Covid-19: Early signs of lockdown restrictions working
15/01/2021
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The R number in the UK is officially estimated at 1.2-1.3 as a further 1,280 deaths are reported.
1
alvin21
15/01/2021 17:10:22
23
18
bbc
Here we go same old guess work
Or is the virus just following the gompertz curve as is the usual case.
For the only Control in this mad Lockdown experiment we have to look at what's happening in Sweden.
And luckily for them (and us, if we learn the lesson) all indicators have already started to fall sharply.
If we're smart we'll move to lighter measures asap and PTV.
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
For the only Control in this mad Lockdown experiment we have to look at what's happening in Sweden.
And luckily for them (and us, if we learn the lesson) all indicators have already started to fall sharply.
If we're smart we'll move to lighter measures asap and PTV.
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
This headline seems to be a complete variance with other information coming out of government today - no wonder people become confused!
But your other news story says cases rising?
Hopefully this is the start of falling infections and death rates.
If R>1 and case numbers are rising, the restrictions are not working.
An R number based on deaths will lag an R number based on infections as it takes time to show symptoms and die, furthermore some areas locked down after others and are therefore catching up. It isnt as simple as one number for the entire country and for every outcome.
No, the restrictions mean R is lower than it would have been without restrictions. 'working' doesn't mean 'cases falling'.
Can’t say it is unprecedented anymore
New cases aren't falling. They just aren't rising as quickly. The gov't needs to tell employers they must make employees who can work from home. Mine has struggled to agree with it even though I can't get in with the snow. They probably don't want to see that I get more done from home.
They are falling in some places, those places that have had lockdown for longer so the implication is they will start falling elsewhere soon too.
They are falling sharply in hard-hit S. Wales. E.g. Swansea now 75% lower than the peak on 23 December (before lockdown was imposed).
Sadly there's little change in rush hour traffic where I live, obvious there are more people going to work compared to 1st lockdown - yet the situation is worse.
If your employer just wants bums on seats because they have no confidence or trust in the staff ‘they’ interviewed for their jobs, they are a ***t company to work for. Shame on them, you sound to good for them.
Most people do not get more done at home.Working from home has been a disaster for the economy
Maths not your strong point?
The last 7 days saw 57,000 fewer new cases recorded than the previous 7 days. That means that new cases are falling. Very simple
The last 7 days saw 358,500 new cases. The previous 7 days had 415,408 new cases. That is a fall
Your statement that new cases 'just aren't rising as quickly' is untrue. Actual numbers and reality indicate that new cases are indeed falling
The last 7 days saw 57,000 fewer new cases recorded than the previous 7 days. That means that new cases are falling. Very simple
The last 7 days saw 358,500 new cases. The previous 7 days had 415,408 new cases. That is a fall
Your statement that new cases 'just aren't rising as quickly' is untrue. Actual numbers and reality indicate that new cases are indeed falling
It means that the second derivative with respect to time of the number of new cases per day of infected people is negative but the first derivative is still positive.
The number of overall UK daily new cases is falling. The past 7 days are significantly lower than the previous 7 days.
This is due to lockdown.
This third wave is now declining.
This is due to lockdown.
This third wave is now declining.
The government HAS told employers to tell employees to work from home "if they can". It's the "if they can" bit that's the problem... if the employer can't be bothered or afford to set up the necessary steps to make their office safe, or just doesn't trust its employees, then "if you can" soon turns into "you can't"
If middle managers can't see you, they can't control you and they get really sh*tt*d. It freaks them out.
We need to consider a broader picture, instead of sensationalising daily figures like a yo-yo.
People's hope and mental health should be respected.
People's hope and mental health should be respected.
This is good news, its happening slowly but still things are moving in the right direction.
The capacity for this virus to kill YOU and your family MUST NOT be underestimated (do a course in virology and epidemiology if you don't believe me, and learn about mutations ).
We've been INCREDIBLY lucky so far that the measures we've had, while fairly ineffective, have at least kept things a LOT better than they otherwise would have been.
We've been INCREDIBLY lucky so far that the measures we've had, while fairly ineffective, have at least kept things a LOT better than they otherwise would have been.
We need measurements - they tell us how big the problem is.
Qualitative information is important too but isn’t so easily measured.
Qualitative information is important too but isn’t so easily measured.
So the Covid Symptom study thinks R is below 1, we were told on here yesterday infections were “levelling off”, but now they say R is above 1. So what’s going on?
One is based on infections, the other on deaths where people die after they are infected (ish two weeks).
Different measures give different values for R. The covid symptom app is not a very good source, as it has lots of bias in the data being collected. The OIS stats and PCR test results give better data with more reliable results.
So now they decide to close the borders. Why, are we trying to ensure we lock the virus in?
Usual too slow and too late.
Usual too slow and too late.
Agreed it's too slow and too late - but we need to keep out new strains too
I read that all other countries have already locked their boarders down to nearly all UK flights.
The borders are not closed.
Anyone who tests negative can come in.
Anyone who tests negative can come in.
But moving covid patients to Newcastle talk about spreading it, the Con Govt worse culprits. Perhaps Cummings will meet and greet them!
Proof that lockdowns work and following the science is the best thing to do. We need to keep this up until we get the r to under 1 and THEN think about easing restrictions. We also need the public to accept that it has worked and continue to be sensible and we may actually keep it at a low level and avoid a further lockdown.
