Coronavirus R number increases as cases rise
25/09/2020
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Every case is estimated to result in between 1.2 and 1.5 further infections, government estimates find.
51
iDOiNK
25/09/2020 13:51:46
15
9
bbc
If a vaccine is a few months away then limited lockdown to save lives make sense. However, if it continues to disappaer over the horizon (Sept, Dec and now spring) then we need to shield the vunerable and let the rest of us work on herd immunity.
Quite a lot of eminent Scientists are now saying tests are just inaccurate and picking up false positives, and advice if the positives were retested straight away they would give different result.
Seems the Government dead set on getting the vaccine rolled out. I am thinking there is more to all this scaremongering. Seems a lot of other people too are becoming suspicious.
Here we go. Lockdown 2. "This time it's for revenge." Not at a cinema near you.
The Govts approach is incomprehensible to sane people. Exactly how many deaths have there been of those say under 65 and/or have no underlying condition ? If very few - and I suspect it is - then everything should be done to shield those groups and the rest of us should be allowed to go about our lives unhindered. If herd immunity is what we want we would prob have had it by now
I recon we are about to see a huge leap in cases over the next couple of weeks given that university’s have opened again.
Expect daily number >= France and Spain
I feel pretty much safe at work and in public. The way I am going to catch the virus is if the kids bring it home from school. They are already snotty. That' s why they need ban households from mixing and kids going around their grandparents. It's inevitable it's going to go around schools so I am shocked this measure is not being taken
@51 "If [a vaccine] continues to disappaer over the horizo n... then we need to shield the vunerable and let the rest of us work on herd immunity."
Unfortunately herd immunity without a vaccine is not going to happen anytime soon, and may not even work. Would require 60-80% of the population infected (with huge associated mortality), and it is not clear that immunity is long-lasting.
https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/fr
France had 12,730 confirmed new cases on 24.9.20
France had 39 deaths from Covid 19 on 24.9.20
Casedemic in full flow then!
This is ridiculous.
No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer. the long term effect of the lockdown could be worse than the virus in terms of effect on society, mental and physical health and the economy. Everything in life has a risk and this is yet another. We don't stop the world for any other risk, however high the "experts" claim it is.
@99 “ No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer. the long term effect of the lockdown could be worse than the virus in terms of effect on society, mental and physical health and the economy.”
Tell you what then. Get infected on purpose then go and see your 80 year old grandad. Then let me know what you think of your idea once he’s dead.
@114 That's my whole point. It's a risk. I might get it I might not. If I do, I might go to see him and he might get infected. He might become ill, he might not. He might suffer badly, he might not. He might pass away, he might not. They are the risks you take in life. You balance the risk against the benefits.What you don't do, is say "it has a risk", I won't do that. You would never do anything!
Does the "R" number make any sense anyway or just a construct for rubbish modelling to create headlines. Carl Hernaghan at Oford CEBM doesn't particularly rate it.
Or is the "R" factor the number of pirates you can fit on a desert island? "Rrr, Jim Lad! I thinkst the modellers does need to walk the plank me hearties, or keelhauled! Rrrrr!"
Trouble is, this detects viral RNA not virus, and we know people can shed that months after they've cleared the virus. Now, that alone would only mask an underlying rise in infections - but New Zealand experts suspect that other respiratory infections are triggering such false positives by killing off cells and releasing Covid RNA. That'd be a problem as we head into the winter cold and flu season
Let's see if the Nightingale Hospitals get used this time. It made for great news coverage when they were rapidly built and equipped; presumably with all the rainy day equipment the Government keeps 'just in case'. Amazing the equipment is so up to date! Especially as the only mothballed kit I can recall were the 50 year old Green Godess fire engines!!!! Like the stats, none of this adds up. Weird
Follow the rules and you’ll be fine.
Rules like got to restaurants and eat out but you’ll save £10.
Or rules that you can go to a friends house.
Or rules that you can go abroad on holiday.
