Coronavirus R number increases as cases rise
25/09/2020
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Every case is estimated to result in between 1.2 and 1.5 further infections, government estimates find.
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Wrongopinion
25/09/2020 13:42:51
37
34
bbc
R number comes down.....BBC are totally disinterested....R number goes up.....
1/4 of brits are now under kinda of lockdown and MASSIVE numbers of univ students are stuck in packed halls "scared and confused". I predicted this to happen in other HYS when the gov demands back to schools and univ
Next week this time, 1/3 of brits will be under kinda of lockdown for sure
Well, never mind, I am out of this COVID UK !
Lockdown 2 needed
Clearly the eat to help and back to office advice backfired
Panic buying started and furlough ending
A winter of mass unemployment
"Rates are currently highest in those aged 17-24"
Well what a surprise - the age group that throughout lock down behaved as if nothing was happening, went on hols and now spreading it around unis.
And @3. No we do not need lockdown 2. From what I saw most office workers didn't go back. Panic buying is not needed. People need to calm down and just follow the rules we have.
Removed
4. Tagnuts
"I'm off to buy toilet roll "
Too late. Its all gone. You should have panicked like the other idiots. Perhaps buy a few newspapers? Much better value, read then use.
Gosh what was all that money for if we have ended up back at sq 1
A lot of employers ditching a lot of older employees
I am seeing my job offered at 1/2 of what I used to get paid
5.What Is Your Problem
Gosh what was all that money for if we have ended up back at sq 1
A lot of employers ditching a lot of older employees
I am seeing my job offered at 1/2 of what I used to get paid"
whooooa! if that's true u must have been ripping your employer off no wonder so many businesses fail with such greedy employees
Dr Nicola Steedman, Scotland Deputy CMO, just admitted live at the daily briefing that one of the reasons they don’t mass test students is that those with no symptoms being tested increases the chances of false +ve’s and therefore students having to self isolate unnecessarily. Implication is that the number of 'cases' UK wide is unreliable.
6. Posted by Bill Mysterious
" Implication is that the number of 'cases' UK wide is unreliable. "
Not when the hospital admissions and number of deaths start to increase at a similar rate. That is unequivocal evidence I would suggest.
6 mths down the line still no 100% decent App orTest/Trace millions of pounds thrown down the drain and thousands of numpties walking round London like they are immortal.Virus that is truly frightening but cabinet with attitude of our way or no way not helping.Final chapter of exit from EU approaching with what appears to be no deal chaos.Time for Parliament to get a grip of this cabinet.
Had to get bus today for hospital appt. Young teenager took mask off and told friend 'I feel sick but at least we don't have to go to school' They were supposed to be isolating at home. I got off bus and walked.
Same parents who said it was dangerous for kids to go back?
If your kids are sent home, keep them home
@7
We don’t know if this happened the way you report
We don’t know that the teen in question had CV19 or CV19 symptoms which would mean they should self-isolate
We don’t know if the teen’s parents were aware of, or their role in, the teen being on the bus
But hey, it provides an opportunity for HYSers to focus on one of their many pet hate groups - “PARENTS”
So, jobsagoodun, eh?
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@ 8 41. Posted by Just now on
Just now
Very heartening new on Covid 19
Infection rate is soaring
Death rate remains the same
——
Errrm no. You cannot compare today’s infection rate with today’s death rate, on average it takes 23 days to die from covid following a positive test.
Therefore you will need to revisit your statement in about 3 weeks time.
Well, the dying ember of good news is that it isn't doubling each week, only every 10 days or thereabouts. Otherwise, this is not good at all, and I don't think the measures put in place this week will have a massive effect overall, and certainly won't get R under 1 - which previous required a very restrictive lockdown. Hopefully the understandable student new term mingling is over.
@9 Graham
...I don't think the measures put in place this week will have a massive effect overall, and certainly won't get R under 1...
==
It surely doesn't help to announce a new restriction three or four days before it comes into force? Of course a lot of the stoopid & inconsiderate idiots will be out trying to make the most of it before the deadline . . . ! Gee, I wonder what happens then?
“Infections rates are highest in the north west of England and in London.”