Can't see it happening though. Too many me me me's out there :-(
Can't see it happening though. Too many me me me's out there :-(
No wrong, Boris has just said cases are rising, so lockdowns make no difference.
Not worked though has it...Boris has made sure it wouldn’t
No, lockdowns don't work because the effect is only temporary. They would 'work' if the net result was that infections were permanently lowered - this will never happen. Science does not provide the answers but merely gives us something to do in a fairly hopeless situation (as far as beating the virus goes). If you think hard lockdowns will prevent future ones, you are seriously deluded.
But your other news story says cases rising?
Lockdown working? What lockdown?
Below is a quote from above, how is an R of 1.3 higher than 1.4?
"The UK's epidemic is still officially estimated to be growing, according to the latest R number, but data suggests new cases are beginning to fall.
The R number - which takes into account cases, hospitalisations and deaths - is estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.3, compared with 1 and 1.4 last week"
"The UK's epidemic is still officially estimated to be growing, according to the latest R number, but data suggests new cases are beginning to fall.
The R number - which takes into account cases, hospitalisations and deaths - is estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.3, compared with 1 and 1.4 last week"
R shows the rate of infection, not the number of infections. The more people are infected, the more impact a 1+ R 'll have.
If R=10, but only 10 people are infected; you can deal with it.
If R=1.1, but 10 million people are infected; proverbial excrement will hit the fan.
Scale, exponentials, and the lot. The longer we wait and more people are infected, the more serious the small numbers become
If R=10, but only 10 people are infected; you can deal with it.
If R=1.1, but 10 million people are infected; proverbial excrement will hit the fan.
Scale, exponentials, and the lot. The longer we wait and more people are infected, the more serious the small numbers become
Overall they are, in some places they are falling - do you not realise that the overall number is a sum of the underlying numbers and an overall positive number does not mean that all the underlying numbers have to be positive? I guess not, I mean adding numbers is pretty hard right?
The total number of cases is rising. The rate of increase is slowing. The 7-day moving average is on a downward trend. Clear?
Unfortunately articles like this do more harm than good. There are people in this country who will take every precaution possible, but there are also people who will stretch the rules the first chance they get.
It's great to hear that this lockdown is having an effect, but some people upon hearing this news will take it as an excuse to not bother anymore.
Stay seperate, stay considerate.
It's great to hear that this lockdown is having an effect, but some people upon hearing this news will take it as an excuse to not bother anymore.
Stay seperate, stay considerate.
The only effect it is having is destroying the economy, though after 10 months it is probably already dead, we just won't know it until April when the body starts to stink. Spain is now discovering what lock-down does to young lives and the poverty it brings, but hey, Covid Cultists won't worry about those lock-down kills.
They may be working - for now. The problem is that this will never go away and, unless we continue on/off lockdowns indefinitely, cases will rise when lockdown is lifted. What the country has to realise is that we need to live with the virus rather than think we can defeat it. In about 12 months' time, we will be vaccinating against the dominant Covid strain as per flu, it'll just be normal.
Cases are rising even in lockdown. So how does lockdown work? Same problem in countries such as Germany who are supposed to be doing better than UK.
The problem is basing policy on cases by a dodgy test not designed for purpose, the only measure that measures is mortality.
I wonder how many people actually need to die before people realise the seriousness of this disease.
Over 2million and still people say PLEASE let us huddle in small clubs and restaurants to kill more.
Incredible.
Over 2million and still people say PLEASE let us huddle in small clubs and restaurants to kill more.
Incredible.
Yes, but as things stand we've vaccinated one person in twenty, roughly. That's not enough to stop it spreading and killing people. About 0.4% of everyone infected dies, which means about a quarter of a million deaths without any other measures. So, lockdown now, managed later.
Yes, as soon as the most vulnerable are vaccinated, we need to take it on the chin. Not a popular view, but I feel the only sensible course of action. We must not get into to the habit of enjoying both submitting to authoritarianism and imposing it upon others.
Common knowledge cases levelled off late in December and started to drop before this latest lockdown. Boris and co were lying again on tonight’s briefing.
"We need to live with the virus...... Hmm... tell that to the 100,000 dead.
All the evidence currently is that the vaccines are effective regardless of the variant but don't let that stop your Eeyore impressions. Or maybe Marvin the paranoid android if that's in your cultural sphere.
You might have missed the news recently.
Apparently there’s a vaccine available. More than one, I believe.
It’s just possible this might have an effect on infections when it’s been used on a lot of the population.
I’m no virologist, however, I think that’s how it works: by preventing serious infection.
Apparently there’s a vaccine available. More than one, I believe.
It’s just possible this might have an effect on infections when it’s been used on a lot of the population.
I’m no virologist, however, I think that’s how it works: by preventing serious infection.
Covid is now endemic so it will be with us forever.
However, that will mean a new normal - not the old one.
This virus is worse than 'flu - more hospitalisations.
This virus is in addition to 'flu - it won't replace it.
Immunity only lasts 4-5 months - less than 'flu.
And there is the long-Covid problem.
So far more sick people requiring NHS care.
Will we be ready?
However, that will mean a new normal - not the old one.
