Coronavirus R number increases as cases rise
25/09/2020 | news | other | 2,286
Every case is estimated to result in between 1.2 and 1.5 further infections, government estimates find.
1
25/09/2020 13:42:51 37 34
bbc
R number comes down.....BBC are totally disinterested....R number goes up.....
26/09/2020 23:55:00 0 3
bbc
1/4 of brits are now under kinda of lockdown and MASSIVE numbers of univ students are stuck in packed halls "scared and confused". I predicted this to happen in other HYS when the gov demands back to schools and univ Next week this time, 1/3 of brits will be under kinda of lockdown for sure Well, never mind, I am out of this COVID UK !
2
25/09/2020 13:42:51 13 13
bbc
A random survey?? What does that mean exactly!?!?
877
mat
25/09/2020 16:46:06 3 0
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2. Viruses don't have "steam" HAHAHAHA!
3
25/09/2020 13:43:22 19 19
bbc
Lockdown 2 needed Clearly the eat to help and back to office advice backfired Panic buying started and furlough ending A winter of mass unemployment
"Rates are currently highest in those aged 17-24" Well what a surprise - the age group that throughout lock down behaved as if nothing was happening, went on hols and now spreading it around unis. And @3. No we do not need lockdown 2. From what I saw most office workers didn't go back. Panic buying is not needed. People need to calm down and just follow the rules we have. Removed
47
25/09/2020 13:51:26 30 7
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@3 Panda Lockdown 2 needed Better the boneheads, arrogant and selfish in our society start acting like grown-ups.
4
25/09/2020 13:44:12 13 22
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I'm off to buy toilet roll
28
25/09/2020 13:47:44 63 2
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4. Tagnuts "I'm off to buy toilet roll " Too late. Its all gone. You should have panicked like the other idiots. Perhaps buy a few newspapers? Much better value, read then use.
5
25/09/2020 13:44:12 261 22
bbc
Gosh what was all that money for if we have ended up back at sq 1 A lot of employers ditching a lot of older employees I am seeing my job offered at 1/2 of what I used to get paid
507
25/09/2020 15:19:46 5 7
bbc
5.What Is Your Problem Gosh what was all that money for if we have ended up back at sq 1 A lot of employers ditching a lot of older employees I am seeing my job offered at 1/2 of what I used to get paid" whooooa! if that's true u must have been ripping your employer off no wonder so many businesses fail with such greedy employees
6
25/09/2020 13:44:13 60 19
bbc
Dr Nicola Steedman, Scotland Deputy CMO, just admitted live at the daily briefing that one of the reasons they don’t mass test students is that those with no symptoms being tested increases the chances of false +ve’s and therefore students having to self isolate unnecessarily. Implication is that the number of 'cases' UK wide is unreliable.
324
25/09/2020 14:41:16 10 5
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6. Posted by Bill Mysterious " Implication is that the number of 'cases' UK wide is unreliable. " Not when the hospital admissions and number of deaths start to increase at a similar rate. That is unequivocal evidence I would suggest.
26/09/2020 15:28:54 1 3
bbc
6 mths down the line still no 100% decent App orTest/Trace millions of pounds thrown down the drain and thousands of numpties walking round London like they are immortal.Virus that is truly frightening but cabinet with attitude of our way or no way not helping.Final chapter of exit from EU approaching with what appears to be no deal chaos.Time for Parliament to get a grip of this cabinet.
7
25/09/2020 13:44:13 411 37
bbc
Had to get bus today for hospital appt. Young teenager took mask off and told friend 'I feel sick but at least we don't have to go to school' They were supposed to be isolating at home. I got off bus and walked. Same parents who said it was dangerous for kids to go back? If your kids are sent home, keep them home
771
25/09/2020 16:14:29 2 0
bbc
@7 We don’t know if this happened the way you report We don’t know that the teen in question had CV19 or CV19 symptoms which would mean they should self-isolate We don’t know if the teen’s parents were aware of, or their role in, the teen being on the bus But hey, it provides an opportunity for HYSers to focus on one of their many pet hate groups - “PARENTS” So, jobsagoodun, eh?
Removed
849
25/09/2020 16:37:52 12 1
bbc
@ 8 41. Posted by Just now on Just now Very heartening new on Covid 19 Infection rate is soaring Death rate remains the same —— Errrm no. You cannot compare today’s infection rate with today’s death rate, on average it takes 23 days to die from covid following a positive test. Therefore you will need to revisit your statement in about 3 weeks time.
9
25/09/2020 13:44:42 26 4
bbc
Well, the dying ember of good news is that it isn't doubling each week, only every 10 days or thereabouts. Otherwise, this is not good at all, and I don't think the measures put in place this week will have a massive effect overall, and certainly won't get R under 1 - which previous required a very restrictive lockdown. Hopefully the understandable student new term mingling is over.