It's the same people saying Corona Virus is a risk and we should wear masks as this telling us Brexit is "moronic suicide" and that the Earth is round. WAKE UP SHEEPLE! Luckily I read something on my uncle Gary's Facebook feed that told me the truth and I was able to use my own amazing cognitive ability to really understand what's going on. It's the University of Life taught me all I know.
120. Posted byLord Hillon
Just now
It's the same people saying Corona Virus is a risk and we should wear masks as this telling us Brexit is "moronic suicide" and that the Earth is round. WAKE UP SHEEPLE!
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I was with you until the flat-earther stuff came out. You is coo-coo crazy dude.
Some people are taking Covid-19 too personally. They don't like to be told to wear a mask by 'authoritarians'. But the virus is just a natural phenomenon, like flood water or forest fire. There's no battle of wills cos the virus has no will or intention or motive or master plan. It just happens, relentlessly and meaninglessly. If you've got an ounce of sense you will just keep out of its way.
Testing, testing, testing, blah, blah, blah, Boris's great plans to get the country back on its feet have spectacularly backfired. His & Cummings strategies have cost untold lives, job's & money. It was fairly obvious when the schools & offices were reopened, this coupled with more testing, cases would rise. Its about time this lame duck of a PM & his advisors were brought under control.
Still a tiny percentages when you look at our population. History will view this as a massive over reaction where the perceived cure did more damage than the disease.
@124. Posted byTrust no oneon
25 minutes ago
Still a tiny percentages when you look at our population. History will view this as a massive over reaction where the perceived cure did more damage than the disease.
--
The questions we should be asking are
Why the cost of the cure to the UK is massively more to the UK than any other developed nation? And
Why we had so many more deaths?
This whole thing would be so much easier if I actually had faith and confidence in our politicians.
I simply don't trust them. They all seem to be self-serving, egocentric, power grabbers.
I just struggle to believe they are acting for the greater good, and not for their own agenda.
125. RichardJ
"This whole thing would be so much easier if I actually had faith and confidence in our politicians.
I simply don't trust them. They all seem to be self-serving, egocentric, power grabbers."
Upvoted on the assumption that this applies to all parties, across the board, and almost all politicians (some seem to be more conscientious).
They keep saying not enough tests are available but if the people who have no symptoms stopped going maybe there would be enough to keep it better under control. Also they should have stopped all the demonstrations that have been in the last few months. So many people have not taken this virus seriously and have been selfish. Wish some people would not put themselves first and do what they want.
I speculate whether Co19 Gov't policy will change soon, whereby the UK adopts Swedish ideas about keeping the economy going during this Pandemic!
Although the number of +ve cases appears to be increasing (probably due to more testing amongst the young), the numbers actually dying are quite small and not rising so fast, as in March/April.
Perhaps, Pubs should be closed to all under 25 !!
No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer. the long term effect of the lockdown could be worse than the virus in terms of effect on society, mental and physical health and the economy. Everything in life has a risk and this is yet another. We don't stop the world for any other risk, however high the "experts" claim it is.
What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing.
Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up? If you have a household where one has it perhaps the rest of the place has it so they all got tested and all had it. Statistics....... rubbish without some qualification folks.
R number is meaningless as most people can’t get a test again. As the number of positives has shot up 60% and we have very large cities on the verge of lockdown, I can’t help feeling the idea it’s got the same reproduction rate as the common cold is plainly incorrect
132 Carmudgeon
Time to close the bars and pubs for "the duration", restrict public transport to essential workers, suspend "the economy" - provide free vouchers for rationed essential goods and key worker travel, state control of business to force ongoing supply - and place inessential 17-24 year old under house arrest.
I could not agree more. Such a total lockdown is the only way.
Allowing this flu to let rip is our only way out of this!
All this fluffing about with R numbers, locking this and that down, fudging figures, destroying people’s life’s and lively hoods is nothing more than a governmental power trip and is absolutely futile!!
Time to close the bars and pubs for "the duration", restrict public transport to essential workers, suspend "the economy" - provide free vouchers for rationed essential goods and key worker travel, state control of business to force ongoing supply - and place inessential 17-24 year old under house arrest.