This virus is worse than 'flu - more hospitalisations.
This virus is in addition to 'flu - it won't replace it.
Immunity only lasts 4-5 months - less than 'flu.
And there is the long-Covid problem.
So far more sick people requiring NHS care.
Will we be ready?
Exactly....... even when we’ve had the jab we told we can’t do this and that because we could still catch it and spread it .......for Gods sake it’s not going away.......we just want a party with a rammed bar and a sweaty dance floor ??
At last - finally some action on borders and international travel!
Only taken 10 months
Only taken 10 months
Action? Self quarantining, with nobody checking you are actually there? Seems pretty limp to me.
Lunacy to close the travel corridors. Economic suicide and another stab in the back to the travel sector.
Open all borders now!
Open all borders now!
Agreed - they should have closed down the corridors/only let people in who have had a negative test, from the very beginning of all this
No comments article on bbc site about border controls.
But doesn't actually explain if ukgovs policies have worked. Taiwan, s Korea, Japan get no mention but l think they shut borders. If Ukgov has some balance between deaths and £££ then where is the balance sheet?
If ukgovs policies worked then why after 12 months of lessons and other countries results does ukgov deliver highest covid deaths?
But doesn't actually explain if ukgovs policies have worked. Taiwan, s Korea, Japan get no mention but l think they shut borders. If Ukgov has some balance between deaths and £££ then where is the balance sheet?
If ukgovs policies worked then why after 12 months of lessons and other countries results does ukgov deliver highest covid deaths?
They couldn’t do until this month otherwise it would have damaged the Brexit argument about border control.
You realise this UK epidemic has been sustained by domestic community transmission. Imported cases stoped being the catalyst in early March...
The virus will "expand" in every country until pretty much all people are immune by either getting it or being vaccinated. Once each room in a building is ablaze the fire doors are not so relevant. After this life saving Lockdown the Gov will sell another bomb to some nut who will drop it on a school somewhere far away but not up your street. Guess that must be OK because Brits "voted for it".
Its hardly world shattering, a few random countries around the world had access to Britain without quarantining! The majority have had to self isolate on arrival; now, anyone coming to the UK arrives with a negative covid test (proof they haven't got the disease) but still have to quarantine.....where is the logic?
Wife was working in Shop today one of the customers commented how cold it was compared to South Africa where she said she had just returned from no mask and not isolating. South Africa is not a travel corridor. Until travellers are properly quarantined will much change. This looks like a PR stunt.
Waste of time populist measure. You're much more likely to catch the virus from a British person than a foreigner.
a pointless action from the point of view of medicine, and like lock-downs a disastrous one as far as the economy and society as a whole are concerned. Either the standards of the West's in particular politicians is unbelievably poor or there is a Davos global mentality seeing the virus as an opportunity to reset the global system after the 2007 & Central bankers disastrous response to it.
Here's a timeline detailing how badly the Tories have handled this crisis:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/dec/16/covid-chaos-a-timeline-of-the-uks-handling-of-the-coronavirus-crisis
It's fairly clear the Tories still believe in herd immunity despite that nonsense having been debunked.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/dec/16/covid-chaos-a-timeline-of-the-uks-handling-of-the-coronavirus-crisis
It's fairly clear the Tories still believe in herd immunity despite that nonsense having been debunked.
The rate may be dipping, but such news does not mean we should immediately relax. We must continue to distance, wear masks, which should in my opinion be mandatory as in France everywhere out-of-doors, wash hands, sanitize deliveries, avoid shopping in person except perhaps once a week. All this until the virus and its mutations have all but gone, through inoculation and natural immunity.
Any news on covid related corruption? Not from the state propaganda broadcaster I guess.
In the middle of flu season, cold weather, everyone indoors, poor ventilation. Yet a further new strain. Please stop giving false hope.
It is doom and gloom but the controls for the new strain are what we are already doing and the vaciines are likley to work so the short and medium term solutions have not changed - dont be too depressed.
There should be much greater focus on the benefits of VENTILATING indoor spaces - home and work - you don't need the windows wide open, just open a little bit to keep fresh air coming in, to disperse potential viral infected air. If you can't afford it, fair enough, but everyone else please consider it.
I think people need an education in how the "R number" works. A drop in the R number does not mean a drop in the infection rate. An R number of greater than 1 means the infection rate is increasing, if it drops from e.g. 2 to 1.5 it means the rate of increase of infection rate has reduced but the infection rate is still increasing.
I tried before when there was lift lockdown now shills claiming a drop from 1.6 to 1.5 was good ?? it’s pointless trying to explain any number above 1 is disastrous
No wonder most of the population don't understand the rules. What you've said is nonsense.
R is a measure to give a guide to provide a trend.
One only needs to meet any ONE person with Covid to get it too.
One only needs to meet any ONE person with Covid to get it too.
R number is a load of nonsense and of absolute no use which I've been saying for ages.
One article on the BBC says R number still above 1 which means infections increasing (with caveat 'R number based on several week old data'). Another article on BBC says infections seem to be decreasing.
The last 7 days saw 57,000 fewer new cases than the prior 7 days therefore the R number is NOT above 1.
One article on the BBC says R number still above 1 which means infections increasing (with caveat 'R number based on several week old data'). Another article on BBC says infections seem to be decreasing.
