Covid: React study finds virus decline slowing in England
04/03/2021 | news | health | 417
Infections fell by two-thirds in lockdown but one in 200 people still have the virus, a study says.
1
04/03/2021 10:09:53 30 4
bbc
Of course it is. It would never decline in a linear trend. That doesn’t happen.
2
04/03/2021 10:12:08 11 10
bbc
It declines in a linear fashion between any two measurements though -;)
1
04/03/2021 10:09:53 30 4
bbc
Of course it is. It would never decline in a linear trend. That doesn’t happen.
2
04/03/2021 10:12:08 11 10
bbc
It declines in a linear fashion between any two measurements though -;)
141
04/03/2021 11:54:13 7 1
bbc
A mathematician requires 3 data points to describe a linear graph, a scientist 2, and a politician or journalist just 1...
3
04/03/2021 10:12:33 29 4
bbc
Surely any discussion about changes in rate really, really need to at least mention logarithmic graphs?

R numbers, case rates etc rise or fall exponentially, which is why on a linear scale, the numbers always look massive (in both directions) when cases are high

Indeed that's *why* having high case rates is so dangerous

Lack of understanding of this is a massive issue in the pandemic
4
04/03/2021 10:13:00 63 7
bbc
A slowing in the decline of infections should be expected because of exponential decay behaviour.

However, reported deaths and admissions appear to have recently started to defy this and exhibit a more linear decline, which would make sense as the vaccine programme effects increase.

Regardless of where infections go from here, the vaccines are making infection numbers less relevant.
7
Bob
04/03/2021 10:15:29 8 5
bbc
That's because deaths lag so anything reflected in this latest report with regards to cases isn't going to be seen in deaths yet, and as you point out, vaccines.
54
04/03/2021 10:46:54 0 13
bbc
Wrong. A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
142
04/03/2021 11:54:35 5 5
bbc
Vaccines don't PREVENT people from being ill and dying. They reduce the risk - by about 80%.

We've had 150k deaths so far DESPITE lockdowns etc.

If the virus is allowed to spread willy nilly, far far more will yet die, vaccine or no vaccine, never mind the tens (hundreds?) of thousands of all ages who will suffer life-changing issues from long-covid.
5
04/03/2021 10:14:07 24 3
bbc
If you look at the report data , this is based on finding 301 positives in the whole country. Hardly reliable
301
04/03/2021 15:33:12 0 1
bbc
ONS and REACT has been unreliable since the start. The main reason for the UK’s poor pandemic management.
6
04/03/2021 10:15:22 154 18
bbc
The elephant in the room here is uptake of vaccines in ethnic minorities and quasi identifiable social groups. There will be huge resentment should it appear that vaccine refusal by a few is creating a situation where Covid levels in those populations do not allow the lifting of restrictions on the many. At the least this could manifest as non compliance when we should be listening to the experts.
14
04/03/2021 10:19:24 98 17
bbc
good post.sadly the facts say this is so.expect your post and mine will be taken down.not allowed to speak the truth anymore.
18
04/03/2021 10:24:11 9 71
bbc
The problem is significant institutional racism. As the Labour Party continually and rightly state, until we tackle that, we can’t move forward. Fortunately footballers taking the knee is making significant progress but it won’t change overnight
27
04/03/2021 10:25:37 4 32
bbc
ask yourself with western countries have more covid...pubs clubs are the causes
28
04/03/2021 10:26:14 18 6
bbc
Are white anti-vaxers a quasi identifiable social groups ?
Spect this'll get taken down etc etc . . .
116
Ian
04/03/2021 11:30:07 30 11
bbc
It's essential we have vaccine passports.

If communities are refusing to vaccinate, they should be excluded from travel, cinema and some public facilities.

This is a matter of life and death.
117
04/03/2021 11:30:21 6 44
bbc
Utter rubbish
145
04/03/2021 12:00:58 3 5
bbc
Anybody would think that the heroic overseas vaccine-sceptic care/medical staff were in it purely for the economic benefits...
160
04/03/2021 12:33:56 6 1
bbc
I agree to an extent but we are close to crossing into a public health moral minefield. Should people be allowed to turn down the vaccine due to religious beliefs, cultural beliefs or due to an anti-vax belieff. Or should all be forced to have it because while we shouldn't infringe on peoples rights, its unfair for people to jeopardise the lives of others by not being vaccinated.
180
04/03/2021 12:45:32 6 2
bbc
That is the case near me. There seems to be resistance in the Muslim community particular. And yes, I do know some of them, so I know people are suffering badly with Covid. I also kw a white transplant patient who refuses to be vaccinated too, ridiculous. Everyone from all communities should be sensible and take a vaccine!
236
04/03/2021 13:33:52 1 3
bbc
What experts would that be....SAGE? About time the government widened the net and listened and collaborated with other experts from the scientific community.
238
04/03/2021 13:42:21 1 1
bbc
Bigger elephant, the unvaccinated rest of World, and mutation risk, should we resent them ?

Vaccines should protect against serious illness, if everybody has been offered a vaccine then we should reach a point, as yet unknown, where we will be able to open up U.K again.

Those that have chosen not too, it's their choice, bearing in mind the vaccine won't protect all the people all of the time.
255
04/03/2021 14:03:43 1 5
bbc
100s of yrs of slavery, and dominating empire - then a few years of fight back and man the 'white' man complains... your equality sucked the life out of millions... and youre complaining of real fair play.
259
04/03/2021 14:15:53 1 2
bbc
I disagree. The “elephant in the room” (as you put it) is selfish individuals (from ALL backgrounds) who fail to follow guidelines. I find that very few people follow social distancing directives when I do my weekly shop & I saw at least 20 people playing basketball when I went for a walk at the weekend. Your rhetoric blaming ethnic minorities IF infections rise again is a dangerous one.
267
04/03/2021 14:44:24 0 1
bbc
The irony is that inoculation came from Africa. I would ask if a similar resentment to that of which you speak is currently evident, given that multiple parties, weddings and other such gatherings of, in some cases, hundreds of people have been exposed and have been taking place since the first "lockdown" last March?
335
04/03/2021 16:32:01 1 1
bbc
Some stats: of the 20m people who have been vaccinated if 85% of Brits are white and 15% are not and the uptake of vaccines is 85% amongst white Brits and 65% amongst ethnic minorities that equals 2.6m unvaccinated white Brits vs 1.1m in minorities.

A uneven balance perhaps, but % of ethnic vaccine refusers means less to the whole country when minorities make up so little of the population.
339
04/03/2021 16:52:22 0 1
bbc
I listen to experts but not those paid by gov and media.
4
04/03/2021 10:13:00 63 7
bbc
A slowing in the decline of infections should be expected because of exponential decay behaviour.

However, reported deaths and admissions appear to have recently started to defy this and exhibit a more linear decline, which would make sense as the vaccine programme effects increase.