25/09/2020 19:54:31 2 1
bbc
@9 Graham ...I don't think the measures put in place this week will have a massive effect overall, and certainly won't get R under 1... == It surely doesn't help to announce a new restriction three or four days before it comes into force? Of course a lot of the stoopid & inconsiderate idiots will be out trying to make the most of it before the deadline . . . ! Gee, I wonder what happens then?
10
25/09/2020 13:44:42 240 6
bbc
“Infections rates are highest in the north west of England and in London.” If the scenes circulating online from London last night of the 10pm curfew effects are anything to go by, the infection rates here won’t drop anytime soon, where the resultant weakness of everyone leaving pubs, etc. and descending onto transport networks all at once was exposed.
11
25/09/2020 13:45:13 9 8
bbc
Here we go. Lockdown 2. "This time it's for revenge." Not at a cinema near you.
105
25/09/2020 14:00:43 9 1
bbc
11. Posted bySaltfordianon Here we go. Lockdown 2. "This time it's for revenge." Not at a cinema near you. ---------- Should that not be Lockdown 2. "This time it's forever"??
12
Bob
25/09/2020 13:45:13 16 5
bbc
If this coronavirus is increasing dramatically amongst the population, then can we assume that daily briefings will be reintroduced soon?
60
25/09/2020 13:53:37 7 12
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12. Bob Ah yes, I can't wait for the return of Sir Patrick "Herd Immunity" Vallance (who just happens to own half a million in GSK stock)
13
nic
25/09/2020 13:45:33 17 118
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Lies
14
25/09/2020 13:45:43 29 119
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Lies, damned lies, and ONS statistics
15
25/09/2020 13:45:43 550 106
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Lord Sumption’s analysis of this is plainly correct. You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found. Such a lockdown is plainly impossible, and a grossly disproportionate interference with our civil liberties. Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with our lives.
145
25/09/2020 14:08:29 124 3
bbc
@15. adraxis Quote, "take sensible precautions" And there lies the problem, you are right about getting on with our lives, but it's very difficult when there's so many idiots out there. Called on at the last minute to take my Grandson to school, we were the ONLY two wearing masks, obviously our Governments first mistake of many was to assume everyone had some common sense, WRONG
206
25/09/2020 14:17:23 12 5
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@15 Easier said than done. Trying to ask under 30s to take precautions is like asking the government to cut our taxes by 50%. Not going to happen.
285
25/09/2020 14:32:42 8 2
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15. Posted by adraxis (currently top answer) The problem is not everyone is/have been taking sensible precautions so that the rest of "us" can get on with our lives It's been said before "If this virus only affected the 18-30 group there'd be plenty of snitching and social media negativity (with zero protests) towards those flouting existing guidelines....
25/09/2020 17:40:03 3 4
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@15 adraxis "Lord Sumption’s analysis of this is plainly correct. You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found." How on earth is this nonsensical comment rated number 1? A proper quarantine across the world would have seen the virus die out and that should still be the way forward now. If a virus has no one to infect it has nowhere to go!
25/09/2020 20:04:59 13 8
bbc
@15 adraxis ...You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found. Such a lockdown is plainly impossible... Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with our lives. == Fewer infected people means less chance of getting infected. Lockdown should've started earlier and eased more slowly. Well done (again!) Bojo & Gollum. NOT!
25/09/2020 23:23:00 3 2
bbc
15. Posted byadraxison 25 Sept 2020 13:45 "Such a lockdown is plainly impossible, and a grossly disproportionate interference with our civil liberties." It's not impossible. "Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with our lives." Let me correct that for you - "Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with dying."
26/09/2020 14:32:46 2 1
bbc
@15 adraxis "Lord Sumption’s analysis of this is plainly correct. You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found." How on earth is this nonsensical comment rated number 1? A proper quarantine across the world would have seen the virus die out and that should still be the way forward now. If a virus has no one to infect it has nowhere to go!!!
16
25/09/2020 13:45:43 0 6
bbc
One ray of hope: The sooner it a
17
25/09/2020 13:45:53 29 23
bbc
I hope everyone now realised what a mistake it was to relax restrictions too soon. Holidays at home and overseas, “eat out to help out”, schools reopening, going back to work, and universities reopening have all helped to spread the infection and taken the country back to where it was in March. There may be fewer deaths this autumn because so many older and vulnerable people have already died.
18
25/09/2020 13:46:23 31 32
bbc
It's hard to imagine a more incompetent bunch than those in this Government. As an island nation, to have struggled so much with this virus is staggering. The economic impact will be felt for a decade. From track and trace fiasco to confused messaging to the care home debacle to Barnard Castle and everything in between, these ministers should bow their heads in shame. Permanently.