The last 7 days saw 57,000 fewer new cases than the prior 7 days therefore the R number is NOT above 1.
I think you’ve confused number of infections with rate of infection.
R means the rate of infection. The higher the value of R the faster the number of infections rises.
If R is 1 then new infections still occur but at a steady rate.
If R is below 1 then new infections still occur but at a decreasing rate.
R means the rate of infection. The higher the value of R the faster the number of infections rises.
If R is 1 then new infections still occur but at a steady rate.
If R is below 1 then new infections still occur but at a decreasing rate.
the r number is not a fact, it is a calculation and an estimate.
IF you know so much you will realise that unless you know the number infected and you can rely on the testing to give you some idea, you might as well use a random number generator for all the reliability you can place on R
New cases aren't falling. They just aren't rising as quickly. The gov't needs to tell employers they must make employees who can work from home. Mine has struggled to agree with it even though I can't get in with the snow. They probably don't want to see that I get more done from home.
We're at 145/100,000, one of the lowest rates in the country and were only in the top two tiers briefly before the latest lockdown. Somebody tell me why that is?
We can but hope as long as people don't see the improvement as a reason to stop being careful and responsible.
China has had lock-downs for over a year, but it is back and they are locking down again, Germany is now in the grip of it. Our reaction to covid will be looked upon by historians with amazement, they'll probably wonder if hysteria wasn't a symptom & why anyone but China believed a lock-down of the healthy & immune & the destruction of the economy & the consequent deaths was thought sensible.
Sorry there is not much correlation. And it's no good getting R to 0.9, it needs to be a lot lower - with so many cases at 0.0 it would take forever to get cases down to a level the the NHS can cope with and provide non covid treatments.
Proof that lockdowns work and following the science is the best thing to do. We need to keep this up until we get the r to under 1 and THEN think about easing restrictions. We also need the public to accept that it has worked and continue to be sensible and we may actually keep it at a low level and avoid a further lockdown.
Can't see it happening though. Too many me me me's out there :-(
Can't see it happening though. Too many me me me's out there :-(
That's great news, however here in Wales there will be no rush by the useless first minister Drakeford to even give us a clue when we're likely to get back to some kind of normal.
Drakeford and normal in the same sentence. Give me a minute to think about that.
Does anyone know? How long is a piece of string? What do you expect him to say? April the 1st?
Shameful and sinister that Drakeford is expending time and energy on minute and pointless tweaks to lockdown rules rather than putting all his efforts, all day and every day, into the only life and livelihood saver: getting the vaccine done. My GP practice still doesn't have any supply and therefore has vaccinated no one yet.
After the stupid 2 week lockdown he did last year he's hopefully waiting for meaningful signs of improvement rather the spouting random dates based on nothing.
Closing Borders, my calendar says 2021, is that right shouldn't that be 2020.........
Police need to randomly check cars during rush hours and if someone is travelling to work but say they could work from home but aren't allowed then their employer needs to be held to account. This is happening at my company where the managers are scared that their employees will prove that they are capable of working without them.
If R>1 and case numbers are rising, the restrictions are not working.
Unfortunately articles like this do more harm than good. There are people in this country who will take every precaution possible, but there are also people who will stretch the rules the first chance they get.
It's great to hear that this lockdown is having an effect, but some people upon hearing this news will take it as an excuse to not bother anymore.
Stay seperate, stay considerate.
It's great to hear that this lockdown is having an effect, but some people upon hearing this news will take it as an excuse to not bother anymore.
Stay seperate, stay considerate.
Lockdown IS having an effect. And yes, 'it' IS still going up. These two statements are not incompatible.
And at long last, the government have closed all travel corridors. Not before time, but doubtless there'll be howls of protest from libertarian loons and those pursuing their own selfish agenda.
Will make no difference.
Just the ten months late then ??????????
Proof that lockdowns work and following the science is the best thing to do. We need to keep this up until we get the r to under 1 and THEN think about easing restrictions. We also need the public to accept that it has worked and continue to be sensible and we may actually keep it at a low level and avoid a further lockdown.
Can't see it happening though. Too many me me me's out there :-(
Can't see it happening though. Too many me me me's out there :-(
Yes some weak feeble action but at least the obvious action that should have been done from the first inkling of a disease. Obviously no one should get round locked up secured quarantine at their full expense for traveling over any border.
This move is timid and feeble but at least in the right direction.
This move is timid and feeble but at least in the right direction.
True, need properly enforced quarantine on arrival like NZ and Aus. It’s the only way as the disease can take days to appear.
Indeed. Just another "gotta be seen to be doing something" sixteenth-measure.
In any case the words stable, bolted, horse, closing, door tend to spring to mind.
In any case the words stable, bolted, horse, closing, door tend to spring to mind.
Exactly what you would expect ...contrast with Churchill's "Collar the lot.." ...Happy medium somewhere in between but nearer the Churchill end......
God, you live up to your name.
Nobody checking?
Police visited my friend's son's partner when she returned from South Africa to ensure that she was there, and they both quarantined.
Police visited my friend's son's partner when she returned from South Africa to ensure that she was there, and they both quarantined.
Moaner
But your other news story says cases rising?