Regardless of where infections go from here, the vaccines are making infection numbers less relevant.
7
Bob
04/03/2021 10:15:29 8 5
bbc
That's because deaths lag so anything reflected in this latest report with regards to cases isn't going to be seen in deaths yet, and as you point out, vaccines.
43
04/03/2021 10:42:30 2 1
bbc
There's also quite a large lag on the report - their data is only up to 23rd February so of course it can't tell us anything about the last week and a half and the fall in cases has increased again in that period.
352
04/03/2021 17:16:58 0 1
bbc
If you try and correlate infections with deaths there was a very good correlation for about two weeks. However in the last week or so the death rate is falling significantly faster than that correlation predicted which may well be down to vaccinations.
8
04/03/2021 10:12:26 5 4
bbc
lets hope this does not lead to a 3rd wave.
60
04/03/2021 10:49:21 2 8
bbc
Bed wetter
91
04/03/2021 11:13:23 2 1
bbc
It hasn’t. Cases have fallen faster again since then.
9
04/03/2021 10:17:14 6 5
bbc
We’ve got vaccines now so we should stop worrying about cases and start worrying about all the other health problems wrongly ignored this last year now we’re getting Covid under control.
49
04/03/2021 10:44:48 4 4
bbc
If we can get down to under 500 cases a day, and dropping, with deaths under 50 a day, THAT is possibly getting covid under control. Not at the moment. And because WE let it spread, this is what we are dealing with.
10
04/03/2021 10:17:37 0 6
bbc
You ain't going to know how good the vaccines are unless they are used in populations with levels of circulating virus. The dramatic reduction in cases and hospitalizatons and deaths is due principally to lockdown restrictions. Test the hypothesis - that vaccines prevent hospitalizations and death in pouplations with circulating virus.
46
04/03/2021 10:43:52 2 1
bbc
Do you watch the news conferences? They reported that the vaccine was clearly reducing hospitalisation of the 80+ group much faster than those who have not yet had the vaccine.
11
04/03/2021 10:18:47 92 20
bbc
it's really exciting how the BBC can take obvious maths and make it look like a horror story.

The rate of decline is bound to slow down. It's simple statistics.
42
04/03/2021 10:42:15 24 20
bbc
The rate of decline is not bound to slow down. IF you just look at numbers then clearly you cannot have infections falling by say 10,000 a week indefinitely as you will simply run out - numbers will taper even if the rate of infection stays the same, but numbers are not the rate of infection. R is the rate of infection.
52
04/03/2021 10:45:34 5 14
bbc
Incorrect. A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
12
04/03/2021 10:18:50 7 13
bbc
Will those who continue to ignore lockdown make any connection between this, and their behaviour?

200 fines issued in my small corner last weekend. And they only fined those blatantly breaking rules

But then social media tells us it's no worse than flu and hospitals are empty - must be true if it's online right?!!

Odds on start month for 4th lockdown? I reckon end of May if we get a cold spring
13
04/03/2021 10:19:08 29 12
bbc
PLEASE PLEASE DO NOT UDERMINE THE GOOD WORK THE NHS HAS DONE AND THE GREAT BRITISH PUBLIC (well most) Keep safe
But Bozo & The HCock are booking summer holidays for all.
343
04/03/2021 16:57:47 0 2
bbc
Yeah 9 months of refusing treatment and postponing surgeries....And all that dancing
6
04/03/2021 10:15:22 154 18
bbc
The elephant in the room here is uptake of vaccines in ethnic minorities and quasi identifiable social groups. There will be huge resentment should it appear that vaccine refusal by a few is creating a situation where Covid levels in those populations do not allow the lifting of restrictions on the many. At the least this could manifest as non compliance when we should be listening to the experts.
14
04/03/2021 10:19:24 98 17
bbc
good post.sadly the facts say this is so.expect your post and mine will be taken down.not allowed to speak the truth anymore.
35
04/03/2021 10:35:19 41 2
bbc
I would add that from my own observations, it appears there is now significant 'restrictions fatigue' amongst many, whereby lockdown rules and social distancing guidlines are no longer being followed.
This is most likely another reason the decline in infections is tailing off and may even cause the curve to flatten out or baseline.
Everone 'doing their bit' and vaccinations are the best hope.
155
04/03/2021 12:25:57 2 3
bbc
Luckily for you BS is still allowed.
Infections fell by two-thirds over lockdown, but one in 200 people still have the virus.

Schools are reopening on Monday in England in the first easing of rules.

Will infections slowly creep up with schools opening? We will know by Easter if we have to have another fake lockdown.
16
04/03/2021 10:23:15 11 5
bbc
What I'd like to know is this, how much of the decline is due to lockdown, which reduces cases etc and how much is due to the vaccine? Yes both work, we get that.

Unfortunately I don't think anyone knows the answer to that until lockdown measures are relaxed, we are told to expect cases to go up again..
39
04/03/2021 10:40:36 3 4
bbc
Yes that is mathematically correct, but when I pointed this out in comments about an earlier study on vaccine effectiveness I was attacked by a troll who said I was talking nonsense. The graph shape for 1st and 2nd waves is broadly similar.
89
04/03/2021 11:11:03 1 2
bbc
Case rates are falling faster in older age groups all age groups have had a large amount of vaccinations but all adult age groups have actually had a significant number of people vaccinated so it’s difficult to tell but the data showing 60-70% less cases in the vaccinated suggests vaccination would be reducing cases by a very significant amount.
262
04/03/2021 14:22:25 1 3
bbc
Make no mistake, there will be winter lockdowns and summer easings for many years ahead, mark my words.
13
04/03/2021 10:19:08 29 12
bbc
PLEASE PLEASE DO NOT UDERMINE THE GOOD WORK THE NHS HAS DONE AND THE GREAT BRITISH PUBLIC (well most) Keep safe
But Bozo & The HCock are booking summer holidays for all.
6
04/03/2021 10:15:22 154 18
bbc
The elephant in the room here is uptake of vaccines in ethnic minorities and quasi identifiable social groups. There will be huge resentment should it appear that vaccine refusal by a few is creating a situation where Covid levels in those populations do not allow the lifting of restrictions on the many. At the least this could manifest as non compliance when we should be listening to the experts.
18
04/03/2021 10:24:11 9 71
bbc
The problem is significant institutional racism. As the Labour Party continually and rightly state, until we tackle that, we can’t move forward. Fortunately footballers taking the knee is making significant progress but it won’t change overnight
33
04/03/2021 10:27:22 43 10
bbc
footballers not allowed to have a poppy on their sleeve.blm is political.
135
04/03/2021 11:46:57 36 5
bbc
"The problem is significant institutional racism. As the Labour Party continually and rightly state, until we tackle that, we can’t move forward. Fortunately footballers taking the knee is making significant progress but it won’t change overnight"

---

Labour and other groups forever repeat this stuff to keep discrimination alive and expect people to chain themselves to history. You CAN move on.
162
04/03/2021 12:35:07 3 4
bbc
The Labour Party?!?!

Talk about "people who live in glass houses...."
168
04/03/2021 12:42:37 13 4
bbc
Footballers taking the knee 'making significant progress' - really?! A symbolic stance that becomes a requirement / tradition quickly become more an 'empty popularist guesture'. It can be very thought provoking but only when it's a stance and not what we do every time. As for the Labour Party - maybe sort their own first?
170
04/03/2021 12:46:21 6 1
bbc
Whilst Black footballers have doubt that its the right way forward ... AKA Zahas interview Evening standard .
176
04/03/2021 12:56:29 7 2
bbc
Taking the knee ! What, for a marxist organisation ! Forget it !
268
DC
04/03/2021 14:44:38 0 1
bbc
What a croc.
271
04/03/2021 14:47:44 0 1
bbc
Racism is an institution. I don't see how this is the case, given that inoculation came from Africa and many of those so-called ethnic minorities came here to work in the N.H.S. Could there be some other reason that is being missed?
How is taking the knee making progress? How is the structural and institutional nature of racism actually being addressed?
401
05/03/2021 09:37:30 0 1
bbc
The far left is as racist as any other group. they pick which groups to be racist against, and are even biased against "real" working people, not intellectual enough, can't quote Marx and Engels. Russia, China and other countries(so called Socialist) have had racist programmes against minorities for ages.
19
04/03/2021 10:25:23 12 13
bbc
The Kent variant is much more virulent than the Covid we had for most of last year. It doesn't take much to start the infection ball rolling again. Social Distancing face coverings and avoiding busy enclosed spaces are here to stay.
Especially as a rise in infections, albeit briefly we hope, has been observed in the South East.
20
04/03/2021 10:29:14 7 9
bbc
In a way, It'd be good if the weather stays wintery as that may keep the great british public rushing to the beaches and other tourist destinations in the throngs seen last summer (and again last weekend in some places).