25/09/2020 20:13:06 3 3
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@18 WillyB It's hard to imagine a more incompetent bunch than those in this Government. ...The economic impact will be felt for a decade. From track & trace fiasco to confused messaging to the care home debacle to Barnard Castle & everything in between, these ministers should bow their heads in shame. Permanently. == Is there a case for charges of Manslaughter to be brought against them?
19
25/09/2020 13:46:23 34 12
bbc
If the rate of infection is highest among those aged 17 - 24 then that is the age group that must bear the brunt of any restrictions. In the long term the economic damage which is being done to the economy will also have the biggest impact on this age group. They will probably suffer increased taxation for the rest of their lives and may have greater periods of unemployment.
20
25/09/2020 13:46:33 23 19
bbc
Close the pubs, for goodness' sake. Don't pretend they are a weird alternative dimension where coronavirus can't be transmitted. Also, masks don't seem to be doing a whole lot of good, do they?
25/09/2020 20:19:11 3 2
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@20 Zog the Undeniable Close the pubs, for goodness' sake. Don't pretend they are a weird alternative dimension where coronavirus can't be transmitted. Also, masks don't seem to be doing a whole lot of good, do they? == Well, the masks have been shown to work BUT ONLY IF PEOPLE ACTUALLY WEAR THEM WHEN IN PROXIMITY TO OTHERS REGARDLESS OF BEING INSIDE OR OUTSIDE! And wash their hands!
21
25/09/2020 13:46:33 210 46
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Oh for goodness sakes. The only testing that was done at the height of this pandemic was hospital patients with a cough. No 17 to 24 year old was tested so you will never know if it is spreading in that age group or not. It has probably always been there, like the infection rate in March was probably ten times what they thought. Are they in hospital though?
213
25/09/2020 14:18:44 30 3
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21. Oh for goodness sakes. The only testing that was done at the height of this pandemic was hospital patients with a cough. --- It was worse. I had bad cough, temp, was struggling to breathe, resting heart rate of 120. Walked to nearby A&E (so I didn't infect ambulance crew), had to stop for breath 3 times in 15 mins. I'm 26 and reasonably fit. Checked my SATS, sent me home. No test.
22
25/09/2020 13:47:03 33 109
bbc
What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing. Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up? If you have a household where one has it perhaps the rest of the place has it so they all got tested and all had it. Statistics....... rubbish without some qualification folks.
61
25/09/2020 13:53:37 245 17
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@22 Mr-Angry-dave-kent "What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing. Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up?" Do pay attention: more testing does NOT influence the R number, which is a RATE, not a number of reported cases. More tests means, in fact, that our ESTIMATE of the R number becomes more accurate.
131
25/09/2020 14:05:07 9 2
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22. Posted by Mr-Angry-dave-kent The number of positive cases are increasing faster than the number of tests taken are increasing. That should tell you something.
23
25/09/2020 13:47:03 394 95
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To those who are trying to downplay this, a word of advice. Do not try picking a fight with an exponential. You will lose.
85
25/09/2020 13:57:19 129 24
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23. Tortoise To those who are trying to downplay this, a word of advice. Do not try picking a fight with an exponential. You will lose. -- You are not wrong, but the problem is those trying to downplay the pandemic wouldn't know an exponential if one smacked them in the face and kept smacking them in the face with ever increasing rapidity. Be fun to try it though.
24
25/09/2020 13:47:03 30 10
bbc
It would be good to be able to compare ourselves to some of the better performing counties like Germany. In the first wave the blame was that we didn't have tracing. Now we have double their tracing capacity and we are still rising quickly.
25
25/09/2020 13:47:03 24 27
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I think we are going to have to accept the fact that it’s going to rip through the entire Global population and let it take its toll.
Removed
27
25/09/2020 13:47:24 124 31
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Well done Covaidiots. 1. Could not be bothered to wear masks on trains, planes and in store, or just hanging down around the mouth. 2. Went to illegal raves.We have civil rights mentality. 3. Attended parties/pubs;who gives a t##s what the guidance says 4. Refuse to self isolate despite being tested positive. Bit like the returning holiday from Bolton - spread it around. Impressive!
4
25/09/2020 13:44:12 13 22
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I'm off to buy toilet roll
28
25/09/2020 13:47:44 63 2
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4. Tagnuts "I'm off to buy toilet roll " Too late. Its all gone. You should have panicked like the other idiots. Perhaps buy a few newspapers? Much better value, read then use.
29
25/09/2020 13:48:04 15 7
bbc
A complete strict lockdown is what worked in China. Easing lockdown, I am fully aware of the need to balance it with economic reasons, and social distancing just do not go hand in hand. Half measure just simply won't work. Or else, we may as well forget any measures and pray for the best. Not something I would personally opt for.
