National Trust maps out climate threats to historic places
05/03/2021 | news | science | 268
The map will help to plan interventions such as tree planting and peat bog restoration.
1
05/03/2021 11:37:33 4 17
bbc
From the article "data is based on a 'worst-case scenario'"

So a bias report that the IPCC doesnt believe would be probable. The IPCC doesnt believe the rpc8.5 is probable yet still gets used as BAU.

Even a very pro-eco-lobby firm forecasts are not doomsday:
https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/
64
05/03/2021 16:20:52 7 2
bbc
Current policies 2.7-3.1 degrees of AVERAGE temperature rise. Nobody has ever said the world is going to end, that's a hyperbola that people like you use all the time. The world will be a much more difficult place to live though, especially the current coastline, where about 40% of the population of earth lives.
139
06/03/2021 08:28:57 0 1
bbc
Yawn.
2
05/03/2021 11:38:33 4 15
bbc
Based on best case scenario, carry on as normal folks.
5
05/03/2021 11:46:41 3 19
bbc
Nah, more likely the XR sycophants will state that the National Trust model is proof that the end of the world is happening!!

Strange isnt it that the XR & Greta wont everyone else to follow the science that is selected from their shortlist.

Even the IPCC lead author on the 1.5C raises concern on the accuracy of the climate models. Says a lot
8
05/03/2021 11:55:15 3 3
bbc
Yeah, let's just ignore it. Worked so far, hasn't it? ??
3
05/03/2021 11:41:37 5 14
bbc
Early climate models predicted that 2mm / day would be the average across the whole of the UK. Including the Highlands & North Wales, as if ??

Models have their place as an indicator, but need to be treated with care which is the last thing that is happening. Instead more & more outrageous claims are being made solely based on these models.
25
05/03/2021 12:58:09 7 2
bbc
Early models have been improved on. And models *are* treated with care! For example, models have under-predicted actual arctic sea ice loss.
79
05/03/2021 17:49:17 2 1
bbc
Early climate models were superseded and binned years ago. Pointless dragging them up today.
113
05/03/2021 22:56:17 3 1
bbc
'Early climate models predicted that 2mm / day would be the average across the whole of the UK.'

The average what? That sentence doesn't even make sense and would you like to link us to the paper/report involved?
133
06/03/2021 08:19:14 0 1
bbc
Ok let’s move the debate on as they say - do you accept the possibility of anthropogenic climate change and that therefore even if thats modest that in order to enable both conservation of habitat and preservation of species that’s not a risk worth taking and we ought to moderate our behaviours? If you don’t then what’s your point? Are you suggesting that unrestrained pollution is ‘ok’?
182
06/03/2021 12:30:07 1 0
bbc
2 mm per day would imply 7 metres over 10 years. Have you any idea how silly that sounds? Unless you can cite the exact reference, I'll conclude you've just plucked the figure out of your own imagination.
4
05/03/2021 11:43:40 28 8
bbc
I'd rather this effort was put into saving wildlife rather than stately homes.
7
05/03/2021 11:50:54 11 10
bbc
But to what level.

Deer will downgrade wild areas, to gorse & heather. Admittedly that still provide biodiversity. But where deer have been culled then wild growth occurs with a much larger biodiversity. But deer look cute so are not seen as the eco-destroy that they are.

NT encourage deer as they are an attraction, so if anything the NT is being on the hypocritical side of their own arguement.
141
06/03/2021 08:32:32 1 1
bbc
Well if you are an NT member then why not tell them that? Or you could join/ support and volunteer for your local wildlife trust who are entirely focussed on your priority.
2
05/03/2021 11:38:33 4 15
bbc
Based on best case scenario, carry on as normal folks.
5
05/03/2021 11:46:41 3 19
bbc
Nah, more likely the XR sycophants will state that the National Trust model is proof that the end of the world is happening!!

Strange isnt it that the XR & Greta wont everyone else to follow the science that is selected from their shortlist.

Even the IPCC lead author on the 1.5C raises concern on the accuracy of the climate models. Says a lot
80
05/03/2021 17:50:11 3 2
bbc
XR and Greta!!!!!

Oh Dear.

Two things that never come up in scientific discussion.
137
06/03/2021 08:26:30 1 1
bbc
And your point is ? Do humans and their behaviours impact the planets ecosystem or not? If we do isn’t it worth moderating that impact to sustain not only our species but habitable environments for others and those that come after us? Or are you arguing as I suspect for some eugenic ‘great reset’ that the right wing are desperate for to justify their paranoia and fear of change and the ‘other’?
6
05/03/2021 11:47:07 9 10
bbc
There are alternative theories the Gulf Stream will slow down or even cease due to global warming paradoxically leaving us with a much colder climate.
9
05/03/2021 11:55:27 7 11
bbc
The Gulf Stream slowing down is based on computer models.

There are no records of the Gulf Stream flow rates. Surface speeds are influenced by the wind as are not reliable, ask any one who sails the fun of currents vs wind direction.

Speeds measured at various depths are completely lacking and have only started being done in the last decade or so. Some off USA but thats it
10
05/03/2021 12:00:16 2 2
bbc
That is certainly something I was told when I was at a meeting at the University of Southampton Department of Oceanography.
12
05/03/2021 12:18:17 3 2
bbc
I think its more complicated then that. A slow down of the gulf stream would lead to drier, more continental summers which would exacerbate threats highlighted above, such as heat and soil shrinkage.
16
05/03/2021 12:30:53 0 2
bbc
It is due to salinity which is thinning so perhaps we will have colder weather rather than wait for anyone to prove anything.
67
05/03/2021 16:24:53 1 1
bbc
This was introduced in the 1980's. The threat of global warming was described as 'the UK will have temperatures like the Med'.

Clearly this was seen as something to be desired, Within a year or so the theory was that in a warming world the UK would actually get colder and we'd end up like Iceland was presented.

Do you understand why this (and all subsequent ideas) would be viewed as suspicious?
126
06/03/2021 08:01:59 2 2
bbc
No you’re confusing local national weather with climate. We are a sub polar region that without the GS would have Canadian / Scandi winters albeit tempered by our seas. The switching off of the GS is largely precipitated by the Greenland ice cap collapsing over time into the NAD. But the global climate will still warm and before then we’ll have hotter dryer summers and milder wet winters
I'd rather this effort was put into saving wildlife rather than stately homes.
7
05/03/2021 11:50:54 11 10
bbc
But to what level.

Deer will downgrade wild areas, to gorse & heather. Admittedly that still provide biodiversity. But where deer have been culled then wild growth occurs with a much larger biodiversity. But deer look cute so are not seen as the eco-destroy that they are.

NT encourage deer as they are an attraction, so if anything the NT is being on the hypocritical side of their own arguement.
11
05/03/2021 12:16:00 3 5
bbc
The damage deer cause to our natural ecosystems is consistently under-reported. I work closely with members of the Ecological community and have heard on more than one occassion that Essex is a complete ecological write off at that trophic level.
17
05/03/2021 12:32:42 1 3
bbc
Human interference as usual. We need more birds to keep down the ticks along with reptiles and other insects. Wolves will deal with deer. But humans can't deal with wolves. So we have it.
132
06/03/2021 08:19:07 5 1
bbc
NT do not "encourage" deer - they know how damaging they are to the environment. Anyway, how exactly do you encourage deer - offer them free carparking?
2
05/03/2021 11:38:33 4 15
bbc
Based on best case scenario, carry on as normal folks.
8
05/03/2021 11:55:15 3 3
bbc
Yeah, let's just ignore it. Worked so far, hasn't it? ??
30
05/03/2021 13:27:45 3 1
bbc
Er yes.
6
05/03/2021 11:47:07 9 10
bbc
There are alternative theories the Gulf Stream will slow down or even cease due to global warming paradoxically leaving us with a much colder climate.
9
05/03/2021 11:55:27 7 11
bbc
The Gulf Stream slowing down is based on computer models.

There are no records of the Gulf Stream flow rates. Surface speeds are influenced by the wind as are not reliable, ask any one who sails the fun of currents vs wind direction.

Speeds measured at various depths are completely lacking and have only started being done in the last decade or so. Some off USA but thats it
6
05/03/2021 11:47:07 9 10
bbc
There are alternative theories the Gulf Stream will slow down or even cease due to global warming paradoxically leaving us with a much colder climate.
10
05/03/2021 12:00:16 2 2
bbc
That is certainly something I was told when I was at a meeting at the University of Southampton Department of Oceanography.
7
05/03/2021 11:50:54 11 10
bbc
But to what level.

Deer will downgrade wild areas, to gorse & heather. Admittedly that still provide biodiversity. But where deer have been culled then wild growth occurs with a much larger biodiversity. But deer look cute so are not seen as the eco-destroy that they are.