They may be working - for now. The problem is that this will never go away and, unless we continue on/off lockdowns indefinitely, cases will rise when lockdown is lifted. What the country has to realise is that we need to live with the virus rather than think we can defeat it. In about 12 months' time, we will be vaccinating against the dominant Covid strain as per flu, it'll just be normal.
Lockdown does not work, if it did why are we on lockdown 3
Cases are bound to rise at the start of lockdown, it takes time to develp symptoms and the virus can still spread in bubbles (you cannot stop it spreading in bubbles). Only after the virus has consumed the bubbles it starts in, and those people have developed symptoms, would it start to fall. We are not talking days, but weeks.
Would work even better if this lock down wasn't so half baked! Shut the schools totally, and big building sites, and, ooh, lots else. Just shut it all down, get those vaccines applied then as soon as the weather improves we can all come out and party!
Germany is NOT doing better than us. Their vaccination programme is a shambles as due to their privacy laws they are unable to discover the age of patients so they cannot invite older people to be vaccinated.
Just imagine how bad it would be without a lockdown - even one as half-baked as this one, where there are tonnes of people still out and about doing their work. Stop non-essential work full-stop (and fund the affected). I had my MOT done, the garage was full of unmasked employees working on the vehicles. Traffic volumes are still high, it's not people going to the shops.
They reported that infected contacts made over Christmas will appear in the figures by the end of this week ... Then we will have infected contacts made at New Year over the next (nominally) 2 weeks.
So, absolutely essential for everyone to stick like glue to the Covid-safe rules.
Lockdowns do work (except the contributions from careless and not bothered) ... everyone help, stop it ripping thro'.
So, absolutely essential for everyone to stick like glue to the Covid-safe rules.
Lockdowns do work (except the contributions from careless and not bothered) ... everyone help, stop it ripping thro'.
Clearly the lockdowns aren't being policed. I still see folk knowingly breaking the rules
Germany has over 50% less deaths then the uk from a population 17 million larger.
I wouldnt call that "supposedly" doing better then the UK
I wouldnt call that "supposedly" doing better then the UK
Maybe because of the incubation period? But as a world expert virologist you know that alreaady don't you.
German daily new case figures have actually fallen since a pre-Christmas peak, but their death numbers are now verging on as bad as UK.
If your interested I recommend www.tagesschau.de where there graphs which very useful for global figures, updated daily.
If your interested I recommend www.tagesschau.de where there graphs which very useful for global figures, updated daily.
An enforced lockdown world work better, but reducing the R will still have save many many lives while the vaccination is rolled out.
In our area they've fallen consistently for some time now seemingly regardless of lockdowns. We only went to T3 and then T4 shortly before the current lockdown and exhibit 145 cases per 100,000 with relatively few hospitalizations and deaths. That's around 300/100,000 lower than the national average, and this has been the case for most of the pandemic. Don't ask me why as I've no idea.
No they are not. In my area based on the data to the 11th, our rates have being falling for 3 days. So it looks as if the lockdown is having an effect. Should be remembered that Lockdown only started 12 days ago and it always was going to take time to have any impact
Proof that lockdowns work and following the science is the best thing to do. We need to keep this up until we get the r to under 1 and THEN think about easing restrictions. We also need the public to accept that it has worked and continue to be sensible and we may actually keep it at a low level and avoid a further lockdown.
Can't see it happening though. Too many me me me's out there :-(
Can't see it happening though. Too many me me me's out there :-(
No, lockdowns don't work because the effect is only temporary. They would 'work' if the net result was that infections were permanently lowered - this will never happen. Science does not provide the answers but merely gives us something to do in a fairly hopeless situation (as far as beating the virus goes). If you think hard lockdowns will prevent future ones, you are seriously deluded.
Below is a quote from above, how is an R of 1.3 higher than 1.4?
"The UK's epidemic is still officially estimated to be growing, according to the latest R number, but data suggests new cases are beginning to fall.
The R number - which takes into account cases, hospitalisations and deaths - is estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.3, compared with 1 and 1.4 last week"
"The UK's epidemic is still officially estimated to be growing, according to the latest R number, but data suggests new cases are beginning to fall.
The R number - which takes into account cases, hospitalisations and deaths - is estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.3, compared with 1 and 1.4 last week"
Unfortunately articles like this do more harm than good. There are people in this country who will take every precaution possible, but there are also people who will stretch the rules the first chance they get.
It's great to hear that this lockdown is having an effect, but some people upon hearing this news will take it as an excuse to not bother anymore.
Stay seperate, stay considerate.
It's great to hear that this lockdown is having an effect, but some people upon hearing this news will take it as an excuse to not bother anymore.
Stay seperate, stay considerate.
And at long last, the government have closed all travel corridors. Not before time, but doubtless there'll be howls of protest from libertarian loons and those pursuing their own selfish agenda.
You may be right. Probably too little too late, but I'm clinging to the desperate hope that it may have some positive effect...
Where? We are higher than ever before and infections are higher than the point when Johnson was told to enter lockdown on the 19th December!
It’s laughable this truth twister is looking for praise for something that is a bare faced lie
It’s laughable this truth twister is looking for praise for something that is a bare faced lie
Closing Borders, my calendar says 2021, is that right shouldn't that be 2020.........
Our borders have always been closed, apart from between Ireland and Northern Ireland? I spend quite a bit of time in queues to show my passport for the border to open for me.