30
25/09/2020 13:48:24 13 3
bbc
Our response to this pandemic has been passive and reactionary. We have to get a forward-looking plan together and stick to it. We need to get ahead of this thing. Maybe that’s what the ‘6 months of measures’ is all about... but let’s see how effective it is and if we stick to it.
31
25/09/2020 13:48:24 11 2
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It's funny how demand for testing has increased so much that the testing centres are struggling to coping with the numbers & at the same time the number of found cases has increased...
3
25/09/2020 13:43:22 19 19
bbc
Lockdown 2 needed Clearly the eat to help and back to office advice backfired Panic buying started and furlough ending A winter of mass unemployment
"Rates are currently highest in those aged 17-24" Well what a surprise - the age group that throughout lock down behaved as if nothing was happening, went on hols and now spreading it around unis. And @3. No we do not need lockdown 2. From what I saw most office workers didn't go back. Panic buying is not needed. People need to calm down and just follow the rules we have. Removed
33
25/09/2020 13:48:24 11 5
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Isn't this a higher R number than when we were in full lockdown?
34
25/09/2020 13:48:44 6 1
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I've been doing my own estimates. From cases R is daily new cases/ 7 day average ten days earlier. R = 6634/3004 = 2.2 From growth rate R= 1+daily rate of rise* generation time R=1+0.22*5 = 2.1
98
25/09/2020 13:58:50 4 0
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34 Entropic Man. I understood the infection cycle time for Covid to be 5 days - that’s the number that was used by Witty etc. explaining R a while ago. So if cases double every 10 days, then R would actually be r2 or 1.41.
35
25/09/2020 13:48:44 298 71
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If people are too stupid or arrogant to follow simple rules then this is the result.
36
25/09/2020 13:48:55 21 10
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Comment that history will repeat itself exactly and that there will be a second, bigger spike and get down-voted. Some people just don't like the truth.
52
25/09/2020 13:52:06 10 1
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36 the spanish flu certainly had multiple spikes, the second was bigger than the first but theat may in part have been better reporting after the war. But it lasted 2 years.
37
25/09/2020 13:49:15 13 17
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Government on the back foot as usual
70
25/09/2020 13:55:38 21 4
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@37 wedontcarrybottles Government on the back foot as usual Hardly surprising when one looks around at the state of the public in this country. Not a lot of common sense out and about.
38
25/09/2020 13:49:35 36 15
bbc
One ray of hope: The sooner it happens, the sooner it will be over.
39
25/09/2020 13:49:55 46 16
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People going into bars and getting drunk with no social distancing, children going back to schoos and mixing, young people going to University moving from hotspot areas to other areas. People going on holidays and bringing it back and infecting others. Are we really surprised? We have been told for months that the students going to Universities would be a danger point. Opening up too much too soon
40
25/09/2020 13:50:15 17 3
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And of course that curfew at 10.00pm for those diseased drinkers and letting the university students go back as normal will sort the issue out, won't it?.........Not.
25/09/2020 20:05:13 8 7
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40 people died of coronavirus yesterday. Probably 1,500 to 1,600 people died of other causes.
41
DJP
25/09/2020 13:50:25 16 8
bbc
The timing couldn't have been worse really. If only we could have a two week total lockdown to short circuit the rise, then we could look forward to Christmas and a vaccine early next year. I know it's a balance between the economy, N.H.S. and everything else. Very difficult.
42
25/09/2020 13:50:35 24 8
bbc
Where is the data showing how people admitted into hospital contracted the virus. Just saying. Do they have children, grandchildren, teenagers ? Did they go to a pub, catch the bus or go to a certain retail shop? A standard questionnaire needs to be completed for every case. So far we a pointing fingered with no proof
63
25/09/2020 13:53:57 17 9
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@42 wysiwyg. Spot on. I really don't care if there are 10 zillion cases. What i want to know is how many are being admitted to hospital / dying and their demographic. Are they old with lots of health conditions? All i've heard is that there is an increase in women aged 20-40 being admitted. An increase of how many? 1 is an increase on zero don't forget. Manipulating stats and denying us info again
82
25/09/2020 13:56:59 7 1
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42 What, you mean a slightly intelligent science driven type of approach? Come now, we are British, such behaviour will never ever do, still upper lip, and carry on
43
25/09/2020 13:50:45 4 1
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Hope y'all like WFH.
44
25/09/2020 13:51:06 15 7
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"Rates are currently highest in those aged 17-24" Has the government considered the benefits of a cull?
45
ken
25/09/2020 13:51:06 310 30
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Basically common sense has not prevailed so back to square one on the snakes and ladders board
770
25/09/2020 16:13:39 8 9
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45 "Basically common sense has not prevailed so back to square one on the snakes and ladders board " No evidence of this of course. Just a presumption that because people went out, they didn't follow the advice. Hancock loves people like you, it gets him and Boris off the hook.