NT encourage deer as they are an attraction, so if anything the NT is being on the hypocritical side of their own arguement.
11
05/03/2021 12:16:00 3 5
bbc
The damage deer cause to our natural ecosystems is consistently under-reported. I work closely with members of the Ecological community and have heard on more than one occassion that Essex is a complete ecological write off at that trophic level.
13
05/03/2021 12:26:05 3 3
bbc
I was surprised by it as well. I was listening to a lecture on forests being downgrade & keystone species. I'm against the sport hunting of all animal inc fishing, but sadly find it a necessity for the culls via rifle. I know others want to reintroduce predators but deer being mauled to death seems inhumane. George Monbiot did a documentary called Apocalypse Cow which is biased but worth a view
6
05/03/2021 11:47:07 9 10
bbc
There are alternative theories the Gulf Stream will slow down or even cease due to global warming paradoxically leaving us with a much colder climate.
12
05/03/2021 12:18:17 3 2
bbc
I think its more complicated then that. A slow down of the gulf stream would lead to drier, more continental summers which would exacerbate threats highlighted above, such as heat and soil shrinkage.
19
05/03/2021 12:38:58 1 4
bbc
Lost the link but....

A team measured to a depth of 600m in the Gulf Of Mexico from 2012? and found that the currents have speeded up. The Gulf Of Mexico currents are part of the Gulf Stream.

Real world measurements supersede computer models. But the growing hysteria of the Gulf Stream is based on **models** only!!!
11
05/03/2021 12:16:00 3 5
bbc
The damage deer cause to our natural ecosystems is consistently under-reported. I work closely with members of the Ecological community and have heard on more than one occassion that Essex is a complete ecological write off at that trophic level.
13
05/03/2021 12:26:05 3 3
bbc
I was surprised by it as well. I was listening to a lecture on forests being downgrade & keystone species. I'm against the sport hunting of all animal inc fishing, but sadly find it a necessity for the culls via rifle. I know others want to reintroduce predators but deer being mauled to death seems inhumane. George Monbiot did a documentary called Apocalypse Cow which is biased but worth a view
14
05/03/2021 12:29:22 4 13
bbc
How much damage is being done by our internet use, beacons for sea and air craft, cell phones, wifi, all these waves we are creating create heat so how to break our addiction to electromagnetic spectra and microwaves? Nature is being disturbed badly by these waves we put out as animals and insects are supersensitive to wavelengths that we are clearly blind to.
59
05/03/2021 15:57:51 9 3
bbc
Are you serious?
129
06/03/2021 08:14:56 3 1
bbc
Oh dear. You do know the Sun is an exposed thermonuclear reaction don’t you and all the piffling little energies we create are swamped in seconds by the radiation we’re bathed in day and night because of it? Radio waves are an utter distraction it’s our carbon release over the past two hundred years that’s the issue and now it’s mainly our transport sector to blame. So stop peddling sideshows
15
05/03/2021 12:30:45 4 23
bbc
Extreme heat and humidity. More climate alarmism

We'll get the occasional heat wave in the summer but no way will we have an extreme climate

National Trust are right to think about preserving our assets but don't overegg it
34
05/03/2021 14:00:42 7 2
bbc
Many parts of the world are already enduring extremes they're not accustomed to.
142
06/03/2021 08:32:42 0 1
bbc
You’re confusing weather and climate again. Never mind.
6
05/03/2021 11:47:07 9 10
bbc
There are alternative theories the Gulf Stream will slow down or even cease due to global warming paradoxically leaving us with a much colder climate.
16
05/03/2021 12:30:53 0 2
bbc
It is due to salinity which is thinning so perhaps we will have colder weather rather than wait for anyone to prove anything.
7
05/03/2021 11:50:54 11 10
bbc
But to what level.

Deer will downgrade wild areas, to gorse & heather. Admittedly that still provide biodiversity. But where deer have been culled then wild growth occurs with a much larger biodiversity. But deer look cute so are not seen as the eco-destroy that they are.

NT encourage deer as they are an attraction, so if anything the NT is being on the hypocritical side of their own arguement.
17
05/03/2021 12:32:42 1 3
bbc
Human interference as usual. We need more birds to keep down the ticks along with reptiles and other insects. Wolves will deal with deer. But humans can't deal with wolves. So we have it.
26
05/03/2021 12:58:36 4 2
bbc
Sadly you're correct that our elimination of predators has exacerbated the problem but so too has the introduction of non native species e.g. we have 6 species of deer in the UK, only two of which are native. What amazes me is if we all communicated better with a common goal in mind we would be able to sort out most of our native ecological issues relatively easily. Climate is another matter ofc.
29
05/03/2021 13:26:32 1 5
bbc
"Human interference as usual." can you explain as its a tad ambiguous

A deer being killed by a high velocity round by an expert will be quick & relatively painless. A deer being chased & mauled to death by wolves is anything but, yet you seem to support the suffering of animal because its natural. I find that immoral.

Look at Australia's history of species introduction going wrong
234
06/03/2021 17:13:08 1 0
bbc
There are Wolves in many parts of Europe and North America. How many have attacked humans. The answer is none. The only opposition to the re-introduction of mammalian predators comes from idiotic farmers. And the Royals.
18
05/03/2021 12:36:17 2 6
bbc
We can live in yurts as subsidence will not effect those. Ham House is close to the Thames and that always flooded since I remember in the 70s. The water table underneath near any water will wet and dry and bring down property no doubt.
12
05/03/2021 12:18:17 3 2
bbc
I think its more complicated then that. A slow down of the gulf stream would lead to drier, more continental summers which would exacerbate threats highlighted above, such as heat and soil shrinkage.
19
05/03/2021 12:38:58 1 4
bbc
Lost the link but....

A team measured to a depth of 600m in the Gulf Of Mexico from 2012? and found that the currents have speeded up. The Gulf Of Mexico currents are part of the Gulf Stream.

Real world measurements supersede computer models. But the growing hysteria of the Gulf Stream is based on **models** only!!!
44
05/03/2021 14:33:54 2 2
bbc
These papers by Caesar et al and Thornalley et al seem to suggest otherwise, Grumpy. Both papers are more recent than 2012 and are based on "real world measurements." Are you peddling misinformation or just misinformed? Hope it's the latter.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0006-5
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0007-4
46
05/03/2021 14:36:38 3 3
bbc
And another thing...

Computer models are almost always based on "real world measurements" because otherwise they wouldn't have any "real world" applicability. You are making yourself sound silly.
74
05/03/2021 16:34:41 1 1
bbc
It's not just about how fast or slow it is, but where it goes.
110
05/03/2021 22:50:02 0 1
bbc
'Lost the link but....'

How very convenient!
20
05/03/2021 12:42:10 2 26
bbc
so in medieval times the world had 25% more Co2 & was considerably hotter, probably as a result of human activity!?!? No, It is part of the sun's rich tapestry of life. Or do we arrogantly assume man can affect climate without any evidence? Interesting to note the BBC elusively avoided a recent report stating that there has been no increase in catastrophic weather events over the last 20+ years.
23
05/03/2021 12:48:44 20 1
bbc
No, the world did not have 25% more CO2 in medieval times.

This is an entirely manufactured controversy. Move on PLEASE.
32
05/03/2021 13:32:51 5 2
bbc
What nonsense. CO2 was much *lower* in medieval times. Please try to get basic facts right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere
149
06/03/2021 08:43:49 0 1
bbc
False. The sun? Ffs what’s that got to do with?
21
05/03/2021 12:46:43 3 7
bbc
Wow, looks like Manchester is going to be the stormiest, hottest, sweatiest, and most heavey place in the UK.

But OK for slope failure, so it's not all downhill for them.
22
05/03/2021 12:46:52 6 23
bbc
The IPCC has an agenda much like the UN on climate change lest we not forget Christiana Figueres, exec secretary of U.N. admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.!!! Hmmm!
24
05/03/2021 12:51:48 18 3
bbc
Capitalism has many downsides, including polluters not paying their fair share.
144
06/03/2021 08:38:25 1 2
bbc
And you think that agenda is a bad idea? Hmm as opposed to what business as usual only even more of it so you can have your cosy existence and not face some modestly inconvenient changes so the a third of the world’s population can stand even a modest chance of never reaching your level of self satisfaction..hmm interesting and such a responsible and caring attitude.
20
05/03/2021 12:42:10 2 26
bbc
so in medieval times the world had 25% more Co2 & was considerably hotter, probably as a result of human activity!?!? No, It is part of the sun's rich tapestry of life. Or do we arrogantly assume man can affect climate without any evidence? Interesting to note the BBC elusively avoided a recent report stating that there has been no increase in catastrophic weather events over the last 20+ years.
23
05/03/2021 12:48:44 20 1
bbc
No, the world did not have 25% more CO2 in medieval times.