But then, perhaps World Leading Shambles travelled by dinghy from France, that is a possibility too...
But then, perhaps World Leading Shambles travelled by dinghy from France, that is a possibility too...
If R>1 and case numbers are rising, the restrictions are not working.
Or is the virus just following the gompertz curve as is the usual case.
For the only Control in this mad Lockdown experiment we have to look at what's happening in Sweden.
And luckily for them (and us, if we learn the lesson) all indicators have already started to fall sharply.
If we're smart we'll move to lighter measures asap and PTV.
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
For the only Control in this mad Lockdown experiment we have to look at what's happening in Sweden.
And luckily for them (and us, if we learn the lesson) all indicators have already started to fall sharply.
If we're smart we'll move to lighter measures asap and PTV.
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/se
Funny how the virus follows the Gompertz curve every time we have a lockdown. Surely lockdown and levelling off can't be connected, can they?
Police need to randomly check cars during rush hours and if someone is travelling to work but say they could work from home but aren't allowed then their employer needs to be held to account. This is happening at my company where the managers are scared that their employees will prove that they are capable of working without them.
Is it 20,000 less than when the party of law and order came to power?
Wr need to keep lockdown in place until everyone is vaccinated. This virus is far too dangerous to relax restrictions until at least the end of the year.
The virus isn't that dangerous. Yes, it affects the most vulnerable, so is dangerous to them, but for 97% of the population, it's a mild to moderate illness. The vaccination only offers a possible relief of symptoms if it works well. It does not prevent you from contracting Coronavirus of developing Covid symptoms.
Is that what your Chinese leaders tell you to tell western social media?
And at long last, the government have closed all travel corridors. Not before time, but doubtless there'll be howls of protest from libertarian loons and those pursuing their own selfish agenda.
I think people need an education in how the "R number" works. A drop in the R number does not mean a drop in the infection rate. An R number of greater than 1 means the infection rate is increasing, if it drops from e.g. 2 to 1.5 it means the rate of increase of infection rate has reduced but the infection rate is still increasing.
It's not just R Number though.
S Korea, Japan declare emergencies when covid+ numbers are over 1000 a day.
Yet ukgov has been happy with 4,000 plus covid+ a day since mid September!
No wonder UK managed to breed new super mutant covid strain to export! Was that in ukgovs plans?
Google 'UK covid' for interactive graph.
S Korea, Japan declare emergencies when covid+ numbers are over 1000 a day.
Yet ukgov has been happy with 4,000 plus covid+ a day since mid September!
No wonder UK managed to breed new super mutant covid strain to export! Was that in ukgovs plans?
Google 'UK covid' for interactive graph.
Well said jude
Action? Self quarantining, with nobody checking you are actually there? Seems pretty limp to me.
Utter nonsense article. We are finally closing all borders it might have a better effect
But that wouldn't be true
I think people need an education in how the "R number" works. A drop in the R number does not mean a drop in the infection rate. An R number of greater than 1 means the infection rate is increasing, if it drops from e.g. 2 to 1.5 it means the rate of increase of infection rate has reduced but the infection rate is still increasing.
Explain?
You really don't have a clue, do you?
Every death now is all the more tragic given that we have the vaccines ready and waiting to be administered. We should all make the necessary sacrifices to keep as many people safe as possible now, it's just for a few more months.
All we've had to do this entire pandemic is keep the R number below 1, that's it.
But every single time that the R number rose above one, we ignored it. We delayed, we dithered, we acted too late. And by the time action was taken, the situation was so dire that the action taken needed to be huge (locking down the whole country).
It baffles me how we keep on making the same mistake over and over.
But every single time that the R number rose above one, we ignored it. We delayed, we dithered, we acted too late. And by the time action was taken, the situation was so dire that the action taken needed to be huge (locking down the whole country).
It baffles me how we keep on making the same mistake over and over.
It takes roughly 4 weeks between infection & passing from the virus so almost every death we have seen this week was infected in mid December
At this time Boris knew about the new strain but chose to put London & the rest of the South East into tier 2 putting wealth before health
He dithered & ignored SAGE who pleaded with him to move London up sooner to try to avoid the deaths we are seeing now
At this time Boris knew about the new strain but chose to put London & the rest of the South East into tier 2 putting wealth before health
He dithered & ignored SAGE who pleaded with him to move London up sooner to try to avoid the deaths we are seeing now
Remember the statement of 20,000 deaths. Hollow ring to that one.
Yes. Always easy for someone in a big house with a big pension to say Lockdown. But in a few months time they will forget all about it and when the nurse puts in an offer for the house, he or she will be taken for a ride and totally and utterly shafted for every penny by the seller to whom she gave a life saving injection. That is the UK.
Accept its not for a few more months as the government will be saying the vaccine is ineffective next. But the fact is, the current measures are unsustainable for the overall health of society. People should be allowed back to normal once the susceptible have had ample time to get the vaccine.
An 80 year old terminally ill & dying is sad, tho' pneumonia isn't called the old man's friend for nothing. Tragedy is young lives destroyed by lock-downs & ignorance like yours demanding it. Young lives are destroyed and shortened & covid does not do that anywhere near as effectively as lock-downs - ask Spain
https://www.euronews.com/2020/12/11/new-poverty-hits-europe?minutetv=true
https://www.euronews.com/2020/12/11/new-poverty-hits-europe?minutetv=true
BBC article:
Covid-19: Early signs of lockdown restrictions working....alongside headline that cases are rising???