25/09/2020 18:59:41 11 11
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45. ken "Basically common sense has not prevailed so back to square one on the snakes and ladders board" --- Why are we surprised? Look back at what else has happened. Panic buying of toilet rolls. Believing in Boris Johnson. Voting for the self harm that is Brexit...
46
25/09/2020 13:51:06 6 14
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We are on course for a world beating 2nd Wave - the pandemic fires are going to burn bright this winter.
3
25/09/2020 13:43:22 19 19
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Lockdown 2 needed Clearly the eat to help and back to office advice backfired Panic buying started and furlough ending A winter of mass unemployment
47
25/09/2020 13:51:26 30 7
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@3 Panda Lockdown 2 needed Better the boneheads, arrogant and selfish in our society start acting like grown-ups.
48
25/09/2020 13:48:46 4 1
bbc
The Zoe app states 17,444 new cases expected each day. your number is considerably out of date.
49
25/09/2020 13:50:46 4 3
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No home tests available in my area for days and service closed over the weekend any way this week. If you have symptoms but cant get tested are you counted? If not wont the real results be higher and if you are where is the proof?
Deaths? Deaths of healthy people without an underlying condition? Deaths of people solely due to covid? And yet the BBC keep telling us the number of deaths in ‘Trumps America’ The BBC are scum. Removed
51
25/09/2020 13:51:46 15 9
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If a vaccine is a few months away then limited lockdown to save lives make sense. However, if it continues to disappaer over the horizon (Sept, Dec and now spring) then we need to shield the vunerable and let the rest of us work on herd immunity.
101
25/09/2020 13:59:42 19 10
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@51 we need to shield the vunerable and let the rest of us work on herd immunity. _ Will you come back and say that when you can't climb a flight of stairs because of your long covid? Or is your computer on the first floor?
111
25/09/2020 14:01:54 24 6
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@51 "If [a vaccine] continues to disappaer over the horizo n... then we need to shield the vunerable and let the rest of us work on herd immunity." Unfortunately herd immunity without a vaccine is not going to happen anytime soon, and may not even work. Would require 60-80% of the population infected (with huge associated mortality), and it is not clear that immunity is long-lasting.
36
25/09/2020 13:48:55 21 10
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Comment that history will repeat itself exactly and that there will be a second, bigger spike and get down-voted. Some people just don't like the truth.
52
25/09/2020 13:52:06 10 1
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36 the spanish flu certainly had multiple spikes, the second was bigger than the first but theat may in part have been better reporting after the war. But it lasted 2 years.
53
Tv
25/09/2020 13:52:06 13 10
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Time for some more BLM protests because those do not increase R according to the fake news. #R-Blessed
54
25/09/2020 13:52:26 358 63
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Meanwhile my office worker son could easily work from home but is not allowed to by his boss. But hey, it's okay; the pubs are closing an hour earlier. This country is run and populated by idiots.
55
25/09/2020 13:52:26 11 6
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Meanwhile another ‘Royal’ baby. Life just keeps giving!
56
25/09/2020 13:52:36 8 9
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https://youtu.be/pk7ycz0aHUA Is Dominic raab saying that 93% of PCR tests are false positives? Does that mean witty and Ballance have been making predictions from dodgy test results
57
25/09/2020 13:52:36 4 3
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Few deaths? Wait and see, the Oxfords infection centre are aspecting another 50.000 before March 2021 if everything goes well.And to me dose not look like ??
58
25/09/2020 13:52:36 14 10
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Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea.
78
25/09/2020 13:56:29 18 3
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58. Posted by Snoopies78 "Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea." My girlfriend seemed to enjoy it.
59
25/09/2020 13:52:56 12 8
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Can somebody tell me why the Pubs are the fall guy for the government ?. Cases have risen sharply since the start of September when the schools etc went back and Boris told office staff to get back to work and stop working from home. You could not make it up
88
25/09/2020 13:57:39 126 22
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59. Posted by wayne on Just now Can somebody tell me why the Pubs are the fall guy for the government ?. Because 'social distancing' (sic) has not been followed in pubs, bars, street parties and raves You would think that if an 18 year-old was sufficiently intelligent to go to University, then they'd also be able to follow social distancing. Obviously not the case for so many!
12
Bob
25/09/2020 13:45:13 16 5
bbc
If this coronavirus is increasing dramatically amongst the population, then can we assume that daily briefings will be reintroduced soon?
60
25/09/2020 13:53:37 7 12
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12. Bob Ah yes, I can't wait for the return of Sir Patrick "Herd Immunity" Vallance (who just happens to own half a million in GSK stock)
22
25/09/2020 13:47:03 33 109
bbc
What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing. Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up? If you have a household where one has it perhaps the rest of the place has it so they all got tested and all had it. Statistics....... rubbish without some qualification folks.