This is an entirely manufactured controversy. Move on PLEASE.
90
05/03/2021 20:30:07 0 2
bbc
I think he was trying to point out in the medieval wsrm period which was warmer than today we didn't have as high CO2 levels.
22
05/03/2021 12:46:52 6 23
bbc
The IPCC has an agenda much like the UN on climate change lest we not forget Christiana Figueres, exec secretary of U.N. admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism.!!! Hmmm!
24
05/03/2021 12:51:48 18 3
bbc
Capitalism has many downsides, including polluters not paying their fair share.
31
05/03/2021 13:29:13 3 7
bbc
Churchill said “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”

Could easily apply to capitalism. The alternatives are worse
87
05/03/2021 20:02:42 2 1
bbc
That's not a function of Capitalism, it's a function of human nature, and the people occupying the positions of power.

On paper, Communism would probably be the most fair form of governance, and yet nearly two hundred years of human history indicates that it devolves into totalitarianism and failure. That's not because of a flaw in Marx's logic, it's the nature of Stalin/Mao/Pol Pot.
3
05/03/2021 11:41:37 5 14
bbc
Early climate models predicted that 2mm / day would be the average across the whole of the UK. Including the Highlands & North Wales, as if ??

Models have their place as an indicator, but need to be treated with care which is the last thing that is happening. Instead more & more outrageous claims are being made solely based on these models.
25
05/03/2021 12:58:09 7 2
bbc
Early models have been improved on. And models *are* treated with care! For example, models have under-predicted actual arctic sea ice loss.
27
05/03/2021 13:13:22 0 3
bbc
And still have a long way to go. Or do you think that research is still not going on.

An interesting aspect is how wind, waves & albedo interact. CMs massively oversimplify as it would need too much extra computer resources. Its not as if albedo has any bearing on the climate? or the wind speed or the near surface water vapour.

Or you think its ok to ignore major factors?
...
28
05/03/2021 13:18:40 0 2
bbc
Also within the climate models there is the relationship of how large the timestep & cells are. This has a huge bearing on the results. Plus there are the models that get abandoned due to not fitting the expected results.

When the model cant possible be right because it shows a greening of the Sahara it gets ignored. News flash, the Sahara was very green.

CM are **limited**
17
05/03/2021 12:32:42 1 3
bbc
Human interference as usual. We need more birds to keep down the ticks along with reptiles and other insects. Wolves will deal with deer. But humans can't deal with wolves. So we have it.
26
05/03/2021 12:58:36 4 2
bbc
Sadly you're correct that our elimination of predators has exacerbated the problem but so too has the introduction of non native species e.g. we have 6 species of deer in the UK, only two of which are native. What amazes me is if we all communicated better with a common goal in mind we would be able to sort out most of our native ecological issues relatively easily. Climate is another matter ofc.
25
05/03/2021 12:58:09 7 2
bbc
Early models have been improved on. And models *are* treated with care! For example, models have under-predicted actual arctic sea ice loss.
27
05/03/2021 13:13:22 0 3
bbc
And still have a long way to go. Or do you think that research is still not going on.

An interesting aspect is how wind, waves & albedo interact. CMs massively oversimplify as it would need too much extra computer resources. Its not as if albedo has any bearing on the climate? or the wind speed or the near surface water vapour.

Or you think its ok to ignore major factors?
...
25
05/03/2021 12:58:09 7 2
bbc
Early models have been improved on. And models *are* treated with care! For example, models have under-predicted actual arctic sea ice loss.
28
05/03/2021 13:18:40 0 2
bbc
Also within the climate models there is the relationship of how large the timestep & cells are. This has a huge bearing on the results. Plus there are the models that get abandoned due to not fitting the expected results.

When the model cant possible be right because it shows a greening of the Sahara it gets ignored. News flash, the Sahara was very green.

CM are **limited**
38
05/03/2021 14:15:24 1 1
bbc
AFAIK albedo is absolutely factored in. It doesn't take away from the usefulness of modelling per se. (It's used in many fields of industrial design.) If a model cannot accurately hindcast, then it may be discarded. Seems reasonable to this lay person!
62
05/03/2021 16:17:16 2 1
bbc
Still making stuff up Grumpy.

If a model precited Saharan greening in 2010 based on 1990 data why should it be kept? It's clearly wrong.

CMs are limited, but less limited than they used to be and improving all the time.
17
05/03/2021 12:32:42 1 3
bbc
Human interference as usual. We need more birds to keep down the ticks along with reptiles and other insects. Wolves will deal with deer. But humans can't deal with wolves. So we have it.
29
05/03/2021 13:26:32 1 5
bbc
"Human interference as usual." can you explain as its a tad ambiguous

A deer being killed by a high velocity round by an expert will be quick & relatively painless. A deer being chased & mauled to death by wolves is anything but, yet you seem to support the suffering of animal because its natural. I find that immoral.

Look at Australia's history of species introduction going wrong
36
05/03/2021 14:08:40 4 1
bbc
Wolves were once native here, unlike rabbits and cane toads in Oz.

When wolves returned to parts of north America, the behavioral changes in their prey had a greater impact than the reduction in their numbers e.g. elk avoiding gorges because of the risk of predation led to regeneration of riverine forest.
220
06/03/2021 14:46:36 2 0
bbc
Wolves were native to UK, as for the rifle, wolves are much more selective in finding the weak and the lame, ill. Use both, you end up with better balance, as for all the tosh ref to Aus - why not close all zoos and start funding work in the animals actual environments, while at it stop breeding dogs n cats.
235
06/03/2021 17:15:28 0 0
bbc
What has morals got to do with it? And what's your point about Australia?
8
05/03/2021 11:55:15 3 3
bbc
Yeah, let's just ignore it. Worked so far, hasn't it? ??
30
05/03/2021 13:27:45 3 1
bbc
Er yes.
134
06/03/2021 08:23:26 1 1
bbc
Err no - species loss in the 90% is not ‘worked so far’. Selfish over consumption at the expense of the living planet is not ‘worked so far’ yes we are still here and yes wherever you are in the U.K. is ‘ok’ well that’s nice to be so smug but for at least a third of the world their life is not ‘ok’. Typical ‘ I’m all right Jack’ attitude gets us nowhere.
24
05/03/2021 12:51:48 18 3
bbc
Capitalism has many downsides, including polluters not paying their fair share.
31
05/03/2021 13:29:13 3 7
bbc
Churchill said “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”

Could easily apply to capitalism. The alternatives are worse
33
05/03/2021 13:44:50 3 1
bbc
The analogy is good, but there are versions of both. Neo-liberalism just about leads the field for downsides, which is what we've had to endure since Thatcher/Reagan.
146
06/03/2021 08:40:47 1 2
bbc
Really so you don’t subscribe to social justice? Thought so - it’s official your true colours come out a right wing troll who pontificates from his armchair on any threat of change to your cosy status quo. Yes capitalism works really well - like the nurses 1% is ‘all we can afford’. Your views are pathetic.
20
05/03/2021 12:42:10 2 26
bbc
so in medieval times the world had 25% more Co2 & was considerably hotter, probably as a result of human activity!?!? No, It is part of the sun's rich tapestry of life. Or do we arrogantly assume man can affect climate without any evidence? Interesting to note the BBC elusively avoided a recent report stating that there has been no increase in catastrophic weather events over the last 20+ years.
32
05/03/2021 13:32:51 5 2
bbc
What nonsense. CO2 was much *lower* in medieval times. Please try to get basic facts right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere
35
05/03/2021 14:07:30 1 5
bbc
But the CO2 is not the simple answer the alarmists want it to be.

In a very complex system with numerous interactions then concentrating on one aspect is like unscrambling an egg.

For instance CO2 released from a lump of coal goes into the atmosphere. But say 50% is absorbed by a tree, which then later gets burnt. Lack of C13, C14 will define the CO2 coming from the coal, not from the tree.
40
05/03/2021 14:19:59 1 5
bbc
Humidity aka water vapour has a huge role on temperature yet is ignored. There is no long term history of humidity in any record, so its quite disingenuous to just rely on CO2 records as *the* record.
31
05/03/2021 13:29:13 3 7
bbc
Churchill said “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”

Could easily apply to capitalism. The alternatives are worse
33
05/03/2021 13:44:50 3 1
bbc
The analogy is good, but there are versions of both. Neo-liberalism just about leads the field for downsides, which is what we've had to endure since Thatcher/Reagan.
37
05/03/2021 14:11:31 1 5
bbc
Dont see that from my political view point. I see the extreme left & extreme right on state control of money being equally as bad. And please dont get free-market & capitalism muddled
15
05/03/2021 12:30:45 4 23
bbc
Extreme heat and humidity. More climate alarmism

We'll get the occasional heat wave in the summer but no way will we have an extreme climate

National Trust are right to think about preserving our assets but don't overegg it
34
05/03/2021 14:00:42 7 2
bbc
Many parts of the world are already enduring extremes they're not accustomed to.
39
05/03/2021 14:19:46 2 1
bbc
But there is an over dramatization of events that is at odds with facts. Depending on where you start from hurricanes have increased, yet a longer record so a slight decrease.