Covid-19: Early signs of lockdown restrictions working....alongside headline that cases are rising???
...rising more slowly...
There were a record number of tests yesterday, (something the utterly useless & deceitful BBC always ignore) the more tests you do the more 'cases' you're likely to get given that there are always false positives.
The R number updates are behind the curve as they include data from a couple of weeks ago.
Hence when the Spanish 'summer holiday' variant started to take off the R numbers being waved about were super-low and people were starting to talk as if it was all over even though cases were starting to rise.
Hence when the Spanish 'summer holiday' variant started to take off the R numbers being waved about were super-low and people were starting to talk as if it was all over even though cases were starting to rise.
Police need to randomly check cars during rush hours and if someone is travelling to work but say they could work from home but aren't allowed then their employer needs to be held to account. This is happening at my company where the managers are scared that their employees will prove that they are capable of working without them.
Hopefully this is the start of falling infections and death rates.
1,248 not 1,500.
Do try to keep up.
Do try to keep up.
People have enough misinformation to cope with daily. Your comment falls into that and is disgraceful. If you must post make sure your facts are correct as the UK has had over 1500 deaths only once, the UK 7 day rolling average daily rate is just over 1000.
Don't worry once infections and deaths start going down the scientists will bring our t their trump card the R rate to keep lockdown going.
Wait for the figures officially, the ONS data doesn't support locking down anyone under 45 in fact I'd say anyone healthy under 65 if you look at co-morbidity and age figures. Euromomo doesn't support the new black-death scenario and given this week the BBC admitted UK mortality per 100,000 was higher in 2000 - 2009 (and earlier but their graph stopped at 2000) then maybe you need a reality check
Just to make it clear:
1. The Government is not closing the borders
2. Nobody is being stopped from coming in
3. People have been "doing quarantines" from most of the World all along
4. All this affects is the places that didn't really have a virus problem, before the Brits started going there...!
5. Nobody will check whether or not someone is remaining in quarantine for the whole period.
1. The Government is not closing the borders
2. Nobody is being stopped from coming in
3. People have been "doing quarantines" from most of the World all along
4. All this affects is the places that didn't really have a virus problem, before the Brits started going there...!
5. Nobody will check whether or not someone is remaining in quarantine for the whole period.
I can attest to no.5, nor did anyone check if I was OK - had all my meds etc.
Absolute rubbish, if you look at the infection spread in the early months it follows the Chinese 'Belt and Road' initiative, but hey, when you are doing all your international travelling and posting, presumably from airports and planes etc, maybe you could google that & also ask why Italy's quarantined north centered around their 2 largest ex-pat Chinese communities.
i know this comment wont be posted but why are places like China got no deaths and we have over a 1000 a day what are we doing different?and why is it not mentoned in the media at all?
I query that too. How, and they have no vaccine programme!
Track and trace that works ruthlessly enforced lockdowns no messing about
Because its covered up in China?
You believe news that comes out of China? There's your answer...
Quarantine centres? Re-education camps? They are taking a much less tolerant line with people flaunting the rules. I prefer my freedoms, but they come at a cost of allowing the less sensible those same freedoms too.
Simple, they lie.
Deaths in Wuhan were at least 10 times the number the Chinese Communist Party admitted to.
Remember, this is the CCP who have refused access for WHO investigators & who deny having concentration camps for Uighurs despite overwhelming evidence they're lying.
Deaths in Wuhan were at least 10 times the number the Chinese Communist Party admitted to.
Remember, this is the CCP who have refused access for WHO investigators & who deny having concentration camps for Uighurs despite overwhelming evidence they're lying.
The virus isn't that dangerous. Yes, it affects the most vulnerable, so is dangerous to them, but for 97% of the population, it's a mild to moderate illness. The vaccination only offers a possible relief of symptoms if it works well. It does not prevent you from contracting Coronavirus of developing Covid symptoms.
Cases are rising even in lockdown. So how does lockdown work? Same problem in countries such as Germany who are supposed to be doing better than UK.
"Parachutes don't work, if it did why are we still falling"
It's not the same as the lockdown in March onwards.
The crowded trains and traffic jams underline this.
Some people have to mix with others to get to work.
Many bosses are demanding their employees go to work when they could easily work from home.
More going into crowded places without masks.
The crowded trains and traffic jams underline this.
Some people have to mix with others to get to work.
Many bosses are demanding their employees go to work when they could easily work from home.
More going into crowded places without masks.
You really haven't been paying attention have you|
All the trash talk in autumn about how the north was handling covid all whilst ignoring increasing infection rate in the south east. Then to have a new, more infectious, strain appear in the south east and patients getting transferred to northern hospitals. Not looking so smug now.
"It is not clear whether this second strain is more contagious or not. "
It doesn't matter much either, the controls that limit spread are essentially what we are already doing and the vaccines are likely to work so the short and medium term solutions do not change. Its like the BBC want people to panic, continuously, "things going terribly wrong is inevitable, where will they go wrong next?"