The weird hair guy and co ( cohorts) really need to get a grip. Or are they capable?. First it was masks don't help,now they are compulsory, then lockdown, then go out and eat and be merry, it's nearly over,'oh good gracious what do we tell them now?! Look out Boris there is big problem heading your way and we are the ones suffering. No amount glib anecdotes will solve it Move over Boris
Why if the infections are increasing so rapidly and the main symptom is coughing then why is nobody coughing?
On TV, on train, in supermarkets nobody is coughing.
Something does not add up! Please explain somebody?
137. Posted byDavid Icke for prime ministeron
Just now
Why if the infections are increasing so rapidly and the main symptom is coughing then why is nobody coughing?
On TV, on train, in supermarkets nobody is coughing.
Something does not add up! Please explain somebody?
Answer - Because if you start coughing you stay home - simple enough
137. David Icke for prime minister
have you heard of the word 'asymptomatic'?
and if someone was coughing in public repeatedly, do you think the mob would let them hang around for long?
The number of people testing positive is not a reliable indicator. Listen to this clear and factually accurate comment.
https://hubpages.com/politics/Pfizer-Chief-Science-Officer-Second-Wave-Based-on-Fake-Data-of-False-Positives-for-New-Cases-Pandemic-is-Over
My goodness we're tired of this 'casedemic'
Sweden and Belgium have just dropped the PCR test as it's just not accurate enough. Now doing probably what should be done here - testing people admitted to hospital with the virus. Not sure that would be sexy enough for the media though?
Time for age-based tailored protection of the vulnerable.
The rest of us can get on with our live.
Lord Sumption’s analysis of this is plainly correct.
You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found.
Such a lockdown is plainly impossible, and a grossly disproportionate interference with our civil liberties.
Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with our lives.
@15. adraxis
Quote, "take sensible precautions"
And there lies the problem, you are right about getting on with our lives, but it's very difficult when there's so many idiots out there. Called on at the last minute to take my Grandson to school, we were the ONLY two wearing masks, obviously our Governments first mistake of many was to assume everyone had some common sense, WRONG
145. Posted byLamboon
..Called on at the last minute to take my Grandson to school, we were the ONLY two wearing masks, obviously our Governments first mistake of many was to assume everyone had some common sense, WRONG.
---
By tomorrow the right to do this will probably be taken away from you by the Gov't. Are you going to break 'their' law or not see your grandson for months?
Fake news?
Who would have thought this would happen, Only the half WITS - Bojo , Dom and the YES MEN in government didn't see this coming. No one in the country is listening anymore
147. mike
"Who would have thought this would happen, Only the half WITS - Bojo , Dom and the YES MEN in government didn't see this coming. No one in the country is listening anymore"
And therein lies the problem. The scientists and government are telling us how to stay safe but no-one is listening because everyone thinks they know better. Social distancing is the key to this.
People prepare for a really bad period, much worst than March this year.
This period will last well into 2021 no quick fews weeks in and then start getting back to normal this time.
The scientists at the minute are like rock stars or they think they are.
You Have Patrick ( Herd immunity ) Vallance
Chris ( I project 50,000 cases a day by October ) Witty
Neil ( I will visit my Mistress for some nookie in lock down ) Ferguson
Scientists have never had power before all this Covid , the trouble is now they have the power , they dont want to let it go !!!!!!!!
137. Posted byDavid Icke for prime ministeron
Just now
Why if the infections are increasing so rapidly and the main symptom is coughing then why is nobody coughing?
On TV, on train, in supermarkets nobody is coughing.
Something does not add up! Please explain somebody?
Answer - Because if you start coughing you stay home - simple enough
151. Posted bywellineveron
Why if the infections are increasing so rapidly and the main symptom is coughing then why is nobody coughing?
-
Answer - Because if you start coughing you stay home - simple enough
-
Good try. Lots of people not not being tested so you would expect to to hear the odd cough or two. I have considered asymptomatic cases?
Selfish behaviour is responsible for the increase in cases not government policy. I must admit I have lost all sympathy with students. They have had a six month holiday, been given over-inflated grades for the exams and are now spreading the disease at university.
But hey they have had it so tough and their mental health suffers if they can't hug someone they only saw the day before.