Damage by hurricanes is more costly if you just compare it to inflation but then when compared to GDP its about the same.

Not as straight forward as you suggest.
32
05/03/2021 13:32:51 5 2
bbc
What nonsense. CO2 was much *lower* in medieval times. Please try to get basic facts right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere
35
05/03/2021 14:07:30 1 5
bbc
But the CO2 is not the simple answer the alarmists want it to be.

In a very complex system with numerous interactions then concentrating on one aspect is like unscrambling an egg.

For instance CO2 released from a lump of coal goes into the atmosphere. But say 50% is absorbed by a tree, which then later gets burnt. Lack of C13, C14 will define the CO2 coming from the coal, not from the tree.
41
05/03/2021 14:21:19 0 1
bbc
Who is concentrating only on one aspect? Who are the "alarmists"? Are they PhDs in atmospheric physics, or are they celebs? CO2 emission as a matter of public policy is certainly worth concentrating on for all we're worth.
68
05/03/2021 16:27:20 0 1
bbc
No it won't, as that 50% isn't going to end up unmixed in a single tree, is it. Carbon cycle.
97
05/03/2021 22:33:45 0 1
bbc
Still denying the science of AGW and pretending you know better than experts!
29
05/03/2021 13:26:32 1 5
bbc
"Human interference as usual." can you explain as its a tad ambiguous

A deer being killed by a high velocity round by an expert will be quick & relatively painless. A deer being chased & mauled to death by wolves is anything but, yet you seem to support the suffering of animal because its natural. I find that immoral.

Look at Australia's history of species introduction going wrong
36
05/03/2021 14:08:40 4 1
bbc
Wolves were once native here, unlike rabbits and cane toads in Oz.

When wolves returned to parts of north America, the behavioral changes in their prey had a greater impact than the reduction in their numbers e.g. elk avoiding gorges because of the risk of predation led to regeneration of riverine forest.
43
05/03/2021 14:28:57 1 5
bbc
Environmentalist will runover cane toads, thats how bad it is.

Elk=deer for the eco damage they cause. But with millions of Deer in Scotland alone and a wolf killing only 20 deer a year then it would be decades for any impact. Army snipers would make a bigger impact in less time.

Although I do agree that behaviour will change, but it might not be limited to just the prey, as seen in Oz.
33
05/03/2021 13:44:50 3 1
bbc
The analogy is good, but there are versions of both. Neo-liberalism just about leads the field for downsides, which is what we've had to endure since Thatcher/Reagan.
37
05/03/2021 14:11:31 1 5
bbc
Dont see that from my political view point. I see the extreme left & extreme right on state control of money being equally as bad. And please dont get free-market & capitalism muddled
48
05/03/2021 14:40:23 1 1
bbc
We probably agree on the nuances there.
28
05/03/2021 13:18:40 0 2
bbc
Also within the climate models there is the relationship of how large the timestep & cells are. This has a huge bearing on the results. Plus there are the models that get abandoned due to not fitting the expected results.

When the model cant possible be right because it shows a greening of the Sahara it gets ignored. News flash, the Sahara was very green.

CM are **limited**
38
05/03/2021 14:15:24 1 1
bbc
AFAIK albedo is absolutely factored in. It doesn't take away from the usefulness of modelling per se. (It's used in many fields of industrial design.) If a model cannot accurately hindcast, then it may be discarded. Seems reasonable to this lay person!
76
05/03/2021 16:37:09 0 2
bbc
Albedo is only represented by a single value!
Researchers embedded their equations into a RCM to relate the wind & albedo over the sea. Their published results highlighted a difference & stated that their research needed to be included but admitted it was computer intensive & wasnt included in any of the CIMPS. At a guess they should know.
34
05/03/2021 14:00:42 7 2
bbc
Many parts of the world are already enduring extremes they're not accustomed to.
39
05/03/2021 14:19:46 2 1
bbc
But there is an over dramatization of events that is at odds with facts. Depending on where you start from hurricanes have increased, yet a longer record so a slight decrease.

Damage by hurricanes is more costly if you just compare it to inflation but then when compared to GDP its about the same.

Not as straight forward as you suggest.
66
05/03/2021 16:24:30 2 2
bbc
If you start from when we started to make the planet warmer, hurricanes have become stronger.
88
05/03/2021 20:14:52 0 1
bbc
I never mentioned straightforward hurricanes.

38C in the Siberian arctic, -18C in Texas, thousand year old trees dying in Tasmania not dramatic enough?
143
06/03/2021 08:35:28 1 1
bbc
So what- admit that industrialisation has precipitated climate change at a higher rate than ‘background’ or prove it hasn’t. You keep arguing ‘it won’t be that bad’. But prove it. Right the correct code. Advise the world governments that they don’t need to worry. No you won’t and don’t cos you’re a garden shed sceptic and have no influence or responsibility so put up or shut up.
32
05/03/2021 13:32:51 5 2
bbc
What nonsense. CO2 was much *lower* in medieval times. Please try to get basic facts right.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere
40
05/03/2021 14:19:59 1 5
bbc
Humidity aka water vapour has a huge role on temperature yet is ignored. There is no long term history of humidity in any record, so its quite disingenuous to just rely on CO2 records as *the* record.
42
05/03/2021 14:24:05 3 1
bbc
Water vapour is a feedback, not a driver. Because it's a "greenhouse gas" it gets mentioned all the time. But because it condenses and freezes, it has a very different role in the system from CO2, which does not.
70
05/03/2021 16:28:45 1 1
bbc
You know this to be untrue. Water vapour is a consequence of warming, CO2 is a cause. CO2 persists in the atmosphere. Water vapour does not.

It is quite disingenuous to pretend you don't know this when you do.
98
05/03/2021 22:34:25 0 1
bbc
Tosh
35
05/03/2021 14:07:30 1 5
bbc
But the CO2 is not the simple answer the alarmists want it to be.

In a very complex system with numerous interactions then concentrating on one aspect is like unscrambling an egg.

For instance CO2 released from a lump of coal goes into the atmosphere. But say 50% is absorbed by a tree, which then later gets burnt. Lack of C13, C14 will define the CO2 coming from the coal, not from the tree.
41
05/03/2021 14:21:19 0 1
bbc
Who is concentrating only on one aspect? Who are the "alarmists"? Are they PhDs in atmospheric physics, or are they celebs? CO2 emission as a matter of public policy is certainly worth concentrating on for all we're worth.
45
05/03/2021 14:35:40 0 7
bbc
Alarmist is any one from XR,Greta,Bruce to others who use the rpc8.5 as a probable forecast. And that includes the 2000+ papers, tip of iceberg, that the IPCC rebuked the other year. Those 2000+ papers were supported & peer reviewed by more than 2000 scientists!

Now that is a big worry.
At a guess you to have published your own work that is founded on other peer review articles.
40
05/03/2021 14:19:59 1 5
bbc
Humidity aka water vapour has a huge role on temperature yet is ignored. There is no long term history of humidity in any record, so its quite disingenuous to just rely on CO2 records as *the* record.
42
05/03/2021 14:24:05 3 1
bbc
Water vapour is a feedback, not a driver. Because it's a "greenhouse gas" it gets mentioned all the time. But because it condenses and freezes, it has a very different role in the system from CO2, which does not.
47
05/03/2021 14:38:14 0 2
bbc
Didnt say it was a driver. But it cant be ignored as the models do. Its complex & as a result its not fully modelled into the CMs which means ...
36
05/03/2021 14:08:40 4 1
bbc
Wolves were once native here, unlike rabbits and cane toads in Oz.

When wolves returned to parts of north America, the behavioral changes in their prey had a greater impact than the reduction in their numbers e.g. elk avoiding gorges because of the risk of predation led to regeneration of riverine forest.
43
05/03/2021 14:28:57 1 5
bbc
Environmentalist will runover cane toads, thats how bad it is.

Elk=deer for the eco damage they cause. But with millions of Deer in Scotland alone and a wolf killing only 20 deer a year then it would be decades for any impact. Army snipers would make a bigger impact in less time.

Although I do agree that behaviour will change, but it might not be limited to just the prey, as seen in Oz.
19
05/03/2021 12:38:58 1 4
bbc
Lost the link but....

A team measured to a depth of 600m in the Gulf Of Mexico from 2012? and found that the currents have speeded up. The Gulf Of Mexico currents are part of the Gulf Stream.