Let's have patience, not patients.
62
04/03/2021 10:50:05 5 1
bbc
True but.. viruses don't like warm dry weather. It was the hot April and May, coupled with good compliance with lockdown 1, that saved us last year.
82
04/03/2021 11:02:31 2 1
bbc
Definitely not. The virus thrives in the winter and beaches have absolutely no effect on cases anyway.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-beach-holidays-safe-sage-uk-b1803367.html
21
04/03/2021 10:29:53 5 2
bbc
There are so many opinions on this and a lot of data that can be interpreted as one sees fit. Does anyone know of any middle ground unbiased no bullsh*t professional opinions in the public domain that I can look at?
The BMJ & Lancet are a wealth of unbiased literature.
121
04/03/2021 11:37:30 1 1
bbc
WHO do an update globally of all relevant covid science and news every thursday
19
04/03/2021 10:25:23 12 13
bbc
The Kent variant is much more virulent than the Covid we had for most of last year. It doesn't take much to start the infection ball rolling again. Social Distancing face coverings and avoiding busy enclosed spaces are here to stay.
Especially as a rise in infections, albeit briefly we hope, has been observed in the South East.
73
04/03/2021 10:55:53 2 1
bbc
Has it? Then why do the figures show cases by specimen date are down 26% over the last week in the South East? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=South%20East
23
04/03/2021 10:30:29 16 2
bbc
It would be better to give the decline in terms of a "half life" like radioactive decay, the time constant in which number of cases is halved. Takes the same tine to reduce from 1000 to 500 as 500 to 250, 250 to 125 etc.
56
04/03/2021 10:47:13 9 6
bbc
With an R of 0.6 it's about 10wks and 5 cycles for a group of 100 infected people to infect negligible numbers. Good but not that quick. We are still 4 times what is regarded as the safe background rare of 1500 infections per day
24
04/03/2021 10:20:49 4 4
bbc
They would say that as things are going to open soon
25
04/03/2021 10:23:45 5 6
bbc
My local area Covid is still high .......so BBC news just basing figures on London and the Boris date not data
26
04/03/2021 10:24:08 10 6
bbc
The Date is set...the Data has to be made to match it
50
04/03/2021 10:45:17 5 2
bbc
Yes that's what worries me. Can you imagine the papers the day after he has to delay a phase?
6
04/03/2021 10:15:22 154 18
bbc
The elephant in the room here is uptake of vaccines in ethnic minorities and quasi identifiable social groups. There will be huge resentment should it appear that vaccine refusal by a few is creating a situation where Covid levels in those populations do not allow the lifting of restrictions on the many. At the least this could manifest as non compliance when we should be listening to the experts.
27
04/03/2021 10:25:37 4 32
bbc
ask yourself with western countries have more covid...pubs clubs are the causes
169
04/03/2021 12:43:47 2 2
bbc
mmmm and when did we last go to a pub or a club .....
and wesern countries have more REPORTED and RECORDED covid
How can pubs and clubs be the cause when they’ve been shut for months. Idiot. Removed
6
04/03/2021 10:15:22 154 18
bbc
The elephant in the room here is uptake of vaccines in ethnic minorities and quasi identifiable social groups. There will be huge resentment should it appear that vaccine refusal by a few is creating a situation where Covid levels in those populations do not allow the lifting of restrictions on the many. At the least this could manifest as non compliance when we should be listening to the experts.
28
04/03/2021 10:26:14 18 6
bbc
Are white anti-vaxers a quasi identifiable social groups ?
Spect this'll get taken down etc etc . . .
157
04/03/2021 12:27:53 3 6
bbc
Why do you expect it to be taken down? Is it because you believe it to be a racist statement?
163
04/03/2021 12:35:26 2 1
bbc
Na anti-vaxers in general can be lumped together as a quasi identifiable group. Don't know why you would need to differentiate between white or other when its their anti-vax ideology guiding their choices.
29
04/03/2021 10:26:23 29 2
bbc
This seems to fundamentally misunderstand the maths. You would expect to see a taper effect in the decline of any problem that is itself declining.
127
04/03/2021 11:42:31 7 22
bbc
Despite 8% of the human genome having viral origins, the SAGE voodoo scientists managed to convince dumb politicians that we were being assailed by an unprecedented force of nature.
Total cobblers, just like their mathematical criteria.
300
04/03/2021 15:31:59 0 1
bbc
That’s not what they are saying. They are just saying it’s not going down as fast as would be expected. But they are 1 week late. Since last week, the rate has speeded up again
30
04/03/2021 10:31:53 33 8
bbc
It is more important to have hospitalisation and deaths down. We many well just have to live with this virus. With the vaccine, washing hands, masks and distancing we can get on with our lives. We just have to learn to adapt to open up the country.
126
04/03/2021 11:40:37 17 7
bbc
Totally agree.

I believe there will be a battle at first to get people to change attitudes from "What can I get away with?" to "What can I do to help?"

It still shocks me the amount of people I see out & about (particularly older people) grouped together like penguins at the pole and none of them wearing masks.
264
04/03/2021 14:25:17 4 1
bbc
Not enough washing hands before covid!
298
04/03/2021 15:26:09 2 5
bbc
Masks and social distancing to get on with your life? That's not life that's half life
21
04/03/2021 10:29:53 5 2
bbc
There are so many opinions on this and a lot of data that can be interpreted as one sees fit. Does anyone know of any middle ground unbiased no bullsh*t professional opinions in the public domain that I can look at?
The BMJ & Lancet are a wealth of unbiased literature.
32
04/03/2021 10:26:40 8 7
bbc
This time of year cold and flu reduces....flu has reduced since everyone started wearing masks
45
04/03/2021 10:37:03 14 3
bbc
think more likely.washing hands than masks.sad it took a pandemic for some of the populace to realise,washing hands is good/normal.
313
04/03/2021 15:42:55 1 1
bbc
Flu has “reduced” because the people with it are being added to the covid statistics
18
04/03/2021 10:24:11 9 71
bbc
The problem is significant institutional racism. As the Labour Party continually and rightly state, until we tackle that, we can’t move forward. Fortunately footballers taking the knee is making significant progress but it won’t change overnight
33
04/03/2021 10:27:22 43 10
bbc
footballers not allowed to have a poppy on their sleeve.blm is political.
177
04/03/2021 12:57:24 7 2
bbc
BLM is marxist. Its that simple...look at their website....
197
04/03/2021 13:11:44 1 3
bbc
Your statement about poppies is incorrect. Players in both the prem and the EFL have worn poppies for many years. The poppy controversy was in an international game due to FIFA, and taking he knee hasn't been done in internationals.
254
04/03/2021 14:01:37 0 1
bbc
The official line is they are saying no to racism not trying to change the law or institution, but it’s a blurred line, the poppy is a symbol that raises awareness to reminder those who died in a war so I guess your right in that sense that there is a double standard. That doesn’t mean it’s wrong to take the knee though.
34
04/03/2021 10:28:46 28 8
bbc
For all you mathematically illiterate, in the same way as you were hearing about exponential rises, when they wanted to frighten you, we now have an exponential decay. And, believe it or not, exponential decays flatten out: they approach zero asymptotically.

Of course, these curves are actually logistical, not exponential, but they can look very similar in parts.