If the scenes circulating online from London last night of the 10pm curfew effects are anything to go by, the infection rates here won’t drop anytime soon, where the resultant weakness of everyone leaving pubs, etc. and descending onto transport networks all at once was exposed.
Here we go. Lockdown 2. "This time it's for revenge." Not at a cinema near you.
If this coronavirus is increasing dramatically amongst the population, then can we assume that daily briefings will be reintroduced soon?
Lies, damned lies, and ONS statistics
Lord Sumption’s analysis of this is plainly correct.
You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found.
Such a lockdown is plainly impossible, and a grossly disproportionate interference with our civil liberties.
Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with our lives.
@15. adraxis
Quote, "take sensible precautions"
And there lies the problem, you are right about getting on with our lives, but it's very difficult when there's so many idiots out there. Called on at the last minute to take my Grandson to school, we were the ONLY two wearing masks, obviously our Governments first mistake of many was to assume everyone had some common sense, WRONG
@15
Easier said than done.
Trying to ask under 30s to take precautions is like asking the government to cut our taxes by 50%. Not going to happen.
15. Posted by adraxis (currently top answer)
The problem is not everyone is/have been taking sensible precautions so that the rest of "us" can get on with our lives
It's been said before
"If this virus only affected the 18-30 group there'd be plenty of snitching and social media negativity (with zero protests) towards those flouting existing guidelines....
@15 adraxis
"Lord Sumption’s analysis of this is plainly correct.
You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found."
How on earth is this nonsensical comment rated number 1?
A proper quarantine across the world would have seen the virus die out and that should still be the way forward now. If a virus has no one to infect it has nowhere to go!
@15 adraxis
...You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found.
Such a lockdown is plainly impossible...
Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with our lives.
==
Fewer infected people means less chance of getting infected. Lockdown should've started earlier and eased more slowly. Well done (again!) Bojo & Gollum. NOT!
15. Posted byadraxison
25 Sept 2020 13:45
"Such a lockdown is plainly impossible, and a grossly disproportionate interference with our civil liberties."
It's not impossible.
"Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with our lives."
Let me correct that for you - "Thus, we should accept reality, take sensible precautions and get on with dying."
@15 adraxis
"Lord Sumption’s analysis of this is plainly correct.
You can only stop this virus spreading with a full lockdown until a vaccine is found."
How on earth is this nonsensical comment rated number 1?
A proper quarantine across the world would have seen the virus die out and that should still be the way forward now. If a virus has no one to infect it has nowhere to go!!!
I hope everyone now realised what a mistake it was to relax restrictions too soon. Holidays at home and overseas, “eat out to help out”, schools reopening, going back to work, and universities reopening have all helped to spread the infection and taken the country back to where it was in March.
There may be fewer deaths this autumn because so many older and vulnerable people have already died.
It's hard to imagine a more incompetent bunch than those in this Government.
As an island nation, to have struggled so much with this virus is staggering. The economic impact will be felt for a decade. From track and trace fiasco to confused messaging to the care home debacle to Barnard Castle and everything in between, these ministers should bow their heads in shame. Permanently.
@18 WillyB
It's hard to imagine a more incompetent bunch than those in this Government.
...The economic impact will be felt for a decade. From track & trace fiasco to confused messaging to the care home debacle to Barnard Castle & everything in between, these ministers should bow their heads in shame. Permanently.
==
Is there a case for charges of Manslaughter to be brought against them?
If the rate of infection is highest among those aged 17 - 24 then that is the age group that must bear the brunt of any restrictions.
In the long term the economic damage which is being done to the economy will also have the biggest impact on this age group. They will probably suffer increased taxation for the rest of their lives and may have greater periods of unemployment.
Close the pubs, for goodness' sake. Don't pretend they are a weird alternative dimension where coronavirus can't be transmitted.
Also, masks don't seem to be doing a whole lot of good, do they?
@20 Zog the Undeniable
Close the pubs, for goodness' sake. Don't pretend they are a weird alternative dimension where coronavirus can't be transmitted.
Also, masks don't seem to be doing a whole lot of good, do they?