Real world measurements supersede computer models. But the growing hysteria of the Gulf Stream is based on **models** only!!!
44
05/03/2021 14:33:54 2 2
bbc
These papers by Caesar et al and Thornalley et al seem to suggest otherwise, Grumpy. Both papers are more recent than 2012 and are based on "real world measurements." Are you peddling misinformation or just misinformed? Hope it's the latter.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0006-5
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0007-4
41
05/03/2021 14:21:19 0 1
bbc
Who is concentrating only on one aspect? Who are the "alarmists"? Are they PhDs in atmospheric physics, or are they celebs? CO2 emission as a matter of public policy is certainly worth concentrating on for all we're worth.
45
05/03/2021 14:35:40 0 7
bbc
Alarmist is any one from XR,Greta,Bruce to others who use the rpc8.5 as a probable forecast. And that includes the 2000+ papers, tip of iceberg, that the IPCC rebuked the other year. Those 2000+ papers were supported & peer reviewed by more than 2000 scientists!

Now that is a big worry.
At a guess you to have published your own work that is founded on other peer review articles.
53
05/03/2021 15:00:34 1 2
bbc
My understanding is that RCP 8.5 is generally considered unlikely. Nevertheless the sh t we're in is quite alarming enough for me, thank you very much.
19
05/03/2021 12:38:58 1 4
bbc
Lost the link but....

A team measured to a depth of 600m in the Gulf Of Mexico from 2012? and found that the currents have speeded up. The Gulf Of Mexico currents are part of the Gulf Stream.

Real world measurements supersede computer models. But the growing hysteria of the Gulf Stream is based on **models** only!!!
46
05/03/2021 14:36:38 3 3
bbc
And another thing...

Computer models are almost always based on "real world measurements" because otherwise they wouldn't have any "real world" applicability. You are making yourself sound silly.
51
05/03/2021 14:57:21 0 3
bbc
So the well known conversion of temperature to speed is ?

You seem to use a circular argument as that research was calibrated against the CMs, its in the abstract. That is what I argue against. The models cant be used like that as its putting the model as more real than the physical

btw, well aware of complex computer models & their limitations via post grad research I spent years doing??
42
05/03/2021 14:24:05 3 1
bbc
Water vapour is a feedback, not a driver. Because it's a "greenhouse gas" it gets mentioned all the time. But because it condenses and freezes, it has a very different role in the system from CO2, which does not.
47
05/03/2021 14:38:14 0 2
bbc
Didnt say it was a driver. But it cant be ignored as the models do. Its complex & as a result its not fully modelled into the CMs which means ...
54
05/03/2021 15:04:02 2 1
bbc
A lot of people do make that mistake tho! Don't let them get away with it.

Which models ignore water vapour? Again even this lay person is aware of it as a factor in current modelling.
71
05/03/2021 16:29:36 1 1
bbc
The models don't ignore water vapour, just shows you don't know what you're talking about.
104
05/03/2021 22:36:23 0 1
bbc
Stop making nonsense up.
150
06/03/2021 08:45:25 0 1
bbc
Give us a solution not rhetoric of ‘business as usual’
37
05/03/2021 14:11:31 1 5
bbc
Dont see that from my political view point. I see the extreme left & extreme right on state control of money being equally as bad. And please dont get free-market & capitalism muddled
48
05/03/2021 14:40:23 1 1
bbc
We probably agree on the nuances there.
52
05/03/2021 14:58:18 1 1
bbc
??
I never expect to agree with anyone 100% of the time.
49
05/03/2021 14:54:08 18 16
bbc
The National Trust is obsessed with producing expensive reports. It needs to put more effort into practical things like it used to. Sometimes it’s no more than a talking shop for those who run it at the top. It has lost loads of members in recent times with woke agendas.
61
05/03/2021 16:11:04 9 12
bbc
Complete tosh.
78
05/03/2021 17:48:11 1 2
bbc
It has lost loads of members because all their properties are permanently closed!
122
06/03/2021 07:48:39 4 1
bbc
You might want to read the NTs mission.. “We protect and care for places so people and nature can thrive. We look after the nation's coastline, historic sites, countryside and green spaces, ensuring everyone benefits. With our staff, members, volunteers and supporters, we're the biggest conservation charity in Europe.” It’s not about cream teas and stately homes. Conservation. Get over it.
145
06/03/2021 08:40:11 0 3
bbc
That's the second time I've seen the word woke - not in the context of waking up - must try to find out what this new word means.
Anyway, I tend to agree with your view. Reports are important but they need to be followed by effective action. The Trust made a big deal about planting 20 million trees by 2030 to help fight climate change - I wonder how is that going? I've planted zero this season.
155
06/03/2021 09:31:21 1 2
bbc
Ignorance and prejudice on a monumental scale here.
198
06/03/2021 13:39:49 0 0
bbc
Apparently anything that dares to criticize your world view is "woke" these days... Give it a rest.
50
05/03/2021 14:55:12 31 14
bbc
Anthropogenic climate change deniers just need to be thrown on the same pile as the flat earthers, astrologists and crystal crowd. Ignore them. They have nothing to contribute.

If after all of this time, they still do not understand, despite countless patient explanations, I think society just needs to move on without them.
55
05/03/2021 15:05:34 13 20
bbc
So which IPPC pathway do you think is the probable one?

Cant choose then you are arguing from a position of ignorance. Which would be ironic as that is what you are insulting others of.

And are you that naïve that you believe that science theory has never been corrected? The NT states about their own report they use Worse case, not a probable case but the worse case.
168
06/03/2021 11:17:15 4 1
bbc
I already do label them in the same bunch. They are a disgrace to civilization and just looking at every opportunity to victimize themselves and politicize what is an established scientific fact.
46
05/03/2021 14:36:38 3 3
bbc
And another thing...

Computer models are almost always based on "real world measurements" because otherwise they wouldn't have any "real world" applicability. You are making yourself sound silly.
51
05/03/2021 14:57:21 0 3
bbc
So the well known conversion of temperature to speed is ?

You seem to use a circular argument as that research was calibrated against the CMs, its in the abstract. That is what I argue against. The models cant be used like that as its putting the model as more real than the physical

btw, well aware of complex computer models & their limitations via post grad research I spent years doing??
75
05/03/2021 16:36:08 3 1
bbc
You did years of climate modelling, but still don't know that water vapour is a positive feedback effect of atmospheric temperature. How odd.
111
05/03/2021 22:51:10 0 1
bbc
So you say but you have never provided any evidence that you have ever modelled anything!
48
05/03/2021 14:40:23 1 1
bbc
We probably agree on the nuances there.
52
05/03/2021 14:58:18 1 1
bbc
??
I never expect to agree with anyone 100% of the time.
96
05/03/2021 22:32:29 2 2
bbc
From the evidence on HYS you disagree with everyone 100% of the time!
45
05/03/2021 14:35:40 0 7
bbc
Alarmist is any one from XR,Greta,Bruce to others who use the rpc8.5 as a probable forecast. And that includes the 2000+ papers, tip of iceberg, that the IPCC rebuked the other year. Those 2000+ papers were supported & peer reviewed by more than 2000 scientists!

Now that is a big worry.
At a guess you to have published your own work that is founded on other peer review articles.
53
05/03/2021 15:00:34 1 2
bbc
My understanding is that RCP 8.5 is generally considered unlikely. Nevertheless the sh t we're in is quite alarming enough for me, thank you very much.
56
05/03/2021 15:08:08 0 3
bbc
Look at:

https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/

A group that RogerHorrorbin uses as a source for his opinion pieces.
47
05/03/2021 14:38:14 0 2
bbc
Didnt say it was a driver. But it cant be ignored as the models do. Its complex & as a result its not fully modelled into the CMs which means ...
54
05/03/2021 15:04:02 2 1
bbc
A lot of people do make that mistake tho! Don't let them get away with it.

Which models ignore water vapour? Again even this lay person is aware of it as a factor in current modelling.
57
05/03/2021 15:12:59 0 1
bbc
But severally dumbed down like ocean albedo. As it is too difficult & time consuming to model with the current super computers.

Do you think that the albedo is the same across all oceans & seas. Its easy to visualise than water vapour hence the swap.

Different groups around the world use different single values. Yet research indicates that the impact of over simplifying is measurable on the CMs
50
05/03/2021 14:55:12 31 14
bbc
Anthropogenic climate change deniers just need to be thrown on the same pile as the flat earthers, astrologists and crystal crowd. Ignore them. They have nothing to contribute.

If after all of this time, they still do not understand, despite countless patient explanations, I think society just needs to move on without them.
55
05/03/2021 15:05:34 13 20
bbc
So which IPPC pathway do you think is the probable one?

Cant choose then you are arguing from a position of ignorance. Which would be ironic as that is what you are insulting others of.

And are you that naïve that you believe that science theory has never been corrected? The NT states about their own report they use Worse case, not a probable case but the worse case.
60
05/03/2021 16:10:37 9 4
bbc
Still banging the same drum Grumpy. AGW is the only theory that fits all the evidence.
77
05/03/2021 17:47:25 3 1
bbc
The pathway the IPCC has identified as the highest probability outcome is the obvious one....