Enjoy the maths lesson.
57
04/03/2021 10:47:24 10 8
bbc
David, your reply is most eloquent and bang on, so thank you. I will continue to dumb myself down as I try and explain the nuances of fractions and percentages to young teens, where they should have learned these in primary school.
Do you think Rushi has even heard of Fibonacci?
Have yourself a good day sir, and watch out for open manholes - Boris might be down there...
249
04/03/2021 13:53:54 0 2
bbc
Viruses do propagate exponentially, in fact all reproduction is without a constraining force. That is why we had restrictions (implemented too late), to prevent the worst case happening, it's no good waiting until it does. It is because we were slow off the mark and probably exasperated by denialist idiots that we temporarily became the global leader in deaths per head of population.
277
04/03/2021 14:57:38 0 1
bbc
The maths you describe does not cover free radicals. Ie humans.
302
04/03/2021 15:33:59 1 1
bbc
Don't you mean logarithmic rather than logistical?
14
04/03/2021 10:19:24 98 17
bbc
good post.sadly the facts say this is so.expect your post and mine will be taken down.not allowed to speak the truth anymore.
35
04/03/2021 10:35:19 41 2
bbc
I would add that from my own observations, it appears there is now significant 'restrictions fatigue' amongst many, whereby lockdown rules and social distancing guidlines are no longer being followed.
This is most likely another reason the decline in infections is tailing off and may even cause the curve to flatten out or baseline.
Everone 'doing their bit' and vaccinations are the best hope.
55
04/03/2021 10:40:10 19 1
bbc
totally agree on that.
272
04/03/2021 14:49:57 2 1
bbc
Sadly, this has been the case since the first week of the first "lockdown". The sad truth is that there are people who simply don't care, others, with influence, who make excuses for these kinds of behaviours and contradict government messaging. We should know what to do, instinctively but people won't be told. "£ockdown" is seen as a punishment, rather than as a health measure.
36
04/03/2021 10:36:05 5 6
bbc
There's always a "but" with the BBC.
I reckon Imperial are just miffed cos Oxford are getting all the credit.
37
Ray
04/03/2021 10:37:12 74 4
bbc
The virus seems pretty much here to stay just like flu is.

And much like flu despite annual jabs some people will still die from it but nowhere near the numbers we have had without the vaccine.

That is something we will all have to learn to live with because we will never abolish death from covid.
83
04/03/2021 11:03:15 18 13
bbc
Never is a bit strong.... the work they've done on the vaccine in a very quick time proves science is up there... and getting rid of the virus may one day be possible
143
04/03/2021 11:57:25 2 10
bbc
Covid is approx 10,000 times more serious than seasonal flu.

We've successfully eliminated measles, mumps, rubella, whooping cough, polio, tuberculosis etc etc from general circulation within the UK.

Suggesting that we cannot do this with covid is quite moronic.
378
04/03/2021 18:30:54 1 1
bbc
It seems that no one has died of flu this winter, so hopefully, it's a virus that has died out.
38
04/03/2021 10:37:45 13 14
bbc
Every new infection is because someone, somewhere, didn't follow the rules/advice. Everyone who flouts the rules is potentially spreading it. Too many people taking the "I'm alright, Jack" approach. Gosh, they're infuriating.
47
04/03/2021 10:44:06 7 4
bbc
Hear hear
144
04/03/2021 11:58:16 2 1
bbc
Or they are/were trapped in a care setting (home/hospital) through no fault of their own and the PPE worn by carers wasn't as effective as everyone is led to believe.
16
04/03/2021 10:23:15 11 5
bbc
What I'd like to know is this, how much of the decline is due to lockdown, which reduces cases etc and how much is due to the vaccine? Yes both work, we get that.

Unfortunately I don't think anyone knows the answer to that until lockdown measures are relaxed, we are told to expect cases to go up again..
39
04/03/2021 10:40:36 3 4
bbc
Yes that is mathematically correct, but when I pointed this out in comments about an earlier study on vaccine effectiveness I was attacked by a troll who said I was talking nonsense. The graph shape for 1st and 2nd waves is broadly similar.
40
04/03/2021 10:40:47 6 2
bbc
The official case figures also showed a decline in the rate the virus was slowing in mid to late February but in the last week it has increased again with cases down 31.6% week on week.
React need to be careful not to draw inaccurate conclusions as let's not forget they were the ones who claimed infections were still rising in early January, which we now was not true at all.
51
04/03/2021 10:45:21 5 2
bbc
Typo there, I meant which we now was not true at all. This is the study I'm referring to https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55736239
"They suggest infection levels may have gone up in early January as a result of people's activity increasing after the Christmas holiday period."
41
04/03/2021 10:41:29 23 10
bbc
"Patients WITH Covid in hospital" has now plummeted to just over 12,000

At the same time we have 12,000 empty dedicated Covid Nightingale Hospital beds.

Time to clear Covid patients to the empty Nightingales and get back to full capacity working through the massive backlog of urgent cases to prevent future deaths.

Otherwise why build the Nightingales in the first place ?
44
04/03/2021 10:42:32 32 16
bbc
The 12,000 Nightingale Beds were an expensive gesture by an incompetent government.

They were always below 5% use because the Gov knew it didn't have the staff to actually use them.
53
04/03/2021 10:46:31 8 4
bbc
Nightingale Hospitals where just a Tory stunt to appear to be doing something. What good is a hospital with no qualified staff?
63
04/03/2021 10:51:02 1 2
bbc
It's actually under 12,000 now. 11,591 across the UK and 9,594 in England.
151
04/03/2021 12:16:50 3 1
bbc
Some of the nightingales hospitals are being used for non covid cases.
324
04/03/2021 16:10:10 0 1
bbc
The one in Headley Surrey is being used to treat the large number of people who have 'Long Covid'
11
04/03/2021 10:18:47 92 20
bbc
it's really exciting how the BBC can take obvious maths and make it look like a horror story.

The rate of decline is bound to slow down. It's simple statistics.
42
04/03/2021 10:42:15 24 20
bbc
The rate of decline is not bound to slow down. IF you just look at numbers then clearly you cannot have infections falling by say 10,000 a week indefinitely as you will simply run out - numbers will taper even if the rate of infection stays the same, but numbers are not the rate of infection. R is the rate of infection.
103
OwO
04/03/2021 11:21:06 9 1
bbc
These things are always a bell curve, look at any pandemic in history.
199
04/03/2021 13:13:24 3 1
bbc
I'm literally lolling at your reply. You've entirely backed up my point. the RATE of decline is bound to slow down. R is not the rate of infection. Is the Reproduction number.
366
04/03/2021 17:51:33 1 1
bbc
And "R" is an estimate.
397
04/03/2021 23:02:14 0 1
bbc
R is an estimated figure, not factual.
over 100.000 people have NOT died of covid but WITH covid, starting to get the picture regarding the numbers?
7
Bob
04/03/2021 10:15:29 8 5
bbc
That's because deaths lag so anything reflected in this latest report with regards to cases isn't going to be seen in deaths yet, and as you point out, vaccines.
43
04/03/2021 10:42:30 2 1
bbc
There's also quite a large lag on the report - their data is only up to 23rd February so of course it can't tell us anything about the last week and a half and the fall in cases has increased again in that period.
41
04/03/2021 10:41:29 23 10
bbc
"Patients WITH Covid in hospital" has now plummeted to just over 12,000

At the same time we have 12,000 empty dedicated Covid Nightingale Hospital beds.

Time to clear Covid patients to the empty Nightingales and get back to full capacity working through the massive backlog of urgent cases to prevent future deaths.