==
Well, the masks have been shown to work BUT ONLY IF PEOPLE ACTUALLY WEAR THEM WHEN IN PROXIMITY TO OTHERS REGARDLESS OF BEING INSIDE OR OUTSIDE! And wash their hands!
Oh for goodness sakes. The only testing that was done at the height of this pandemic was hospital patients with a cough. No 17 to 24 year old was tested so you will never know if it is spreading in that age group or not.
It has probably always been there, like the infection rate in March was probably ten times what they thought.
Are they in hospital though?
21.
Oh for goodness sakes. The only testing that was done at the height of this pandemic was hospital patients with a cough.
---
It was worse. I had bad cough, temp, was struggling to breathe, resting heart rate of 120. Walked to nearby A&E (so I didn't infect ambulance crew), had to stop for breath 3 times in 15 mins. I'm 26 and reasonably fit.
Checked my SATS, sent me home. No test.
What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing.
Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up? If you have a household where one has it perhaps the rest of the place has it so they all got tested and all had it. Statistics....... rubbish without some qualification folks.
@22 Mr-Angry-dave-kent
"What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing. Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up?"
Do pay attention: more testing does NOT influence the R number, which is a RATE, not a number of reported cases. More tests means, in fact, that our ESTIMATE of the R number becomes more accurate.
22. Posted by Mr-Angry-dave-kent
The number of positive cases are increasing faster than the number of tests taken are increasing. That should tell you something.
To those who are trying to downplay this, a word of advice. Do not try picking a fight with an exponential. You will lose.
23. Tortoise
To those who are trying to downplay this, a word of advice. Do not try picking a fight with an exponential. You will lose.
--
You are not wrong, but the problem is those trying to downplay the pandemic wouldn't know an exponential if one smacked them in the face and kept smacking them in the face with ever increasing rapidity.
Be fun to try it though.
Well done Covaidiots.
1. Could not be bothered to wear masks on trains, planes and in store, or just hanging down around the mouth.
2. Went to illegal raves.We have civil rights mentality.
3. Attended parties/pubs;who gives a t##s what the guidance says
4. Refuse to self isolate despite being tested positive. Bit like the returning holiday from Bolton - spread it around.
Impressive!
A complete strict lockdown is what worked in China. Easing lockdown, I am fully aware of the need to balance it with economic reasons, and social distancing just do not go hand in hand. Half measure just simply won't work.
Or else, we may as well forget any measures and pray for the best. Not something I would personally opt for.
Our response to this pandemic has been passive and reactionary. We have to get a forward-looking plan together and stick to it. We need to get ahead of this thing.
Maybe that’s what the ‘6 months of measures’ is all about... but let’s see how effective it is and if we stick to it.
It's funny how demand for testing has increased so much that the testing centres are struggling to coping with the numbers & at the same time the number of found cases has increased...
"Rates are currently highest in those aged 17-24"
Well what a surprise - the age group that throughout lock down behaved as if nothing was happening, went on hols and now spreading it around unis.
And @3. No we do not need lockdown 2. From what I saw most office workers didn't go back. Panic buying is not needed. People need to calm down and just follow the rules we have.
Removed
I've been doing my own estimates.
From cases R is daily new cases/ 7 day average ten days earlier.
R = 6634/3004 = 2.2
From growth rate R= 1+daily rate of rise* generation time
R=1+0.22*5 = 2.1
34 Entropic Man. I understood the infection cycle time for Covid to be 5 days - that’s the number that was used by Witty etc. explaining R a while ago.
So if cases double every 10 days, then R would actually be r2 or 1.41.
Comment that history will repeat itself exactly and that there will be a second, bigger spike and get down-voted.
Some people just don't like the truth.
36 the spanish flu certainly had multiple spikes, the second was bigger than the first but theat may in part have been better reporting after the war. But it lasted 2 years.
Government on the back foot as usual
People going into bars and getting drunk with no social distancing, children going back to schoos and mixing, young people going to University moving from hotspot areas to other areas. People going on holidays and bringing it back and infecting others. Are we really surprised? We have been told for months that the students going to Universities would be a danger point. Opening up too much too soon
And of course that curfew at 10.00pm for those diseased drinkers and letting the university students go back as normal will sort the issue out, won't it?.........Not.