But then it all depends on what the world does going forward.
84
05/03/2021 19:34:26 5 2
bbc
We are already seeing worst case scenario flooding in this country. Ahead of schedule. As is Australia with the bushfire crisis last year. Pandemics may well be a common occurrence in future decades. All indicators that the planet cannot sustain humanity consuming and producing at the levels it does currently. Change is inevitable, you might as well embrace it and stop being so stubborn :)
171
06/03/2021 11:21:50 5 2
bbc
There is a universal (100%) consensus that Climate Change is caused by Anthropogenic sources. It is not anyone else's fault but your own that you don't understand this. The scientific debate about if it is happening or not, is over, so give it a rest.

You also don't need the IPCC:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJ6Z04VJDco&list=PL82yk73N8eoX-Xobr_TfHsWPfAIyI7VAP&index=30&ab_channel=potholer54
214
06/03/2021 14:24:20 5 0
bbc
I'm always amazed that your views always seem to be on the far right of the spectrum considering you tell us you are a Liberal Democrat.

What policies of theirs do you actually subscribe to?
53
05/03/2021 15:00:34 1 2
bbc
My understanding is that RCP 8.5 is generally considered unlikely. Nevertheless the sh t we're in is quite alarming enough for me, thank you very much.
56
05/03/2021 15:08:08 0 3
bbc
Look at:

https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/

A group that RogerHorrorbin uses as a source for his opinion pieces.
58
05/03/2021 15:44:45 0 1
bbc
I'm still alarmed, if that's OK with you.
54
05/03/2021 15:04:02 2 1
bbc
A lot of people do make that mistake tho! Don't let them get away with it.

Which models ignore water vapour? Again even this lay person is aware of it as a factor in current modelling.
57
05/03/2021 15:12:59 0 1
bbc
But severally dumbed down like ocean albedo. As it is too difficult & time consuming to model with the current super computers.

Do you think that the albedo is the same across all oceans & seas. Its easy to visualise than water vapour hence the swap.

Different groups around the world use different single values. Yet research indicates that the impact of over simplifying is measurable on the CMs
73
05/03/2021 16:31:29 1 1
bbc
Albedo is not averaged to a single value, but beyond a certain depth all water has the same albedo.
56
05/03/2021 15:08:08 0 3
bbc
Look at:

https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/

A group that RogerHorrorbin uses as a source for his opinion pieces.
58
05/03/2021 15:44:45 0 1
bbc
I'm still alarmed, if that's OK with you.
65
05/03/2021 16:21:15 0 1
bbc
Its entirely up to you.

To me the "Pledges & Targets" is the probable worse case. Yet the issues caused by that can be mitigated. 1 m sealevel rise added to the UK tidal range has in many areas already been defended against. Abroad various deltas have grown more that any sealevel rise.

Changes in weather patterns could cause an occasional issue, but we always had floods, droughts etc.
69
05/03/2021 16:28:12 0 1
bbc
I'm more concerned with the destruction of carbon sinks that is taking a back seat to the CO2 emissions. Sugar cane farms in Queensland have caused bigger ocean carbon sink destruction than a small temp rise. Destroy the carbon sinks & the emissions stay in the atmosphere.
Its only in the last decade that research has really started got enough traction to challenge many wrong assumptions.
14
05/03/2021 12:29:22 4 13
bbc
How much damage is being done by our internet use, beacons for sea and air craft, cell phones, wifi, all these waves we are creating create heat so how to break our addiction to electromagnetic spectra and microwaves? Nature is being disturbed badly by these waves we put out as animals and insects are supersensitive to wavelengths that we are clearly blind to.
59
05/03/2021 15:57:51 9 3
bbc
Are you serious?
63
05/03/2021 16:19:37 1 1
bbc
Na, must be from Glastonbury (the town not the festival) where the town council recently banned 5G because of 'the damaging rays man'!
55
05/03/2021 15:05:34 13 20
bbc
So which IPPC pathway do you think is the probable one?

Cant choose then you are arguing from a position of ignorance. Which would be ironic as that is what you are insulting others of.

And are you that naïve that you believe that science theory has never been corrected? The NT states about their own report they use Worse case, not a probable case but the worse case.
60
05/03/2021 16:10:37 9 4
bbc
Still banging the same drum Grumpy. AGW is the only theory that fits all the evidence.
49
05/03/2021 14:54:08 18 16
bbc
The National Trust is obsessed with producing expensive reports. It needs to put more effort into practical things like it used to. Sometimes it’s no more than a talking shop for those who run it at the top. It has lost loads of members in recent times with woke agendas.
61
05/03/2021 16:11:04 9 12
bbc
Complete tosh.
28
05/03/2021 13:18:40 0 2
bbc
Also within the climate models there is the relationship of how large the timestep & cells are. This has a huge bearing on the results. Plus there are the models that get abandoned due to not fitting the expected results.

When the model cant possible be right because it shows a greening of the Sahara it gets ignored. News flash, the Sahara was very green.

CM are **limited**
62
05/03/2021 16:17:16 2 1
bbc
Still making stuff up Grumpy.

If a model precited Saharan greening in 2010 based on 1990 data why should it be kept? It's clearly wrong.

CMs are limited, but less limited than they used to be and improving all the time.
91
05/03/2021 20:40:00 0 2
bbc
You do know parts of the Sahara are greening
59
05/03/2021 15:57:51 9 3
bbc
Are you serious?
63
05/03/2021 16:19:37 1 1
bbc
Na, must be from Glastonbury (the town not the festival) where the town council recently banned 5G because of 'the damaging rays man'!
72
05/03/2021 16:30:20 0 1
bbc
And the city of Bath??
1
05/03/2021 11:37:33 4 17
bbc
From the article "data is based on a 'worst-case scenario'"

So a bias report that the IPCC doesnt believe would be probable. The IPCC doesnt believe the rpc8.5 is probable yet still gets used as BAU.

Even a very pro-eco-lobby firm forecasts are not doomsday:
https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/
64
05/03/2021 16:20:52 7 2
bbc
Current policies 2.7-3.1 degrees of AVERAGE temperature rise. Nobody has ever said the world is going to end, that's a hyperbola that people like you use all the time. The world will be a much more difficult place to live though, especially the current coastline, where about 40% of the population of earth lives.
140
06/03/2021 08:32:06 1 1
bbc
Grumpy either is deliberately stupid or does like the fact the Earth will just be here long after all of us. Typical right wing troll who wants to deny any harm in their behaviours and longs for no change due to his/her fear of change and ‘others’. Why else would saddoes like him pick on a teenage girl? Cos they’re cosy sense of privilege is threatened. By a 16 year old.
58
05/03/2021 15:44:45 0 1
bbc
I'm still alarmed, if that's OK with you.
65
05/03/2021 16:21:15 0 1
bbc
Its entirely up to you.

To me the "Pledges & Targets" is the probable worse case. Yet the issues caused by that can be mitigated. 1 m sealevel rise added to the UK tidal range has in many areas already been defended against. Abroad various deltas have grown more that any sealevel rise.

Changes in weather patterns could cause an occasional issue, but we always had floods, droughts etc.
106
05/03/2021 22:44:42 0 1
bbc
You don't understand tidal range as you have clearly demonstrated before and you don't understand that a 1 metre increase in mean sea level mean doesn't take into account the much higher levels that will occur under storm conditions. a great deal of the UK is not protected against this.
39
05/03/2021 14:19:46 2 1
bbc
But there is an over dramatization of events that is at odds with facts. Depending on where you start from hurricanes have increased, yet a longer record so a slight decrease.

Damage by hurricanes is more costly if you just compare it to inflation but then when compared to GDP its about the same.

Not as straight forward as you suggest.
66
05/03/2021 16:24:30 2 2
bbc
If you start from when we started to make the planet warmer, hurricanes have become stronger.
6
05/03/2021 11:47:07 9 10
bbc
There are alternative theories the Gulf Stream will slow down or even cease due to global warming paradoxically leaving us with a much colder climate.
67
05/03/2021 16:24:53 1 1
bbc
This was introduced in the 1980's. The threat of global warming was described as 'the UK will have temperatures like the Med'.

Clearly this was seen as something to be desired, Within a year or so the theory was that in a warming world the UK would actually get colder and we'd end up like Iceland was presented.

Do you understand why this (and all subsequent ideas) would be viewed as suspicious?
35
05/03/2021 14:07:30 1 5
bbc
But the CO2 is not the simple answer the alarmists want it to be.

In a very complex system with numerous interactions then concentrating on one aspect is like unscrambling an egg.