Otherwise why build the Nightingales in the first place ?
44
04/03/2021 10:42:32 32 16
bbc
The 12,000 Nightingale Beds were an expensive gesture by an incompetent government.

They were always below 5% use because the Gov knew it didn't have the staff to actually use them.
133
04/03/2021 11:41:20 4 6
bbc
Incompetent government? We are miles ahead of the EU and just about every other country apart from Israel.
Start dealing with facts rather than parroting your political prejudices please.
198
04/03/2021 13:12:27 1 2
bbc
Actually they were an expensive example of astute forward planning that in the end was not needed as the NHS coped moe or less. If they had become full, 'staff' would have appeared ... army, navy, airforce, volunteers. teachers, refuse collectors, anyone coudl have been co-opted and given basic training.
318
04/03/2021 15:57:22 1 1
bbc
There are not enough staff and most Nightingales do not have anything like adequate toilet and bathroom facilities
32
04/03/2021 10:26:40 8 7
bbc
This time of year cold and flu reduces....flu has reduced since everyone started wearing masks
45
04/03/2021 10:37:03 14 3
bbc
think more likely.washing hands than masks.sad it took a pandemic for some of the populace to realise,washing hands is good/normal.
10
04/03/2021 10:17:37 0 6
bbc
You ain't going to know how good the vaccines are unless they are used in populations with levels of circulating virus. The dramatic reduction in cases and hospitalizatons and deaths is due principally to lockdown restrictions. Test the hypothesis - that vaccines prevent hospitalizations and death in pouplations with circulating virus.
46
04/03/2021 10:43:52 2 1
bbc
Do you watch the news conferences? They reported that the vaccine was clearly reducing hospitalisation of the 80+ group much faster than those who have not yet had the vaccine.
38
04/03/2021 10:37:45 13 14
bbc
Every new infection is because someone, somewhere, didn't follow the rules/advice. Everyone who flouts the rules is potentially spreading it. Too many people taking the "I'm alright, Jack" approach. Gosh, they're infuriating.
47
04/03/2021 10:44:06 7 4
bbc
Hear hear
48
04/03/2021 10:44:10 5 9
bbc
A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
61
04/03/2021 10:49:59 6 1
bbc
The highest average weekly rate for vaccination in the UK was 441,000 first doses a day, it's not 351,000 so the decline has not been anywhere near as big as you're saying there and the number of second doses per day has increased in that time.
That does not mean the infection rate would creep up anyway, it means there's slightly less downward pressure on the R rate but it would still fall.
76
04/03/2021 10:58:38 2 3
bbc
One day we peaked at 600,000 so it is slowing.

But the vast majority of the vulnerable have now had at least 1 jab which claims over 90% protection so not quite so urgent now I guess.
9
04/03/2021 10:17:14 6 5
bbc
We’ve got vaccines now so we should stop worrying about cases and start worrying about all the other health problems wrongly ignored this last year now we’re getting Covid under control.
49
04/03/2021 10:44:48 4 4
bbc
If we can get down to under 500 cases a day, and dropping, with deaths under 50 a day, THAT is possibly getting covid under control. Not at the moment. And because WE let it spread, this is what we are dealing with.
85
04/03/2021 11:05:52 0 3
bbc
More like 1500 so long as spread and not clustered I read last week. We are at 6k a day. 4th lockdown start month predictions?
96
04/03/2021 11:15:41 1 1
bbc
500 cases a day when you’re testing 700,000 people a day is likely to be impossible. Almost certainly below the number of false positives.
50 deaths a day though we are actually likely to reach next month.
Already down to 250 and halving faster than every 2 weeks.
26
04/03/2021 10:24:08 10 6
bbc
The Date is set...the Data has to be made to match it
50
04/03/2021 10:45:17 5 2
bbc
Yes that's what worries me. Can you imagine the papers the day after he has to delay a phase?
40
04/03/2021 10:40:47 6 2
bbc
The official case figures also showed a decline in the rate the virus was slowing in mid to late February but in the last week it has increased again with cases down 31.6% week on week.
React need to be careful not to draw inaccurate conclusions as let's not forget they were the ones who claimed infections were still rising in early January, which we now was not true at all.
51
04/03/2021 10:45:21 5 2
bbc
Typo there, I meant which we now was not true at all. This is the study I'm referring to https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55736239
"They suggest infection levels may have gone up in early January as a result of people's activity increasing after the Christmas holiday period."
65
04/03/2021 10:52:11 3 2
bbc
Somehow went wrong again - should be "which we now know was not true at all."
11
04/03/2021 10:18:47 92 20
bbc
it's really exciting how the BBC can take obvious maths and make it look like a horror story.

The rate of decline is bound to slow down. It's simple statistics.
52
04/03/2021 10:45:34 5 14
bbc
Incorrect. A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
69
04/03/2021 10:53:44 5 4
bbc
You need to check your figures there. It's now slowed from 500,000 to 250,000, it's actually gone from 440,000 to 351,000.
201
04/03/2021 13:14:41 2 2
bbc
The RATE of decline is bound to slow down. Statistically there will always be a point where the RATE of decline slows down. Think about applying the brakes in your car. Slows down really quickly at first then rate of slowing down, slows down.
295
04/03/2021 15:25:36 1 2
bbc
Except that the pandemic has been following a predictable exponential decline since 14 Jan and while there is evidence that vaccination stops people getting ill , last week there was evidence that numbers were slowing. This week however, numbers are back to decreasing at R=0.71. REACt will report this next week.
41
04/03/2021 10:41:29 23 10
bbc
"Patients WITH Covid in hospital" has now plummeted to just over 12,000

At the same time we have 12,000 empty dedicated Covid Nightingale Hospital beds.

Time to clear Covid patients to the empty Nightingales and get back to full capacity working through the massive backlog of urgent cases to prevent future deaths.

Otherwise why build the Nightingales in the first place ?
53
04/03/2021 10:46:31 8 4
bbc
Nightingale Hospitals where just a Tory stunt to appear to be doing something. What good is a hospital with no qualified staff?
200
04/03/2021 13:13:26 1 1
bbc
Better that than die alone on your care home with all the other residents also dead whilst staff are dead or left - see Europe.
4
04/03/2021 10:13:00 63 7
bbc
A slowing in the decline of infections should be expected because of exponential decay behaviour.

However, reported deaths and admissions appear to have recently started to defy this and exhibit a more linear decline, which would make sense as the vaccine programme effects increase.

Regardless of where infections go from here, the vaccines are making infection numbers less relevant.
54
04/03/2021 10:46:54 0 13
bbc
Wrong. A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
72
04/03/2021 10:54:22 9 1
bbc
Why are you posting incorrect data over and over again?
35
04/03/2021 10:35:19 41 2
bbc
I would add that from my own observations, it appears there is now significant 'restrictions fatigue' amongst many, whereby lockdown rules and social distancing guidlines are no longer being followed.
This is most likely another reason the decline in infections is tailing off and may even cause the curve to flatten out or baseline.
Everone 'doing their bit' and vaccinations are the best hope.
55
04/03/2021 10:40:10 19 1
bbc
totally agree on that.
23
04/03/2021 10:30:29 16 2
bbc
It would be better to give the decline in terms of a "half life" like radioactive decay, the time constant in which number of cases is halved. Takes the same tine to reduce from 1000 to 500 as 500 to 250, 250 to 125 etc.
56
04/03/2021 10:47:13 9 6
bbc
With an R of 0.6 it's about 10wks and 5 cycles for a group of 100 infected people to infect negligible numbers. Good but not that quick. We are still 4 times what is regarded as the safe background rare of 1500 infections per day
77
04/03/2021 11:00:24 2 3
bbc
Regarded as the safe background rate by who? You should bear in mind that there are currently about 350,000 lateral flow tests a day which have a false positive rate of around 0.3% outside of a lab and there will also be a few hundred PCR false positives a day so actually the number of false positives per day could easily be above 1,500.
34
04/03/2021 10:28:46 28 8
bbc
For all you mathematically illiterate, in the same way as you were hearing about exponential rises, when they wanted to frighten you, we now have an exponential decay. And, believe it or not, exponential decays flatten out: they approach zero asymptotically.