When is a local lockdown not a local lockdown?
When the whole country is in a local lockdown.
Lockdowns will not work because those causing the problem will always ignore it.
We have enough evidence to show that even a national lockdown only delays the spread. Rather like filling a hole on a badly potholed road. We all know it will be as bad or worse in a few months.
Keep yourself safe
Xmas has been cancelled this year.
There is another way of looking at this: its a sign of herd immunity. This has always been the most likely solution. Protect the most vulnerable and just let the virus do its worst.
In other words behave exactly as we do every year when the inevitable new virus appears. There have been worse epidemics in the past 20 years with more deaths. But we did not wreck the economy to get over it.
@66 Getoutofhere
"There is another way of looking at this: its a sign of herd immunity. This has always been the most likely solution. Protect the most vulnerable and just let the virus do its worst."
Because you get Covid 19 and either a) die or b) fully recover. Except it's not that simple. Research is ongoing into the serious long term health effects of healthy people who 'recover'.
R number is meaningless as most people can’t get a test again. As the number of positives has shot up 60% and we have very large cities on the verge of lockdown, I can’t help feeling the idea it’s got the same reproduction rate as the common cold is plainly incorrect
132 Carmudgeon
Time to close the bars and pubs for "the duration", restrict public transport to essential workers, suspend "the economy" - provide free vouchers for rationed essential goods and key worker travel, state control of business to force ongoing supply - and place inessential 17-24 year old under house arrest.
I could not agree more. Such a total lockdown is the only way.
Its Rampant
As we knew it would be after the ale houses opened.
The scientists at the minute are like rock stars or they think they are.
You Have Patrick ( Herd immunity ) Vallance
Chris ( I project 50,000 cases a day by October ) Witty
Neil ( I will visit my Mistress for some nookie in lock down ) Ferguson
Scientists have never had power before all this Covid , the trouble is now they have the power , they dont want to let it go !!!!!!!!
Who cares anymore.
163: "Surely the focus should be on deaths rather than cases?" and "misinformation"
Great - let's relax and look back in 2 years time at the totals of deaths, bereaved, people ill with "Long Covid", lost jobs, damage to civil liberties, mental health etc - and the level of investment lost to the 30 or so countries that are successfully controlling the virus, and decide our focus then?
Happy?
Doing my weekly food shop yesterday there were 10 customers and several staff without masks on. It's times like this that show why laws and regulation are always required and you can't rely on people to do the right thing as regardless of what they're told people will still behave like thick idiots.
165 - concentrate on your shopping stop spending time watching others. The ten plus may have valid reasons for not wearing a mask. Shop quickly move on. There will never be 100% compliance. I am in the age vulnerable group but accept that my well-being is not necessarily high on others agenda.
@99 “ No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer. the long term effect of the lockdown could be worse than the virus in terms of effect on society, mental and physical health and the economy.”
Tell you what then. Get infected on purpose then go and see your 80 year old grandad. Then let me know what you think of your idea once he’s dead.
@114 That's my whole point. It's a risk. I might get it I might not. If I do, I might go to see him and he might get infected. He might become ill, he might not. He might suffer badly, he might not. He might pass away, he might not. They are the risks you take in life. You balance the risk against the benefits.What you don't do, is say "it has a risk", I won't do that. You would never do anything!
People seem to constantly ask for "clarity" when despite government confusion, the message is crystal clear...
The more people you mix with the greater the risk of contracting Covid 19
It really is that simple
Like Brexit there are two camps.
Those who like curtain twitching and hiding from the world in case the boogy man gets them. Nothing that can be said will make them feel safe.
Then there are those who prefer to get on with living.
Fear never stopped anyone dying, sure as hell stops you living though.
The facts are that without a vaccine or other very effective treatment everyone is going to have to catch it and either recover or not - harsh I knew but that is the reality. If there is no realistic hope of either of those two things in the foreseeable future we may as well just get on with it and stop trashing everything else
@171kesa9
I don't get that impression at all
I think from the comments on here that people just want to live their lives but get the right balance between being cautious and getting on with life
It's typical of the Boris divide and hate school of politics that seeks to stereotype people in the way that you describe
We just need a mature, level headed leader. A uniter not a divider
The cases have gone up almost seven times not seven fold. That's factually incorrect.