The timing couldn't have been worse really.
If only we could have a two week total lockdown to short circuit the rise, then we could look forward to Christmas and a vaccine early next year.
I know it's a balance between the economy, N.H.S. and everything else.
Very difficult.
Where is the data showing how people admitted into hospital contracted the virus. Just saying.
Do they have children, grandchildren, teenagers ? Did they go to a pub, catch the bus or go to a certain retail shop?
A standard questionnaire needs to be completed for every case.
So far we a pointing fingered with no proof
@42 wysiwyg. Spot on. I really don't care if there are 10 zillion cases. What i want to know is how many are being admitted to hospital / dying and their demographic. Are they old with lots of health conditions? All i've heard is that there is an increase in women aged 20-40 being admitted. An increase of how many? 1 is an increase on zero don't forget. Manipulating stats and denying us info again
42
What, you mean a slightly intelligent science driven type of approach? Come now, we are British, such behaviour will never ever do, still upper lip, and carry on
Hope y'all like WFH.
"Rates are currently highest in those aged 17-24"
Has the government considered the benefits of a cull?
Basically common sense has not prevailed so back to square one on the snakes and ladders board
45 "Basically common sense has not prevailed so back to square one on the snakes and ladders board "
No evidence of this of course. Just a presumption that because people went out, they didn't follow the advice.
Hancock loves people like you, it gets him and Boris off the hook.
45. ken
"Basically common sense has not prevailed so back to square one on the snakes and ladders board"
---
Why are we surprised? Look back at what else has happened.
Panic buying of toilet rolls.
Believing in Boris Johnson.
Voting for the self harm that is Brexit...
Deaths?
Deaths of healthy people without an underlying condition?
Deaths of people solely due to covid?
And yet the BBC keep telling us the number of deaths in ‘Trumps America’
The BBC are scum.
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If a vaccine is a few months away then limited lockdown to save lives make sense. However, if it continues to disappaer over the horizon (Sept, Dec and now spring) then we need to shield the vunerable and let the rest of us work on herd immunity.
@51
we need to shield the vunerable and let the rest of us work on herd immunity.
_
Will you come back and say that when you can't climb a flight of stairs because of your long covid?
Or is your computer on the first floor?
@51 "If [a vaccine] continues to disappaer over the horizo n... then we need to shield the vunerable and let the rest of us work on herd immunity."
Unfortunately herd immunity without a vaccine is not going to happen anytime soon, and may not even work. Would require 60-80% of the population infected (with huge associated mortality), and it is not clear that immunity is long-lasting.
Comment that history will repeat itself exactly and that there will be a second, bigger spike and get down-voted.
Some people just don't like the truth.
Meanwhile my office worker son could easily work from home but is not allowed to by his boss.
But hey, it's okay; the pubs are closing an hour earlier.
This country is run and populated by idiots.
https://youtu.be/pk7ycz0aHUA
Is Dominic raab saying that 93% of PCR tests are false positives?
Does that mean witty and Ballance have been making predictions from dodgy test results
Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea.
Can somebody tell me why the Pubs are the fall guy for the government ?.
Cases have risen sharply since the start of September when the schools etc went back and Boris told office staff to get back to work and stop working from home.
You could not make it up
59. Posted by wayne on Just now
Can somebody tell me why the Pubs are the fall guy for the government ?.
Because 'social distancing' (sic) has not been followed in pubs, bars, street parties and raves
You would think that if an 18 year-old was sufficiently intelligent to go to University, then they'd also be able to follow social distancing.
Obviously not the case for so many!
What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing.
Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up? If you have a household where one has it perhaps the rest of the place has it so they all got tested and all had it. Statistics....... rubbish without some qualification folks.
@22 Mr-Angry-dave-kent
"What a load of rubbish! RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRrrr nothing. Perhaps its because they are testing more that the number of cases has gone up?"
Do pay attention: more testing does NOT influence the R number, which is a RATE, not a number of reported cases. More tests means, in fact, that our ESTIMATE of the R number becomes more accurate.