61
25/09/2020 13:53:37 245 17
bbc
@22 Mr-Angry-dave-kent "What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing. Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up?" Do pay attention: more testing does NOT influence the R number, which is a RATE, not a number of reported cases. More tests means, in fact, that our ESTIMATE of the R number becomes more accurate.
719
25/09/2020 16:01:40 3 8
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61. Posted byXerblaon Do pay attention: more testing does NOT influence the R number, which is a RATE, not a number of reported cases. More tests means, in fact, that our ESTIMATE of the R number becomes more accurate. - So if it makes it more accurate then it clearly does influence the R number doesn't it?
752
25/09/2020 16:10:57 8 1
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@61: "More tests means, in fact, that our ESTIMATE of the R number becomes more accurate." @719: "So if it makes it more accurate then it clearly does influence the R number doesn't it?" No; google 'population vs. sample statistics'. 'The R number' is a real thing, an actual number. But we can only estimate it. The number of tests influences the accuracy of the estimate, not R itself.
62
25/09/2020 13:53:47 6 72
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up 60% in a week =Terrified !!!!!!!!!!!!!! Well, I left the COVID UK last week, eventually !!!! but don't blame me I did not warn you ALL
42
25/09/2020 13:50:35 24 8
bbc
Where is the data showing how people admitted into hospital contracted the virus. Just saying. Do they have children, grandchildren, teenagers ? Did they go to a pub, catch the bus or go to a certain retail shop? A standard questionnaire needs to be completed for every case. So far we a pointing fingered with no proof
63
25/09/2020 13:53:57 17 9
bbc
@42 wysiwyg. Spot on. I really don't care if there are 10 zillion cases. What i want to know is how many are being admitted to hospital / dying and their demographic. Are they old with lots of health conditions? All i've heard is that there is an increase in women aged 20-40 being admitted. An increase of how many? 1 is an increase on zero don't forget. Manipulating stats and denying us info again
64
25/09/2020 13:54:37 4 4
bbc
I wonder what the magic number is for further restrictions? Secondary schools going remote and a curfew (bar people needing to work) seem sensible next steps.
65
25/09/2020 13:54:58 17 9
bbc
Deaths? Deaths of healthy people without an underlying condition? Deaths of people solely due to covid? And yet the BBC keep telling us the number of deaths in ‘Trumps America’
66
25/09/2020 13:54:58 14 12
bbc
There is another way of looking at this: its a sign of herd immunity. This has always been the most likely solution. Protect the most vulnerable and just let the virus do its worst. In other words behave exactly as we do every year when the inevitable new virus appears. There have been worse epidemics in the past 20 years with more deaths. But we did not wreck the economy to get over it.
158
25/09/2020 14:10:20 12 3
bbc
@66 Getoutofhere "There is another way of looking at this: its a sign of herd immunity. This has always been the most likely solution. Protect the most vulnerable and just let the virus do its worst." Because you get Covid 19 and either a) die or b) fully recover. Except it's not that simple. Research is ongoing into the serious long term health effects of healthy people who 'recover'.
Removed
68
25/09/2020 13:53:58 10 1
bbc
Imagine politicising a global pandemic, just imagine....
69
25/09/2020 13:55:18 36 99
bbc
R stands for random number. Yesterdays random number was 1.2....tomorrows random number will be 1.4 Meaningless twaddle to strike fear into the scared and confused.
37
25/09/2020 13:49:15 13 17
bbc
Government on the back foot as usual
70
25/09/2020 13:55:38 21 4
bbc
@37 wedontcarrybottles Government on the back foot as usual Hardly surprising when one looks around at the state of the public in this country. Not a lot of common sense out and about.
71
25/09/2020 13:55:58 8 23
bbc
Are you sure 17 to 24 year olds are not just being the most sensible group and getting tested? Maybe that is why they are testing higher.
72
25/09/2020 13:55:58 9 31
bbc
WELL DONE BORIS AND DOM CUMMINGS - the tough well thought out robust measures that you are taking are JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED! We’ll be over this in no time. GREAT WORK BOTH OF YOU!!!
73
Tv
25/09/2020 13:55:58 10 2
bbc
The pirates tried to warn us: R R R R R !
74
25/09/2020 13:56:08 12 5
bbc
In November unemployment is going to take a huge leap. There is likely to be leap in virus cases too as 100,00's more people going to numerous interviews for jobs that will be scarce or none existent.