Of course, these curves are actually logistical, not exponential, but they can look very similar in parts.

Enjoy the maths lesson.
57
04/03/2021 10:47:24 10 8
bbc
David, your reply is most eloquent and bang on, so thank you. I will continue to dumb myself down as I try and explain the nuances of fractions and percentages to young teens, where they should have learned these in primary school.
Do you think Rushi has even heard of Fibonacci?
Have yourself a good day sir, and watch out for open manholes - Boris might be down there...
130
04/03/2021 11:39:17 6 2
bbc
Good post until I got to the infantile political attacks.
58
04/03/2021 10:48:05 5 7
bbc
Is nobody sick to death of talking about covid 19
64
04/03/2021 10:52:04 9 2
bbc
If we don’t continue to share the information then people don’t know what is happening and how they should keep themselves safe. This is going to be a long process and everyone needs to know the facts.
74
04/03/2021 10:56:19 0 5
bbc
They should do a

"Death for ANY reason within 28 days of reading BBC HYS"

would be about as meaningful as the

"Death for ANY reason within 28 days of a positive covid test"

they currently use.
59
04/03/2021 10:49:13 6 10
bbc
13thman

Every new infection is because someone, somewhere, didn't follow the rules/advice. Everyone who flouts the rules is potentially spreading it. Too many people taking the "I'm alright, Jack" approach. Gosh, they're infuriating.
--
ONS Death Breakdown
60% Disabled
33% Care Home
11% Hospital Acquired

How much interaction does Joe Public have in those mainly Gov controlled areas ?
66
04/03/2021 10:52:12 6 4
bbc
Govt employees ARE members of the public, derrrr.
67
04/03/2021 10:52:54 3 1
bbc
104%?
68
04/03/2021 10:53:19 6 1
bbc
I must have been asleep the day the government acquired the care homes. 90% private sector
71
Ray
04/03/2021 10:54:18 4 3
bbc
104% of deaths in just 3 areas ?
Sounds like the Office for National Guesswork
8
04/03/2021 10:12:26 5 4
bbc
lets hope this does not lead to a 3rd wave.
60
04/03/2021 10:49:21 2 8
bbc
Bed wetter
48
04/03/2021 10:44:10 5 9
bbc
A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
61
04/03/2021 10:49:59 6 1
bbc
The highest average weekly rate for vaccination in the UK was 441,000 first doses a day, it's not 351,000 so the decline has not been anywhere near as big as you're saying there and the number of second doses per day has increased in that time.
That does not mean the infection rate would creep up anyway, it means there's slightly less downward pressure on the R rate but it would still fall.
20
04/03/2021 10:29:14 7 9
bbc
In a way, It'd be good if the weather stays wintery as that may keep the great british public rushing to the beaches and other tourist destinations in the throngs seen last summer (and again last weekend in some places).

Let's have patience, not patients.
62
04/03/2021 10:50:05 5 1
bbc
True but.. viruses don't like warm dry weather. It was the hot April and May, coupled with good compliance with lockdown 1, that saved us last year.
41
04/03/2021 10:41:29 23 10
bbc
"Patients WITH Covid in hospital" has now plummeted to just over 12,000

At the same time we have 12,000 empty dedicated Covid Nightingale Hospital beds.

Time to clear Covid patients to the empty Nightingales and get back to full capacity working through the massive backlog of urgent cases to prevent future deaths.

Otherwise why build the Nightingales in the first place ?
63
04/03/2021 10:51:02 1 2
bbc
It's actually under 12,000 now. 11,591 across the UK and 9,594 in England.
58
04/03/2021 10:48:05 5 7
bbc
Is nobody sick to death of talking about covid 19
64
04/03/2021 10:52:04 9 2
bbc
If we don’t continue to share the information then people don’t know what is happening and how they should keep themselves safe. This is going to be a long process and everyone needs to know the facts.
51
04/03/2021 10:45:21 5 2
bbc
Typo there, I meant which we now was not true at all. This is the study I'm referring to https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55736239
"They suggest infection levels may have gone up in early January as a result of people's activity increasing after the Christmas holiday period."
65
04/03/2021 10:52:11 3 2
bbc
Somehow went wrong again - should be "which we now know was not true at all."
59
04/03/2021 10:49:13 6 10
bbc
13thman

Every new infection is because someone, somewhere, didn't follow the rules/advice. Everyone who flouts the rules is potentially spreading it. Too many people taking the "I'm alright, Jack" approach. Gosh, they're infuriating.
--
ONS Death Breakdown
60% Disabled
33% Care Home
11% Hospital Acquired

How much interaction does Joe Public have in those mainly Gov controlled areas ?
66
04/03/2021 10:52:12 6 4
bbc
Govt employees ARE members of the public, derrrr.
78
04/03/2021 11:00:30 1 4
bbc
The phrase was Joe Public (i.e. average person in the street)

Most people do not work in the 3 areas listed, derrr
59
04/03/2021 10:49:13 6 10
bbc
13thman

Every new infection is because someone, somewhere, didn't follow the rules/advice. Everyone who flouts the rules is potentially spreading it. Too many people taking the "I'm alright, Jack" approach. Gosh, they're infuriating.
--
ONS Death Breakdown
60% Disabled
33% Care Home
11% Hospital Acquired

How much interaction does Joe Public have in those mainly Gov controlled areas ?
67
04/03/2021 10:52:54 3 1
bbc
104%?
59
04/03/2021 10:49:13 6 10
bbc
13thman

Every new infection is because someone, somewhere, didn't follow the rules/advice. Everyone who flouts the rules is potentially spreading it. Too many people taking the "I'm alright, Jack" approach. Gosh, they're infuriating.
--
ONS Death Breakdown
60% Disabled
33% Care Home
11% Hospital Acquired

How much interaction does Joe Public have in those mainly Gov controlled areas ?
68
04/03/2021 10:53:19 6 1
bbc
I must have been asleep the day the government acquired the care homes. 90% private sector
52
04/03/2021 10:45:34 5 14
bbc
Incorrect. A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
69
04/03/2021 10:53:44 5 4
bbc
You need to check your figures there. It's now slowed from 500,000 to 250,000, it's actually gone from 440,000 to 351,000.
172
04/03/2021 12:48:18 3 2
bbc
Yesterday was 224,000, so is declining
70
04/03/2021 10:53:47 9 6
bbc
10:49

ONS Death Breakdown
60% Disabled
33% Care Home
11% Hospital Acquired

How much interaction does Joe Public have in those mainly Gov controlled areas ?
--
Take your point that vast majority of deaths were in areas beyond the reach of Joe Public (and where Gov has some responsibility e.g. PPE)

Its why the 3 lockdowns failed and vaccination is the only answer now.
84
04/03/2021 11:04:16 19 4
bbc
The lockdowns did not fail. They were never intended to wipe out the virus, but merely to "flatten the curve", ie. to stop the NHS being overwhelmed & to buy time while vaccines were developed. They succeeded admirably in doing that.