61. Posted byXerblaon
Do pay attention: more testing does NOT influence the R number, which is a RATE, not a number of reported cases. More tests means, in fact, that our ESTIMATE of the R number becomes more accurate.
-
So if it makes it more accurate then it clearly does influence the R number doesn't it?
@61: "More tests means, in fact, that our ESTIMATE of the R number becomes more accurate."
@719: "So if it makes it more accurate then it clearly does influence the R number doesn't it?"
No; google 'population vs. sample statistics'. 'The R number' is a real thing, an actual number. But we can only estimate it. The number of tests influences the accuracy of the estimate, not R itself.
up 60% in a week
=Terrified !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, I left the COVID UK last week, eventually !!!! but don't blame me I did not warn you ALL
Where is the data showing how people admitted into hospital contracted the virus. Just saying.
Do they have children, grandchildren, teenagers ? Did they go to a pub, catch the bus or go to a certain retail shop?
A standard questionnaire needs to be completed for every case.
So far we a pointing fingered with no proof
@42 wysiwyg. Spot on. I really don't care if there are 10 zillion cases. What i want to know is how many are being admitted to hospital / dying and their demographic. Are they old with lots of health conditions? All i've heard is that there is an increase in women aged 20-40 being admitted. An increase of how many? 1 is an increase on zero don't forget. Manipulating stats and denying us info again
Deaths?
Deaths of healthy people without an underlying condition?
Deaths of people solely due to covid?
And yet the BBC keep telling us the number of deaths in ‘Trumps America’
There is another way of looking at this: its a sign of herd immunity. This has always been the most likely solution. Protect the most vulnerable and just let the virus do its worst.
In other words behave exactly as we do every year when the inevitable new virus appears. There have been worse epidemics in the past 20 years with more deaths. But we did not wreck the economy to get over it.
@66 Getoutofhere
"There is another way of looking at this: its a sign of herd immunity. This has always been the most likely solution. Protect the most vulnerable and just let the virus do its worst."
Because you get Covid 19 and either a) die or b) fully recover. Except it's not that simple. Research is ongoing into the serious long term health effects of healthy people who 'recover'.
Imagine politicising a global pandemic, just imagine....
R stands for random number.
Yesterdays random number was 1.2....tomorrows random number will be 1.4
Meaningless twaddle to strike fear into the scared and confused.
Government on the back foot as usual
Are you sure 17 to 24 year olds are not just being the most sensible group and getting tested? Maybe that is why they are testing higher.
In November unemployment is going to take a huge leap. There is likely to be leap in virus cases too as 100,00's more people going to numerous interviews for jobs that will be scarce or none existent.
Ahh here you all are.
Preachers, doomsayers and no nothings
I wondered where you all were. You all know better and have solutions to solve everything, except none of you give any substance to any of your reasoning.
Its very very easy to make decisions when you are not the one making the decision.
HYS is full of armchair geniuses
This is the issue if you have a cretin for a boss then he'll force you to come in regardless of whether you need to or not, this in turn means more people on public transport making it of higher risk for those staff who actually need to go into work.
The government should be focused on these fools rather than blaming the youth for going to pubs and eating out.
Its looking more likely that a second national lockdown will start shortly. This time the government should keep it in place well into 2021. We have no alternative if we are to avoid the deaths of millions.
Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea.
@78 HarderDaddy124
"Who would have thought that the "Eat out to help out" scheme was a stupid idea."
My girlfriend seemed to enjoy it.
~~~
She certainly did.
They need a national ban households from mixing in private homes and gardens right now, but allow businesses to remain open. All that is happening now is the economy is being trashed without any difference being made to the infection rate.
Where is the data showing how people admitted into hospital contracted the virus. Just saying.
Do they have children, grandchildren, teenagers ? Did they go to a pub, catch the bus or go to a certain retail shop?
A standard questionnaire needs to be completed for every case.
So far we a pointing fingered with no proof
23. Tortoise
To those who are trying to downplay this, a word of advice. Do not try picking a fight with an exponential. You will lose.
--
You are not wrong, but the problem is those trying to downplay the pandemic wouldn't know an exponential if one smacked them in the face and kept smacking them in the face with ever increasing rapidity.