75
25/09/2020 13:56:08 16 13
bbc
Ahh here you all are. Preachers, doomsayers and no nothings I wondered where you all were. You all know better and have solutions to solve everything, except none of you give any substance to any of your reasoning. Its very very easy to make decisions when you are not the one making the decision. HYS is full of armchair geniuses
76
25/09/2020 13:56:29 11 7
bbc
This is the issue if you have a cretin for a boss then he'll force you to come in regardless of whether you need to or not, this in turn means more people on public transport making it of higher risk for those staff who actually need to go into work. The government should be focused on these fools rather than blaming the youth for going to pubs and eating out.
77
25/09/2020 13:56:29 27 67
bbc
Its looking more likely that a second national lockdown will start shortly. This time the government should keep it in place well into 2021. We have no alternative if we are to avoid the deaths of millions.
100
25/09/2020 13:59:41 4 2
bbc
@77 And what exactly makes you qualified to make that statement? Oh - nothing? Just thoughtless unfounded rubbish? Thought so.
58
25/09/2020 13:52:36 14 10
bbc
Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea.
78
25/09/2020 13:56:29 18 3
bbc
58. Posted by Snoopies78 "Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea." My girlfriend seemed to enjoy it.
92
25/09/2020 13:58:20 61 3
bbc
@78 HarderDaddy124 "Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea." My girlfriend seemed to enjoy it. ~~~ She certainly did.
79
25/09/2020 13:56:49 127 16
bbc
Minglers at the school gates... you know who you are.
150
Cam
25/09/2020 14:09:29 6 1
bbc
79. Posted by Reality on Minglers at the school gates... you know who you are. ****** Remove the “L” from minglers and there’s usually plenty of them too.
80
25/09/2020 13:56:49 10 1
bbc
coughs and colds always increase in september and autumn, just wonder if covid has a similar seasonal increase at this time of year.
81
25/09/2020 13:56:49 17 6
bbc
They need a national ban households from mixing in private homes and gardens right now, but allow businesses to remain open. All that is happening now is the economy is being trashed without any difference being made to the infection rate.
42
25/09/2020 13:50:35 24 8
bbc
Where is the data showing how people admitted into hospital contracted the virus. Just saying. Do they have children, grandchildren, teenagers ? Did they go to a pub, catch the bus or go to a certain retail shop? A standard questionnaire needs to be completed for every case. So far we a pointing fingered with no proof
82
25/09/2020 13:56:59 7 1
bbc
42 What, you mean a slightly intelligent science driven type of approach? Come now, we are British, such behaviour will never ever do, still upper lip, and carry on
83
25/09/2020 13:57:19 11 9
bbc
So where is this world class test and trace system Didlido whoever who is being paid a fantastic wage to deliver??? Meanwhile more are catching covid and many more dying. Boris is so smug...
84
25/09/2020 13:57:19 11 1
bbc
We opened the door wide, the horse bolted, mybe not so wide would have been a more sensible approach...
23
25/09/2020 13:47:03 394 95
bbc
To those who are trying to downplay this, a word of advice. Do not try picking a fight with an exponential. You will lose.
85
25/09/2020 13:57:19 129 24
bbc
23. Tortoise To those who are trying to downplay this, a word of advice. Do not try picking a fight with an exponential. You will lose. -- You are not wrong, but the problem is those trying to downplay the pandemic wouldn't know an exponential if one smacked them in the face and kept smacking them in the face with ever increasing rapidity. Be fun to try it though.
86
25/09/2020 13:57:19 5 16
bbc
What’s needed is a government who are determined to halt this disease in its tracks, enforce the measures needed to achieve it, a government like China.
116
25/09/2020 14:02:24 146 12
bbc
@86 sreips "What’s needed is a government who are determined to halt this disease in its tracks, enforce the measures needed to achieve it, a government like China. " ~~~ Minus the Uighur concentration camps.
87
25/09/2020 13:57:29 10 3
bbc
We are screwed. Some are treating testing as a panacea. In contact with someone with covid-19 -> isolate. Negative test on day 2 -> isolate, isolate, isolate. Negative test is not a license to party and go on pub crawls. The majority of the population are paying the price in jobs, debt, NHS and freedom for the actions of a sizable irresponsible minority.
59
25/09/2020 13:52:56 12 8
bbc
Can somebody tell me why the Pubs are the fall guy for the government ?. Cases have risen sharply since the start of September when the schools etc went back and Boris told office staff to get back to work and stop working from home. You could not make it up
88
25/09/2020 13:57:39 126 22
bbc
59. Posted by wayne on Just now Can somebody tell me why the Pubs are the fall guy for the government ?. Because 'social distancing' (sic) has not been followed in pubs, bars, street parties and raves You would think that if an 18 year-old was sufficiently intelligent to go to University, then they'd also be able to follow social distancing. Obviously not the case for so many!
89
25/09/2020 13:58:10 4 12
bbc
Lockdown Now! Panic!!!