The last time the 7 day average for new cases was this high was back in mid April at just under 5000. The average 7 day deaths back then was 943. The average 7 day deaths now is 27. This is due to all the efforts made by everyone. Lets keep it up!
Remember "flattening the curve" ? That was and is all about spreading the number of deaths over a longer period but NOT reducing the number overall. The same number will die (though some will be saved by better therapeutics) but not in a short space of time. Lockdowns are to slow the deaths and stop swamping the NHS. No-one in Govt wants bodies in corridors or containers like in the States.
The first wave could be put down to the Government under estimating and trivialising a novel virus, perhaps we can ignore the 10 years of underfunding of our PH surveillance network.
The second wave however, is down to criminal negligence. Billions given in contracts to known associates of the cabinet. Net benefit to the country, zero.
If we cannot call it corruption, what can we call it?
@175. SouthEast8
Wrong. The first wave you can cite some decisions that with hindsight were bad, but not out of line with many others. You can argue that's not acceptable if you'd like.
But you cannot blame the second wave on that. The public are fully understanding of what the virus is, what it does and how it spreads.
But they choose to ignore the rules.
It was known cases would ride after lockdown ended.
Is the plan just to have on and off lockdowns until there’s herd immunity.
I don’t think we are being told the plan, as the government know the vaccine is not guaranteed.
To those of you who think that this is ridiculous, we are picking up more cases, now, because of testing, that's not to say that we didn't have just as many community cases, last time. We went into "lockdown" with only 67 daily deaths and we saw what followed. You need to get sick enough to die and that takes time. Many of those who are not particularly sick have been left with bad health issues.
@177. I thought that. More cases found because of more testing. In their briefing, Chief Lizard and Wotsit McWotsitface said it was not due to testing more.
So it could be like some viruses, the virus lives in you for months. We don't know how many people tested positive, then negative, then positive again.
If it lives for months, then trying testing is fruitless. Just lessen the effect.
Unis and colleges, with the exception of medical courses, should not have re-opened. Most of the courses are being done virtually so what was the point in having mass student migration. This academic year will be an expensive waste of money. I feel sorry for them. They just want an education. An education many of the blaming commenters got for free.
178. Posted by Leggy Peggy on 1 minute ago
Unis and colleges... courses are being done virtually so what was the point in having mass student migration.
--------
Can't do that - the unis would lose all the income from renting the accomodation...
The Unis have been letting the country down for years, they're more money than education orientated.
They want the money not the students.
Selling panic! ONS estimations not better than the ICL models. How many of these tests are actual positives? There has been no challenge as to the efficacy of them wrt false positives. The implications of the overt discrepancy between the trajectories of UK positive tests(up) and diagnoses, hospital admissions and deaths (all down / flat / not correlated) need to be explained.
"Coronavirus cases in England up 60% in a week"
We urgently need to stop testing people to avoid any lockdowns. Please make sure you don't take any tests. Average age of Covid19 death is 83 years old so testing is not required for most people.
Removed
@181. Neo
More bashers who don't know the facts. This data is not from people booking tests because they think they have it but instead widespread community testing where people are asked - symptoms or not - to take a test to understand the undetected spread. Telling people not to get tested won't stop this data.
Unfortunately it doesn't really surprise me.
this is madness open the country , no 6 maximum if your part of a hunting party , so i suggest any of us that wants to go to the theatre or a concert we all meet up n kick a pigeon up n down Oxford Street beforehand , welcome to tory dystopia
We are faced with a serious problem that needs to be dealt with by people of intelligence, imagination, courage and honesty. What we do have is a bunch of buck-passing, spineless nitwits
UK,s high dependency on Alcohol that results in extra close contact has played a major part.
Surely we all knew this was going to happen as the Autumn arrived. Good people are working on it in the labs and will come through for us as soon as they can.
In the meantime, lets not crash the economy for the next generation. Protect the vulnerable as best we can, follow the basic hygiene rules and keep going.