It doesn't matter much either, the controls that limit spread are essentially what we are already doing and the vaccines are likely to work so the short and medium term solutions do not change. Its like the BBC want people to panic, continuously, "things going terribly wrong is inevitable, where will they go wrong next?"
Deluded
AT LAST The PM has stopped all overseas flights into the UK to stop the spread of many many differing types of Covid coming into this Country.
At last some common sense. We also need to do a similar thing with all the illegal immigrants crossing the channel. Just turn em round send em back from whence they came!
At last some common sense. We also need to do a similar thing with all the illegal immigrants crossing the channel. Just turn em round send em back from whence they came!
But France has closed the border to travellers from UK.
None of that is true. Flights are still coming in.
So again lock downs work but it should never have been allowed to get to this. Seems we are at last locking our borders down 10 months in after 80,000 dead!
But they aren't locked down.
Its not a border lockdown, its just removing travel corridors. You can still travel to and from the UK if you follow the restrictions.
Given the massive resources within our armed forces and the obvious amount of medics and facilities , including fully equipped hospital ships, why are the govt whilst insisting the NHS are under extreme pressure not using our military ? There are also many cruise ships available and historically they have been used in emergency...what are they holding the military back for exactly ?
Be patient, all will become clear. The next stage from our Police State is a Military State.
Massive? Which century are you living in? There have been nothing but cuts since the 1950s. The Royal Navy is a shadow of its former self, there is no Royal Air Force station south of the Thames and with the end of the BAOR the Army continues to decline. At least Boris has committed to rebuilding our defences just a little.
I agree totally. Should be ashamed that they are not using these resources. Make me wonder why the press dond push for answers on this.
Um , cruise ships are currently anchored up around pool, Weymouth and Lyme bays as they are massive virus incubators, do you not remember the Diamonds Princess problem at the start of this last year ?
We have one hospital ship with a capacity of 100 beds and almost all military medics already work in NHS hospitals at the garrison towns.
because it isn't as bad as they claim, or else someone is fiddling the ONS and NHS figures to give that impression. The NHS annual flu season cry of we are about to be overwhelmed is likes wishing people 'Happy New Year' on Jan 1st.
Just to make it clear:
1. The Government is not closing the borders
2. Nobody is being stopped from coming in
3. People have been "doing quarantines" from most of the World all along
4. All this affects is the places that didn't really have a virus problem, before the Brits started going there...!
5. Nobody will check whether or not someone is remaining in quarantine for the whole period.
1. The Government is not closing the borders
2. Nobody is being stopped from coming in
3. People have been "doing quarantines" from most of the World all along
4. All this affects is the places that didn't really have a virus problem, before the Brits started going there...!
5. Nobody will check whether or not someone is remaining in quarantine for the whole period.
Each day for my lunch break I go for a run across fields so I can easily avoid people, then after work I go for a walk. It staggers me (with the exception of some of the "youf" from the local college) how few people wear masks.
I'm not surprised we're in this situation - people still don't seem to take it seriously and refuse to exhibit any personal responsibility.
I'm not surprised we're in this situation - people still don't seem to take it seriously and refuse to exhibit any personal responsibility.
For anyone not suffering depression but wants to know what it feels like. Tune in now and watch Witty, the most depressing man on the planet. What is he going to do with himself once this is all over?
They're not closing the borders.
The high number of cases are apparently a reflection of social mixing over Christmas. I know the government changes their tune many times and it was confusing also, But if the public have used common sense, these would have been much lower now. I totally blame the public for flouting the rules, and not abiding by the restrictions, whoever broke the rules I have no sympathy for, they a just IDIOTS.
I actually blame idiot politicians and so called scientists for sending out conflicting statements and illogical rules that are impossible to police. That's not the public's fault
or better informed than you, the mortality is increasingly in care homes among the elderly and very sick, as usual and I doubt they all flocked to London's train stations and airports to travel somewhere.
AT LAST The PM has stopped all overseas flights into the UK to stop the spread of many many differing types of Covid coming into this Country.
At last some common sense. We also need to do a similar thing with all the illegal immigrants crossing the channel. Just turn em round send em back from whence they came!
At last some common sense. We also need to do a similar thing with all the illegal immigrants crossing the channel. Just turn em round send em back from whence they came!
Cases are rising even in lockdown. So how does lockdown work? Same problem in countries such as Germany who are supposed to be doing better than UK.
Cases are bound to rise at the start of lockdown, it takes time to develp symptoms and the virus can still spread in bubbles (you cannot stop it spreading in bubbles). Only after the virus has consumed the bubbles it starts in, and those people have developed symptoms, would it start to fall. We are not talking days, but weeks.
Thank you for pointing this out. You said what I was going to say.
The biggest problem is when people don’t take heed of hands, mask and space when we come out of lockdowns. Then we go back to square one.
The biggest problem is when people don’t take heed of hands, mask and space when we come out of lockdowns. Then we go back to square one.
See my comment above re China. Tighter lockdowns work.
The gullible and naïve are the ones who have not understood that this UK lockdown is anything but as their are more people wondering about spreading the virus due having to travel to work via public transport or even just going shopping.
The gullible and naïve are the ones who have not understood that this UK lockdown is anything but as their are more people wondering about spreading the virus due having to travel to work via public transport or even just going shopping.