Each country's epidemic started with just a handful of cases. So if any country ended a lockdown without completely eliminating infections, it was bound to restart.
125
04/03/2021 11:39:37 2 3
bbc
you can still spread covid if you have been vaccinated
59
04/03/2021 10:49:13 6 10
bbc
13thman

Every new infection is because someone, somewhere, didn't follow the rules/advice. Everyone who flouts the rules is potentially spreading it. Too many people taking the "I'm alright, Jack" approach. Gosh, they're infuriating.
--
ONS Death Breakdown
60% Disabled
33% Care Home
11% Hospital Acquired

How much interaction does Joe Public have in those mainly Gov controlled areas ?
71
Ray
04/03/2021 10:54:18 4 3
bbc
104% of deaths in just 3 areas ?
Sounds like the Office for National Guesswork
54
04/03/2021 10:46:54 0 13
bbc
Wrong. A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
72
04/03/2021 10:54:22 9 1
bbc
Why are you posting incorrect data over and over again?
Especially as a rise in infections, albeit briefly we hope, has been observed in the South East.
73
04/03/2021 10:55:53 2 1
bbc
Has it? Then why do the figures show cases by specimen date are down 26% over the last week in the South East? https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=region&areaName=South%20East
58
04/03/2021 10:48:05 5 7
bbc
Is nobody sick to death of talking about covid 19
74
04/03/2021 10:56:19 0 5
bbc
They should do a

"Death for ANY reason within 28 days of reading BBC HYS"

would be about as meaningful as the

"Death for ANY reason within 28 days of a positive covid test"

they currently use.
86
04/03/2021 11:07:05 5 1
bbc
Not this again. It’s not true and you know it. Doctors do not put false cause of death on death certificates.
75
04/03/2021 10:57:00 17 15
bbc
We need to stop worrying about new cases. Covid is here to stay. The more you search for it the more you will find it.
79
04/03/2021 11:01:53 10 9
bbc
Clearly people want to stay in a lockdown with the down votes
48
04/03/2021 10:44:10 5 9
bbc
A possible reason for the slowing in the rate of COVID infections decline, is that the vaccination rate has also declined over the past 4 weeks from approx. 500,000 daily jabs to under 250,000 daily jabs. Less people getting the daily jab means the rate of infection is creeping up!
76
04/03/2021 10:58:38 2 3
bbc
One day we peaked at 600,000 so it is slowing.

But the vast majority of the vulnerable have now had at least 1 jab which claims over 90% protection so not quite so urgent now I guess.
102
04/03/2021 11:19:03 0 2
bbc
It’s not slowed anywhere near as much as they’ve claimed though and supply is supposed to be increasing this month (Hancock has confirmed this so they must be very sure) so it’s likely to be pick up again.
56
04/03/2021 10:47:13 9 6
bbc
With an R of 0.6 it's about 10wks and 5 cycles for a group of 100 infected people to infect negligible numbers. Good but not that quick. We are still 4 times what is regarded as the safe background rare of 1500 infections per day
77
04/03/2021 11:00:24 2 3
bbc
Regarded as the safe background rate by who? You should bear in mind that there are currently about 350,000 lateral flow tests a day which have a false positive rate of around 0.3% outside of a lab and there will also be a few hundred PCR false positives a day so actually the number of false positives per day could easily be above 1,500.
66
04/03/2021 10:52:12 6 4
bbc
Govt employees ARE members of the public, derrrr.
78
04/03/2021 11:00:30 1 4
bbc
The phrase was Joe Public (i.e. average person in the street)

Most people do not work in the 3 areas listed, derrr
75
04/03/2021 10:57:00 17 15
bbc
We need to stop worrying about new cases. Covid is here to stay. The more you search for it the more you will find it.
79
04/03/2021 11:01:53 10 9
bbc
Clearly people want to stay in a lockdown with the down votes
88
04/03/2021 11:08:26 6 10
bbc
You will always get the scared and wokes that won't leave their bolt holes. If they want to stay in doors for the summer let them, more room for people like us at the beach and beauty spots this summer!
95
04/03/2021 11:15:34 7 2
bbc
I don't know how you worked that out. Just because people downvoted your comment doesn't mean they want to stay in lockdown. I doubt whether anybody wants to stay in lockdown, but that doesn't stop many people from worrying about it.

What we need to do is not to stop worrying, but to all get vaccinated. That's the only way out of lockdowns.
60
04/03/2021 10:49:21 2 8
bbc
Bed wetter
Removed
81
RC
04/03/2021 11:02:30 51 4
bbc
The important figure is the number of people in hospital. If the vaccine is working in the vulnerable sector of society then this will fall and continue to fall. If this reduces to a low figure it is reasonable to get on and start removing restrictions and giving people back some bit of freedom.
112
04/03/2021 11:25:02 31 71
bbc
Just a 3 week lockdown to prevent the NHS from being overrun they said a year ago.
The first of many lies to justify the authoritarian madness they unnecessarily chose to pursue.
20
04/03/2021 10:29:14 7 9
bbc
In a way, It'd be good if the weather stays wintery as that may keep the great british public rushing to the beaches and other tourist destinations in the throngs seen last summer (and again last weekend in some places).

Let's have patience, not patients.
82
04/03/2021 11:02:31 2 1
bbc
Definitely not. The virus thrives in the winter and beaches have absolutely no effect on cases anyway.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-beach-holidays-safe-sage-uk-b1803367.html
37
Ray
04/03/2021 10:37:12 74 4
bbc
The virus seems pretty much here to stay just like flu is.

And much like flu despite annual jabs some people will still die from it but nowhere near the numbers we have had without the vaccine.

That is something we will all have to learn to live with because we will never abolish death from covid.
83
04/03/2021 11:03:15 18 13
bbc
Never is a bit strong.... the work they've done on the vaccine in a very quick time proves science is up there... and getting rid of the virus may one day be possible
94
04/03/2021 11:15:18 3 3
bbc
Shame they haven't done the same with all the prevoius virus's. Aids, measles, flu, etc all still kill hundreds of thosands every year
205
04/03/2021 13:16:31 3 1
bbc
Do you know how many viruses mankind has eradicated?

Two.

So 'never' is probably being realistic than an hyperbole...
275
04/03/2021 14:53:55 1 1
bbc
The only way to get rid of the virus is to prevent it from replicating, which means people not passing it on, once they have it. The virus has one job, to replicate and it needs people in order to do that. This virus, like others, is changing to enable that to continue. My guess is that, over time, it will become less dangerous, like the other coronaviruses that cause the common cold.
367
04/03/2021 17:52:59 0 1
bbc
Never is probably quite accurate, after all the plague is still with us, but we know how to cope with it.
70
04/03/2021 10:53:47 9 6
bbc
10:49

ONS Death Breakdown
60% Disabled
33% Care Home
11% Hospital Acquired

How much interaction does Joe Public have in those mainly Gov controlled areas ?
--
Take your point that vast majority of deaths were in areas beyond the reach of Joe Public (and where Gov has some responsibility e.g. PPE)

Its why the 3 lockdowns failed and vaccination is the only answer now.
84
04/03/2021 11:04:16 19 4
bbc
The lockdowns did not fail. They were never intended to wipe out the virus, but merely to "flatten the curve", ie. to stop the NHS being overwhelmed & to buy time while vaccines were developed. They succeeded admirably in doing that.

Each country's epidemic started with just a handful of cases. So if any country ended a lockdown without completely eliminating infections, it was bound to restart.
93
04/03/2021 11:13:35 0 4
bbc
And can you show me where any of the 3 Lockdowns actually flattened the curve ?