Others have faced far worse.
Can't wait for 1st Jan, still middle of pandemic and a likely 'no deal' Brexit kicks in.
January 2021 will be a right royal dog's dinner. Hope the country is strong enough to handle all this.
The Uks chief scientific advisor has £600 thousand of shares in the company that has been awarded the contract to develop a vaccine.
Now. Use that piece of fact as your starting block when trying to decide whether we are in the midst of a catastrophe or a complete and utter con of biblical proportions!
https://www.rt.com/uk/501577-uk-scientific-advisor-vaccine-maker-shares/
Removed
191. The UK is Bust
The Uks chief scientific advisor has £600 thousand of shares in the company that has been awarded the contract to develop a vaccine.
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And also owns no shares in the *other* companies also creating the vaccines.
He has those shares as a result of working there. Would you rather the chief advisor had no experience in the field and thus no shares?
Xmas has been cancelled this year.
If you carry a cash till or credit card reader with you, you can go anywhere and do whatever you like though.
Don't forget even amongst the 16 - 29 year old covidiots who are supposed to self isolate, only 1-IN-10, a spectacularly low number, actually isolate. 50% went down pub(s) instead of isolating. With this mentality there is little hope that is why we are screwed until next spring.
Looks very much like a national lockdown is coming soon.
Won’t be much of a Christmas!
196.Tio Terry
Looks very much like a national lockdown is coming soon.
=With over 6000 cases per day and up 60% per week, the country should have been lockdown already, but, again bojo is hiding not to know what to do
The first wave could be put down to the Government under estimating and trivialising a novel virus, perhaps we can ignore the 10 years of underfunding of our PH surveillance network.
The second wave however, is down to criminal negligence. Billions given in contracts to known associates of the cabinet. Net benefit to the country, zero.
If we cannot call it corruption, what can we call it?
@175. SouthEast8
Wrong. The first wave you can cite some decisions that with hindsight were bad, but not out of line with many others. You can argue that's not acceptable if you'd like.
But you cannot blame the second wave on that. The public are fully understanding of what the virus is, what it does and how it spreads.
But they choose to ignore the rules.
197. Bob
~
The Public did not place contracts with Serco Track and Trace.
The Public did not award meaningless PPE contracts with party donors
The Public did not appoint Dido Harding or cause the exam fiasco
The Public did not U turn over return to work
The Public wanted cummings sacked over Barnard Castle.
The Public ignore Johnson because of his cronyism and bad leadership.
Selfish behaviour is responsible for the increase in cases not government policy. I must admit I have lost all sympathy with students. They have had a six month holiday, been given over-inflated grades for the exams and are now spreading the disease at university.
But hey they have had it so tough and their mental health suffers if they can't hug someone they only saw the day before.
How many vaccines against other corona viruses have been successful in past 20 years ?
Re 199 PaulH: against what particular coronavirus has there been a serious attempt to create a vaccine apart from SARS-Cov-2 (Covid-19)?
199 PaulH
"How many vaccines against other corona viruses have been successful in past 20 years ? "
Two commercial coronavirus vaccines are in use for cats and dogs and there is a widely used vaccine for chickens.
A SARS vaccine was developed, but SARS was contained before it could be tested.
199PaulH
How many vaccines against other corona viruses have been successful in past 20 years ?
******
That is a question without context.
This situation is unprecedented. There is collaborative international working internationally across scientific and private sectors too. There is also effectively unlimited funds available too.
There is significant rapid progress being made.
The numbers tell me that too many people fail to understand the seriousness of this disease. Instead, they give the impression of seeing it as something the nasty government has imposed on them! Unfortunately, Boris hasn't the Churchillian presence to convince them otherwise. If he had, we'd be fighting it (on the beaches and elsewhere) as hard as it needs to be!
@200
The numbers tell me that too many people fail to understand the seriousness of this disease. Instead, they give the impression of seeing it as something the nasty government has imposed on them
_
Aye, the same crowd who would blame the EU
But hey voted for brexit
Hopefully this will at least mean they don't vote Tory again