Be fun to try it though.
What’s needed is a government who are determined to halt this disease in its tracks, enforce the measures needed to achieve it, a government like China.
@86 sreips
"What’s needed is a government who are determined to halt this disease in its tracks, enforce the measures needed to achieve it, a government like China. "
~~~
Minus the Uighur concentration camps.
We are screwed. Some are treating testing as a panacea. In contact with someone with covid-19 -> isolate. Negative test on day 2 -> isolate, isolate, isolate. Negative test is not a license to party and go on pub crawls. The majority of the population are paying the price in jobs, debt, NHS and freedom for the actions of a sizable irresponsible minority.
59. Posted by wayne on Just now
Can somebody tell me why the Pubs are the fall guy for the government ?.
Because 'social distancing' (sic) has not been followed in pubs, bars, street parties and raves
You would think that if an 18 year-old was sufficiently intelligent to go to University, then they'd also be able to follow social distancing.
Obviously not the case for so many!
The focus on deaths only is causing many to believe there's not that much of a risk or problem, (especially as deaths are strongly in the 70+ age group).
But we need to start measuring and sharing the effects on people of all ages who are infected but survive.
Doctors are seeing a lot of Heart Damage, Brain Damage, Kidney Damage and of course Lung Damage, in ALL ages who contract Covid.
And one wonders why the snowflakes are back at university - the least trustworthy of all age groups due to attitude/awareness problems. Test every single one of them, leave those infected behind until they can come out of quarantine and get the healthy ones home to study a meaningless degree from there.
BBC HYS aka ‘Who is the finger of blame being pointed at today?’
A) Boris
B) Students
C) The Chinese
D) Prof Whitty
E) Sheeple
F) Brexit
G) Asylum Seekers in boats
H) Anyone but yourself
93 wrongopinion
You said “ My girlfriend seemed to enjoy it”
Really ?
@93
BBC HYS aka ‘Who is the finger of blame being pointed at today?’
A) Boris
B) Students
C) The Chinese
D) Prof Whitty
E) Sheeple
F) Brexit
G) Asylum Seekers in boats
H) Anyone but yourself
_
A and C because they are as culpable today as they've always been
Bit like hovis
Test before you see your grandparents policy or anyone with underlying health issues and let us all get back to normal life, more people are dying of the flu.
Going to be a long winter. Happy Christmas
here`s a little blinder !!!
Matt ( Tony ) Hancock moved the responsibility for the track and trace system from public health england to a company called Sertec.
Guess who is a director of Sertec ?
Matt ( TONY ) Hancock
You couldnt make it up . along with Patrick ( herd Immnuity ) Vallance having a shares Glaxo Smith Kline LOL
Removed
I wish people would stop whinging and be grateful we're living in a wealthy country with all the facilities we have in place to take care of the people. Stop being so wet, it's no hardship to adhere to a few simple precautions until we have a vaccine.
I've been doing my own estimates.
From cases R is daily new cases/ 7 day average ten days earlier.
R = 6634/3004 = 2.2
From growth rate R= 1+daily rate of rise* generation time
R=1+0.22*5 = 2.1
98 WarwickGatesWhiteon
"So if cases double every 10 days, then R would actually be r2 or 1.41."
The epidemiology formula for R from growth rate is R = 1+ growth rate* generation time.
We agree on 5 days for the generation time, but you are using a growth rate about half mine.
How do you suggest I calculate growth rate from the available data?
No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer. the long term effect of the lockdown could be worse than the virus in terms of effect on society, mental and physical health and the economy. Everything in life has a risk and this is yet another. We don't stop the world for any other risk, however high the "experts" claim it is.
@99 “ No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer. the long term effect of the lockdown could be worse than the virus in terms of effect on society, mental and physical health and the economy.”
Tell you what then. Get infected on purpose then go and see your 80 year old grandad. Then let me know what you think of your idea once he’s dead.
99 Barrie
You said “ No lockdown and let the virus rip. The vast majority of people won't suffer”
If there were only 100 people in the world I would probably agree with you
But there isn’t and in this case, a small minority of several billion people is a lot of suffering.