For instance CO2 released from a lump of coal goes into the atmosphere. But say 50% is absorbed by a tree, which then later gets burnt. Lack of C13, C14 will define the CO2 coming from the coal, not from the tree.
68
05/03/2021 16:27:20 0 1
bbc
No it won't, as that 50% isn't going to end up unmixed in a single tree, is it. Carbon cycle.
58
05/03/2021 15:44:45 0 1
bbc
I'm still alarmed, if that's OK with you.
69
05/03/2021 16:28:12 0 1
bbc
I'm more concerned with the destruction of carbon sinks that is taking a back seat to the CO2 emissions. Sugar cane farms in Queensland have caused bigger ocean carbon sink destruction than a small temp rise. Destroy the carbon sinks & the emissions stay in the atmosphere.
Its only in the last decade that research has really started got enough traction to challenge many wrong assumptions.
86
05/03/2021 20:00:12 0 1
bbc
It's increasingly accepted that conservation is at least as important. There are reasons besides the greenhouse effect to move away from the FF economy, especially air quality in cities. The associated burden of ill health has its own massive costs.
107
05/03/2021 22:45:33 0 1
bbc
Absolute twaddle
40
05/03/2021 14:19:59 1 5
bbc
Humidity aka water vapour has a huge role on temperature yet is ignored. There is no long term history of humidity in any record, so its quite disingenuous to just rely on CO2 records as *the* record.
70
05/03/2021 16:28:45 1 1
bbc
You know this to be untrue. Water vapour is a consequence of warming, CO2 is a cause. CO2 persists in the atmosphere. Water vapour does not.

It is quite disingenuous to pretend you don't know this when you do.
47
05/03/2021 14:38:14 0 2
bbc
Didnt say it was a driver. But it cant be ignored as the models do. Its complex & as a result its not fully modelled into the CMs which means ...
71
05/03/2021 16:29:36 1 1
bbc
The models don't ignore water vapour, just shows you don't know what you're talking about.
63
05/03/2021 16:19:37 1 1
bbc
Na, must be from Glastonbury (the town not the festival) where the town council recently banned 5G because of 'the damaging rays man'!
72
05/03/2021 16:30:20 0 1
bbc
And the city of Bath??
57
05/03/2021 15:12:59 0 1
bbc
But severally dumbed down like ocean albedo. As it is too difficult & time consuming to model with the current super computers.

Do you think that the albedo is the same across all oceans & seas. Its easy to visualise than water vapour hence the swap.

Different groups around the world use different single values. Yet research indicates that the impact of over simplifying is measurable on the CMs
73
05/03/2021 16:31:29 1 1
bbc
Albedo is not averaged to a single value, but beyond a certain depth all water has the same albedo.
19
05/03/2021 12:38:58 1 4
bbc
Lost the link but....

A team measured to a depth of 600m in the Gulf Of Mexico from 2012? and found that the currents have speeded up. The Gulf Of Mexico currents are part of the Gulf Stream.

Real world measurements supersede computer models. But the growing hysteria of the Gulf Stream is based on **models** only!!!
74
05/03/2021 16:34:41 1 1
bbc
It's not just about how fast or slow it is, but where it goes.
51
05/03/2021 14:57:21 0 3
bbc
So the well known conversion of temperature to speed is ?

You seem to use a circular argument as that research was calibrated against the CMs, its in the abstract. That is what I argue against. The models cant be used like that as its putting the model as more real than the physical

btw, well aware of complex computer models & their limitations via post grad research I spent years doing??
75
05/03/2021 16:36:08 3 1
bbc
You did years of climate modelling, but still don't know that water vapour is a positive feedback effect of atmospheric temperature. How odd.
112
05/03/2021 22:53:29 2 1
bbc
Grumpy has not done years of climate modelling. He claims he is an expert computer modeller but has always declined to tell us in what field or even in what general discipline, which probably means in no field or discipline at all.
38
05/03/2021 14:15:24 1 1
bbc
AFAIK albedo is absolutely factored in. It doesn't take away from the usefulness of modelling per se. (It's used in many fields of industrial design.) If a model cannot accurately hindcast, then it may be discarded. Seems reasonable to this lay person!
76
05/03/2021 16:37:09 0 2
bbc
Albedo is only represented by a single value!
Researchers embedded their equations into a RCM to relate the wind & albedo over the sea. Their published results highlighted a difference & stated that their research needed to be included but admitted it was computer intensive & wasnt included in any of the CIMPS. At a guess they should know.
55
05/03/2021 15:05:34 13 20
bbc
So which IPPC pathway do you think is the probable one?

Cant choose then you are arguing from a position of ignorance. Which would be ironic as that is what you are insulting others of.

And are you that naïve that you believe that science theory has never been corrected? The NT states about their own report they use Worse case, not a probable case but the worse case.
77
05/03/2021 17:47:25 3 1
bbc
The pathway the IPCC has identified as the highest probability outcome is the obvious one....

But then it all depends on what the world does going forward.
81
05/03/2021 19:00:07 2 5
bbc
Which is not the 8.5 pathway, nor all the ice in the world melting.
It is **not** what the alarmist are promoting. You may not like the term of those who only see the most pessimistic as the most likely but what would you call them?

btw, that does include a lot of scientist that the IPCC rebuke for using the 8.5 as BAU including the peer reviewers. Its a lot of noisy people.
49
05/03/2021 14:54:08 18 16
bbc
The National Trust is obsessed with producing expensive reports. It needs to put more effort into practical things like it used to. Sometimes it’s no more than a talking shop for those who run it at the top. It has lost loads of members in recent times with woke agendas.
78
05/03/2021 17:48:11 1 2
bbc
It has lost loads of members because all their properties are permanently closed!
3
05/03/2021 11:41:37 5 14
bbc
Early climate models predicted that 2mm / day would be the average across the whole of the UK. Including the Highlands & North Wales, as if ??

Models have their place as an indicator, but need to be treated with care which is the last thing that is happening. Instead more & more outrageous claims are being made solely based on these models.
79
05/03/2021 17:49:17 2 1
bbc
Early climate models were superseded and binned years ago. Pointless dragging them up today.
82
05/03/2021 19:03:12 0 2
bbc
It was to make pertinent point that as yesteryears models were found to be wanting, so will todays models.

Are you aware what the most significant change in the poor models 8 years ago were compared to the sims running now?
5
05/03/2021 11:46:41 3 19
bbc
Nah, more likely the XR sycophants will state that the National Trust model is proof that the end of the world is happening!!

Strange isnt it that the XR & Greta wont everyone else to follow the science that is selected from their shortlist.

Even the IPCC lead author on the 1.5C raises concern on the accuracy of the climate models. Says a lot
80
05/03/2021 17:50:11 3 2
bbc
XR and Greta!!!!!

Oh Dear.

Two things that never come up in scientific discussion.
83
05/03/2021 19:04:49 0 2
bbc
Really they are the ones with a lot of their fans who shout at others to listen to the scientists. Or were you deafened to much by their shouting to hear their message?
77
05/03/2021 17:47:25 3 1
bbc
The pathway the IPCC has identified as the highest probability outcome is the obvious one....

But then it all depends on what the world does going forward.
81
05/03/2021 19:00:07 2 5
bbc
Which is not the 8.5 pathway, nor all the ice in the world melting.
It is **not** what the alarmist are promoting. You may not like the term of those who only see the most pessimistic as the most likely but what would you call them?

btw, that does include a lot of scientist that the IPCC rebuke for using the 8.5 as BAU including the peer reviewers. Its a lot of noisy people.
95
05/03/2021 22:30:34 6 1
bbc
Further red herrings to try and disguise your stance as an AGW denier - the IPCC have not said AGW is not a serious issue and there are papers which demonstrate emissions and warming are currently following the 8.5 pathway.
79
05/03/2021 17:49:17 2 1
bbc
Early climate models were superseded and binned years ago. Pointless dragging them up today.
82
05/03/2021 19:03:12 0 2
bbc
It was to make pertinent point that as yesteryears models were found to be wanting, so will todays models.

Are you aware what the most significant change in the poor models 8 years ago were compared to the sims running now?
80
05/03/2021 17:50:11 3 2
bbc
XR and Greta!!!!!

Oh Dear.

Two things that never come up in scientific discussion.
83
05/03/2021 19:04:49 0 2
bbc
Really they are the ones with a lot of their fans who shout at others to listen to the scientists. Or were you deafened to much by their shouting to hear their message?
101
05/03/2021 22:52:50 0 2
bbc
Says a bunch of people on an echoing thread. Lol.
115
05/03/2021 23:02:13 2 1
bbc
It is absolutely obvious from your very large number of posts on HYS that you absolutelydon't listen to highly qualified, research experienced and published climate scientists because very bizarrely you think you know better than them without having any relevant qualifications, research or publications.
55
05/03/2021 15:05:34 13 20
bbc
So which IPPC pathway do you think is the probable one?

Cant choose then you are arguing from a position of ignorance. Which would be ironic as that is what you are insulting others of.

And are you that naïve that you believe that science theory has never been corrected? The NT states about their own report they use Worse case, not a probable case but the worse case.
84
05/03/2021 19:34:26 5 2
bbc
We are already seeing worst case scenario flooding in this country. Ahead of schedule. As is Australia with the bushfire crisis last year. Pandemics may well be a common occurrence in future decades. All indicators that the planet cannot sustain humanity consuming and producing at the levels it does currently. Change is inevitable, you might as well embrace it and stop being so stubborn :)
169
06/03/2021 11:17:53 0 8
bbc
Your post goes to political nihilism so quickly.