90
25/09/2020 13:58:10 51 11
bbc
The focus on deaths only is causing many to believe there's not that much of a risk or problem, (especially as deaths are strongly in the 70+ age group). But we need to start measuring and sharing the effects on people of all ages who are infected but survive. Doctors are seeing a lot of Heart Damage, Brain Damage, Kidney Damage and of course Lung Damage, in ALL ages who contract Covid.
91
25/09/2020 13:58:20 23 39
bbc
And one wonders why the snowflakes are back at university - the least trustworthy of all age groups due to attitude/awareness problems. Test every single one of them, leave those infected behind until they can come out of quarantine and get the healthy ones home to study a meaningless degree from there.
78
25/09/2020 13:56:29 18 3
bbc
58. Posted by Snoopies78 "Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea." My girlfriend seemed to enjoy it.
92
25/09/2020 13:58:20 61 3
bbc
@78 HarderDaddy124 "Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea." My girlfriend seemed to enjoy it. ~~~ She certainly did.
93
Cam
25/09/2020 13:58:30 20 8
bbc
BBC HYS aka ‘Who is the finger of blame being pointed at today?’ A) Boris B) Students C) The Chinese D) Prof Whitty E) Sheeple F) Brexit G) Asylum Seekers in boats H) Anyone but yourself
104
25/09/2020 14:00:23 1 1
bbc
93 wrongopinion You said “ My girlfriend seemed to enjoy it” Really ?
126
25/09/2020 14:03:56 5 9
bbc
@93 BBC HYS aka ‘Who is the finger of blame being pointed at today?’ A) Boris B) Students C) The Chinese D) Prof Whitty E) Sheeple F) Brexit G) Asylum Seekers in boats H) Anyone but yourself _ A and C because they are as culpable today as they've always been Bit like hovis
94
25/09/2020 13:58:30 11 19
bbc
Test before you see your grandparents policy or anyone with underlying health issues and let us all get back to normal life, more people are dying of the flu.
95
25/09/2020 13:58:50 7 1
bbc
Going to be a long winter. Happy Christmas
96
bbc
here`s a little blinder !!! Matt ( Tony ) Hancock moved the responsibility for the track and trace system from public health england to a company called Sertec. Guess who is a director of Sertec ? Matt ( TONY ) Hancock You couldnt make it up . along with Patrick ( herd Immnuity ) Vallance having a shares Glaxo Smith Kline LOL Removed
97
25/09/2020 13:58:50 74 11
bbc
I wish people would stop whinging and be grateful we're living in a wealthy country with all the facilities we have in place to take care of the people. Stop being so wet, it's no hardship to adhere to a few simple precautions until we have a vaccine.
34
25/09/2020 13:48:44 6 1
bbc
I've been doing my own estimates. From cases R is daily new cases/ 7 day average ten days earlier. R = 6634/3004 = 2.2 From growth rate R= 1+daily rate of rise* generation time R=1+0.22*5 = 2.1
98
25/09/2020 13:58:50 4 0
bbc
34 Entropic Man. I understood the infection cycle time for Covid to be 5 days - that’s the number that was used by Witty etc. explaining R a while ago. So if cases double every 10 days, then R would actually be r2 or 1.41.
204
25/09/2020 14:17:13 1 1
bbc
98 WarwickGatesWhiteon "So if cases double every 10 days, then R would actually be r2 or 1.41." The epidemiology formula for R from growth rate is R = 1+ growth rate* generation time. We agree on 5 days for the generation time, but you are using a growth rate about half mine. How do you suggest I calculate growth rate from the available data?
99
25/09/2020 13:59:21 20 29
bbc
No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer. the long term effect of the lockdown could be worse than the virus in terms of effect on society, mental and physical health and the economy. Everything in life has a risk and this is yet another. We don't stop the world for any other risk, however high the "experts" claim it is.
114
25/09/2020 14:02:04 125 34
bbc
@99 “ No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer. the long term effect of the lockdown could be worse than the virus in terms of effect on society, mental and physical health and the economy.” Tell you what then. Get infected on purpose then go and see your 80 year old grandad. Then let me know what you think of your idea once he’s dead.
129
25/09/2020 14:04:47 9 3
bbc
99 Barrie You said “ No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer” If there were only 100 people in the world I would probably agree with you But there isn’t and in this case, a small minority of several billion people is a lot of suffering.
77
25/09/2020 13:56:29 27 67
bbc
Its looking more likely that a second national lockdown will start shortly. This time the government should keep it in place well into 2021. We have no alternative if we are to avoid the deaths of millions.
100
25/09/2020 13:59:41 4 2
bbc
@77 And what exactly makes you qualified to make that statement? Oh - nothing? Just thoughtless unfounded rubbish? Thought so.