Our graph looks identical to "No Lockdown" Sweden until our mass vaccine roll out

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2020-03-16..latest&country=SWE~GBR®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7

Spot the difference ?
113
04/03/2021 11:21:13 1 2
bbc
But that is to ignore the fact that we are now in a different situation (4th March 2021); the vast majority of vulnerable people (>70, those with co-mobidities and high BMI) have been vaccinated. Asymptomatic infection was never the problem.
49
04/03/2021 10:44:48 4 4
bbc
If we can get down to under 500 cases a day, and dropping, with deaths under 50 a day, THAT is possibly getting covid under control. Not at the moment. And because WE let it spread, this is what we are dealing with.
85
04/03/2021 11:05:52 0 3
bbc
More like 1500 so long as spread and not clustered I read last week. We are at 6k a day. 4th lockdown start month predictions?
98
04/03/2021 11:16:31 2 2
bbc
Never. It’s a bit of a joke that we’re still in lockdown now really. The data shows we do not need to be.
74
04/03/2021 10:56:19 0 5
bbc
They should do a

"Death for ANY reason within 28 days of reading BBC HYS"

would be about as meaningful as the

"Death for ANY reason within 28 days of a positive covid test"

they currently use.
86
04/03/2021 11:07:05 5 1
bbc
Not this again. It’s not true and you know it. Doctors do not put false cause of death on death certificates.
87
04/03/2021 11:07:08 18 12
bbc
Here we go, goal post about to be moved again. These post have been moved so many times by science I'm surprised there is room left on the field. There will always be new cases, and I'm surprised the scientist haven't got that yet. You cannot have minorities holding back the majority just because some religious leader says the vaccine is not for you. Stop with all these studies and open up!
79
04/03/2021 11:01:53 10 9
bbc
Clearly people want to stay in a lockdown with the down votes
88
04/03/2021 11:08:26 6 10
bbc
You will always get the scared and wokes that won't leave their bolt holes. If they want to stay in doors for the summer let them, more room for people like us at the beach and beauty spots this summer!
99
04/03/2021 11:17:45 2 6
bbc
To right I’m going to enjoy my summer holiday in Devon in July with my family
16
04/03/2021 10:23:15 11 5
bbc
What I'd like to know is this, how much of the decline is due to lockdown, which reduces cases etc and how much is due to the vaccine? Yes both work, we get that.

Unfortunately I don't think anyone knows the answer to that until lockdown measures are relaxed, we are told to expect cases to go up again..
89
04/03/2021 11:11:03 1 2
bbc
Case rates are falling faster in older age groups all age groups have had a large amount of vaccinations but all adult age groups have actually had a significant number of people vaccinated so it’s difficult to tell but the data showing 60-70% less cases in the vaccinated suggests vaccination would be reducing cases by a very significant amount.
256
04/03/2021 14:04:08 0 2
bbc
You say "all adult age groups have actually had a significant number of people vaccinated", actually the invitation for over 60s has only just gone out, only those under 60 deemed at risk can have already received the vaccine. There was no vaccine during the 1st wave but cases fell in all age groups, and most of those recorded cases were in the older age groups to start with.
77
04/03/2021 11:00:24 2 3
bbc
Regarded as the safe background rate by who? You should bear in mind that there are currently about 350,000 lateral flow tests a day which have a false positive rate of around 0.3% outside of a lab and there will also be a few hundred PCR false positives a day so actually the number of false positives per day could easily be above 1,500.
8
04/03/2021 10:12:26 5 4
bbc
lets hope this does not lead to a 3rd wave.
91
04/03/2021 11:13:23 2 1
bbc
It hasn’t. Cases have fallen faster again since then.
122
04/03/2021 11:24:00 2 2
bbc
aware of that.lets see if we get a cold spring.what happens with the figures early may time.
60
04/03/2021 10:49:21 2 8
bbc
Bed wetter
Removed
84
04/03/2021 11:04:16 19 4
bbc
The lockdowns did not fail. They were never intended to wipe out the virus, but merely to "flatten the curve", ie. to stop the NHS being overwhelmed & to buy time while vaccines were developed. They succeeded admirably in doing that.

Each country's epidemic started with just a handful of cases. So if any country ended a lockdown without completely eliminating infections, it was bound to restart.
93
04/03/2021 11:13:35 0 4
bbc
And can you show me where any of the 3 Lockdowns actually flattened the curve ?

Our graph looks identical to "No Lockdown" Sweden until our mass vaccine roll out

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?time=2020-03-16..latest&country=SWE~GBR®ion=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7

Spot the difference ?
83
04/03/2021 11:03:15 18 13
bbc
Never is a bit strong.... the work they've done on the vaccine in a very quick time proves science is up there... and getting rid of the virus may one day be possible
94
04/03/2021 11:15:18 3 3
bbc
Shame they haven't done the same with all the prevoius virus's. Aids, measles, flu, etc all still kill hundreds of thosands every year
106
OwO
04/03/2021 11:23:03 2 2
bbc
AIDS research has had some massive breakthroughs. The flu has been around long enough to mutate into far more forms than covid yet each year we get new jabs which have been developed.

It's almost like things are a bit more complicated.....
110
Sam
04/03/2021 11:24:28 1 1
bbc
It because there no imperative, the effort/costs versus benefit measure means it's just not worth investing in getting rid of it. However, this might be one of the situations that as a world we come to getter to eradicated it, not immediately but over a few years.
79
04/03/2021 11:01:53 10 9
bbc
Clearly people want to stay in a lockdown with the down votes
95
04/03/2021 11:15:34 7 2
bbc
I don't know how you worked that out. Just because people downvoted your comment doesn't mean they want to stay in lockdown. I doubt whether anybody wants to stay in lockdown, but that doesn't stop many people from worrying about it.

What we need to do is not to stop worrying, but to all get vaccinated. That's the only way out of lockdowns.
108
04/03/2021 11:23:25 3 9
bbc
Yes it does. There are too many bed wetter in this country that are liking life behind there sofa
49
04/03/2021 10:44:48 4 4
bbc
If we can get down to under 500 cases a day, and dropping, with deaths under 50 a day, THAT is possibly getting covid under control. Not at the moment. And because WE let it spread, this is what we are dealing with.
96
04/03/2021 11:15:41 1 1
bbc
500 cases a day when you’re testing 700,000 people a day is likely to be impossible. Almost certainly below the number of false positives.
50 deaths a day though we are actually likely to reach next month.
Already down to 250 and halving faster than every 2 weeks.
97
04/03/2021 11:16:17 1 7
bbc
Anyone fell like another lockdown coming
101
04/03/2021 11:19:01 6 7
bbc
It won’t be happening. Why are you wanting another lockdown for? Are you scared of this virus or do you like hiding behind your sofa?
85
04/03/2021 11:05:52 0 3
bbc
More like 1500 so long as spread and not clustered I read last week. We are at 6k a day. 4th lockdown start month predictions?
98
04/03/2021 11:16:31 2 2
bbc
Never. It’s a bit of a joke that we’re still in lockdown now really. The data shows we do not need to be.
391
04/03/2021 20:22:48 0 1
bbc
The data shows we do not need to be in lockdown, if you want to tolerate thousands more deaths before the effect of the vaccine actually kicks in.
88
04/03/2021 11:08:26 6 10
bbc
You will always get the scared and wokes that won't leave their bolt holes. If they want to stay in doors for the summer let them, more room for people like us at the beach and beauty spots this summer!
99
04/03/2021 11:17:45 2 6
bbc
To right I’m going to enjoy my summer holiday in Devon in July with my family
100
Sam
04/03/2021 11:17:45 6 2
bbc
Seems logical. Lockdown impact effect petering out, vaccines rolled out to most vulnerable who were likely cautious, although health care vaccinations would have had a big early impact. Expect steady if slower decline in infections now, maybe even with a bit of an increase when things open up, until vaccines reach the younger age groups.