Floods have happened for a very long time, the flood in Wales over the last few years was a lot of bad luck. If the downpour happened in the next valley then it would have been a non-event, not news. Look at the comment from the MetOffice going back over the last 18 months.

National Trust stated that they use the "worst" case which is wrong.
85
05/03/2021 19:45:13 1 2
bbc
C4 news on the National Trust / climate "crisis"

It's right here, right now.

Could be a song in that
69
05/03/2021 16:28:12 0 1
bbc
I'm more concerned with the destruction of carbon sinks that is taking a back seat to the CO2 emissions. Sugar cane farms in Queensland have caused bigger ocean carbon sink destruction than a small temp rise. Destroy the carbon sinks & the emissions stay in the atmosphere.
Its only in the last decade that research has really started got enough traction to challenge many wrong assumptions.
86
05/03/2021 20:00:12 0 1
bbc
It's increasingly accepted that conservation is at least as important. There are reasons besides the greenhouse effect to move away from the FF economy, especially air quality in cities. The associated burden of ill health has its own massive costs.
24
05/03/2021 12:51:48 18 3
bbc
Capitalism has many downsides, including polluters not paying their fair share.
87
05/03/2021 20:02:42 2 1
bbc
That's not a function of Capitalism, it's a function of human nature, and the people occupying the positions of power.

On paper, Communism would probably be the most fair form of governance, and yet nearly two hundred years of human history indicates that it devolves into totalitarianism and failure. That's not because of a flaw in Marx's logic, it's the nature of Stalin/Mao/Pol Pot.
148
06/03/2021 08:43:00 1 2
bbc
And you think neoliberal western ‘democracies’ with their controlling elites and fiscal measures of control are democracies then? So the fact we’ve had one blend of economy for over two hundred years and yet we’ve still got 3million starving children is ‘ok’? Hmm
39
05/03/2021 14:19:46 2 1
bbc
But there is an over dramatization of events that is at odds with facts. Depending on where you start from hurricanes have increased, yet a longer record so a slight decrease.

Damage by hurricanes is more costly if you just compare it to inflation but then when compared to GDP its about the same.

Not as straight forward as you suggest.
88
05/03/2021 20:14:52 0 1
bbc
I never mentioned straightforward hurricanes.

38C in the Siberian arctic, -18C in Texas, thousand year old trees dying in Tasmania not dramatic enough?
89
05/03/2021 20:23:24 5 16
bbc
So this is the first time the UK has climate change? No there were the ice ages, the flooding of dogger bank to make the north sea, the ancient rain forests ..........

Some people just dont understand change is always happening.
94
05/03/2021 22:27:22 13 3
bbc
And some people are unable to understand the difference between change induced by human activity and change due to non-human factors.
153
06/03/2021 08:57:47 0 2
bbc
Clearly you don't understand!
23
05/03/2021 12:48:44 20 1
bbc
No, the world did not have 25% more CO2 in medieval times.

This is an entirely manufactured controversy. Move on PLEASE.
90
05/03/2021 20:30:07 0 2
bbc
I think he was trying to point out in the medieval wsrm period which was warmer than today we didn't have as high CO2 levels.
102
05/03/2021 22:56:21 0 1
bbc
Nor was the medieval warm period a global phenomenon. It was localised. Global average temperatures were not higher in that period, only those in Europe.
108
05/03/2021 22:46:53 1 1
bbc
Please stop repeating the untruth that earth temperatures were higher in the MWP than now because it has been definitively shown they were not.
62
05/03/2021 16:17:16 2 1
bbc
Still making stuff up Grumpy.

If a model precited Saharan greening in 2010 based on 1990 data why should it be kept? It's clearly wrong.

CMs are limited, but less limited than they used to be and improving all the time.
91
05/03/2021 20:40:00 0 2
bbc
You do know parts of the Sahara are greening
99
05/03/2021 22:46:43 2 1
bbc
Other than some areas greened by artificial irrigation, it isn't. It's growing.
92
05/03/2021 20:43:58 1 12
bbc
Could somebody explain why the amount of Snow in the Northern hemisphere is record breaking and arctic ice volume is increasing more than has been seen for several years.
100
05/03/2021 22:50:08 12 2
bbc
Because you're lying?
127
06/03/2021 08:07:51 4 2
bbc
Because you made it up and you confuse weather in some locations with anthropogenic climate change induced by CO2 release from fossil fuels and of course like any feedback loop that’s complex because of course the scientists understand that there are multiple short medium and long term cycles driven by sometimes conflicting patterns. But it doesn’t change the likely outcome for our planet.
152
06/03/2021 08:56:50 3 2
bbc
No one can as neither is true! Where did read such drivel!
256
06/03/2021 18:24:17 1 0
bbc
Fair questions

Snow is precipitation, water falling out of the sky. To get it there, you have to evaporate water from lakes and oceans. Warmer oceans evaporate more water, so more water falls, as rain and snow.

Arctic minimum Summer ice extent is decreasing faster than Winter maximum. The gap between them is increasing. A greater change in the same time requires a faster rate of change.
93
05/03/2021 21:39:45 9 6
bbc
Erosion is a natural occurrence and has been going on ever since we have had a coast. You can slow it but the sea will take over eventually.
116
05/03/2021 23:45:14 11 9
bbc
The proposition that the climate today should somehow be preserved and forever unchanged is absurd.

There are some very good reasons for being concerned over pollution and finite natural resources.

But we simply need to adapt to a changing climate.
135
06/03/2021 08:23:38 2 2
bbc
Oh dear - what school did you go to?
179
06/03/2021 12:00:08 3 0
bbc
True, but that isn't the problem being highlighted. Anthropogenic Climate Change is accelerating the rate of coastal erosion and weathering and as a result, areas that were predicted to fall into the sea in "x" amount of years are falling there much sooner. That is why the NT is concerned.
89
05/03/2021 20:23:24 5 16
bbc
So this is the first time the UK has climate change? No there were the ice ages, the flooding of dogger bank to make the north sea, the ancient rain forests ..........

Some people just dont understand change is always happening.
94
05/03/2021 22:27:22 13 3
bbc
And some people are unable to understand the difference between change induced by human activity and change due to non-human factors.
128
06/03/2021 08:11:21 1 3
bbc
Well said . They don’t get geologic epochal change versus anthropogenic forced change. That’s because they don’t see Earth as a system and hence have no respect for it.. the weather ‘happens’. They also don’t understand that sudden dramatic flips can occur by events that precipitate that because they’re locked in human observational time.
81
05/03/2021 19:00:07 2 5
bbc
Which is not the 8.5 pathway, nor all the ice in the world melting.
It is **not** what the alarmist are promoting. You may not like the term of those who only see the most pessimistic as the most likely but what would you call them?

btw, that does include a lot of scientist that the IPCC rebuke for using the 8.5 as BAU including the peer reviewers. Its a lot of noisy people.
95
05/03/2021 22:30:34 6 1
bbc
Further red herrings to try and disguise your stance as an AGW denier - the IPCC have not said AGW is not a serious issue and there are papers which demonstrate emissions and warming are currently following the 8.5 pathway.
52
05/03/2021 14:58:18 1 1
bbc
??
I never expect to agree with anyone 100% of the time.
96
05/03/2021 22:32:29 2 2
bbc
From the evidence on HYS you disagree with everyone 100% of the time!
35
05/03/2021 14:07:30 1 5
bbc
But the CO2 is not the simple answer the alarmists want it to be.

In a very complex system with numerous interactions then concentrating on one aspect is like unscrambling an egg.

For instance CO2 released from a lump of coal goes into the atmosphere. But say 50% is absorbed by a tree, which then later gets burnt. Lack of C13, C14 will define the CO2 coming from the coal, not from the tree.
97
05/03/2021 22:33:45 0 1
bbc
Still denying the science of AGW and pretending you know better than experts!
40
05/03/2021 14:19:59 1 5
bbc
Humidity aka water vapour has a huge role on temperature yet is ignored. There is no long term history of humidity in any record, so its quite disingenuous to just rely on CO2 records as *the* record.
98
05/03/2021 22:34:25 0 1
bbc
Tosh
91
05/03/2021 20:40:00 0 2
bbc
You do know parts of the Sahara are greening
99
05/03/2021 22:46:43 2 1
bbc
Other than some areas greened by artificial irrigation, it isn't. It's growing.
92
05/03/2021 20:43:58 1 12
bbc
Could somebody explain why the amount of Snow in the Northern hemisphere is record breaking and arctic ice volume is increasing more than has been seen for several years.
100
05/03/2021 22:50:08 12 2
bbc
Because you're lying?