Acting earlier would have cut deaths - Sage member
21/05/2020 | news | uk | 1,065
Locking down the UK sooner would have made a big difference to the death rate, a scientific adviser says.
1
22/05/2020 09:31:55 24 7
bbc
Yes we all knew that.
254
22/05/2020 11:00:12 5 2
bbc
Feel sorry for SAGE GOLD Standard scientific advice from WHO, Germany, S Korea was "Track, Trace & Isolate" Gov UNPREPARED for UK #1 Risk Our pragmatic scientific advice was how an unprepared UK makes best use of its inadequate testing capability and shortage of PPE to decide who gets these limited resources and who looses out (i.e. how to use what little we had to best minimise carnage).
487
22/05/2020 12:35:03 7 1
bbc
Gov ignored its own #1 Risk for the last 5 years: PANDEMIC Gov hid its 2016 Cygnus PANDEMIC Readiness Test Report UK was left UNPREPARED compared to other countries Risk became reality! SAGE offered the best advice given the starting point was woeful test capability and PPE Shortages. Government made hard decisions on who got those limited resources and who was left unprotected.
987
23/05/2020 17:47:10 1 0
bbc
1H - LONDON (Reuters) - When Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s senior adviser Dominic Cummings was asked on Saturday if he would consider his position, he told reporters: “Obviously not.” “You guys are probably all about as right about that as you were about Brexit: do you remember how right you all were about that?” Cummings said. Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by David Evans
2
22/05/2020 09:33:55 38 26
bbc
Although kept secret at the time, the SAGE document from 26 Feb already estimates more than 500k deaths, and 3.6M hospitalisations unless something was done to stop it. Johnson had just got back from a two week holiday, having attended no COBRA meetings up to that point. This is what happens when you elect a fantasist with history of laziness and irresponsibility.
28
22/05/2020 09:42:19 9 16
bbc
2 well_said "500k deaths" If it follows the usual pattern the coronavirus will infect 1-1/R of the population by the end of the epidemic and kill1% of them. That will be about 70% of 70 million people, 49 million infected and 490,000 dead. An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total.
3
22/05/2020 09:34:55 26 29
bbc
People blame the Conservatives for not locking down earlier but Labour would have received the exact same advice from the chief science/medical advisers, who essentially completely underestimated the virus in the early days. But now we need to try and move forwards instead of pointing fingers and obsessing over what-ifs.
563
22/05/2020 13:15:05 2 1
bbc
3. lm1950 "People blame the Conservatives for not locking down earlier but Labour would have received the exact same advice....But now we need to try and move forwards instead of pointing fingers and obsessing over what-ifs" --- So your comment suggests what would happen if Labour were in charge. While also suggesting we stop obsessing over what-ifs? ??
4
22/05/2020 09:35:55 27 16
bbc
So johnsons, is that 'good science' or 'bad science' ? Own your mess conservatives.
37
22/05/2020 09:44:40 10 11
bbc
4. Government takes advice from Science, in the shape of the SAGE committee. Lockdown plus action and response is based on that Science. All of this began at the beginning of March, it is now nearing June. This Scientist joined SAGE 'ONE' month ago, I.E. beginning of May. Yet another case of isn't hindsight a wonderful forecaster, dredged up by the BBC and those such as yourself fall for it.
5
22/05/2020 09:35:55 37 12
bbc
Too late now. We can only use the past to plan for the future. So don't lift lockdown rules too soon. Oh wait a minute...
6
22/05/2020 09:36:25 16 3
bbc
"One could point the finger at ministers and politicians for not being willing to listen to scientific advice. "You could point the finger at scientists for not actually being explicit enough. The difference between a Scientist and a Politician. A Politician would only admit to the fallibility of the Scientist...
520
22/05/2020 12:50:11 18 4
bbc
06. Cry me a Remoaneron 63.Dave There is no excuse for gross incompetence -- since this virus is unprecedented in the uk in modern times it was impossible to know the exact time to act but dont let that spoil your anti-government agenda - Please stop defending the indefensible, your leaders got it very wrong..
7
22/05/2020 09:37:16 13 19
bbc
Typical BBC of what you have been up to during this crisis. SAGE advisor states lives could have been saved if Government acted 2 or 3 weeks earlier goes the headline. Current Government (any UK Government would behave the same) operates on advice from the experts (SAGE). Further down the article we find that this advisor only joined SAGE '1' month ago.
8
22/05/2020 09:37:16 6 5
bbc
One of the government's scientific advisers has said he would have liked ministers to have acted "a week or two weeks earlier" in the virus pandemic. Sir Ian Boyd, who sits on the Sage scientific advisory group, said "it would have made quite a big difference" to the death rate. This would have made no difference to care homes, left to fend for themselves, where a lot of deaths occurred.
9
22/05/2020 09:37:16 102 42
bbc
Sir Ian does very well not to insinuate blame on anyone but at the end of the day, the buck stops at the top.
10
22/05/2020 09:37:16 15 16
bbc
Notice he has only been in sage since April hindsight is a great friend
35
22/05/2020 09:43:50 67 43
bbc
@10.ian j “Notice he has only been in sage since April hindsight is a great friend” Seriously, how low will you BoJo apologists sink?! Do you think he or SAGE were running clueless until he joined? It’s not the same as someone like you joining and starting from a point of total, utter ignorance, he got the job on merit!
11
22/05/2020 09:37:16 11 5
bbc
We can't undo something that has or hasn't been done, so let's think about how to move forward.
12
22/05/2020 09:37:46 74 41
bbc
Germany locked down at eighty deaths, Boris dithered until there were 360 deaths. That difference early on in the exponential growth is estimated to have cost some thirty thousand lives. It was the libertarian politics of Boris that drove that decision, not the science. Germany had the foresight, Boris did not.
58
22/05/2020 09:49:03 30 6
bbc
12 BobC "Germany locked down at eighty deaths, Boris dithered until there were 360 deaths" Death rate is irrelevant. Germany was able to identify high infection rates earlier because of a spike in young Germans returning from skiing in Italy and having an unusually large diagnostic testing industry. Their rate of infection triggers were probably the same as ours - just had more accurate data
357
22/05/2020 11:39:13 5 0
bbc
12. Posted byBobC The reason for the very low deaths in Germany is they had trace and trace and protected care homes, not because they locked down before us.
13
22/05/2020 09:37:46 40 13
bbc
On the 16th March, the PM advised people not to go to pubs anymore. Instead of advising people to adhere to social distancing we should have implemented a true lockdown. The rest of Europe was already in lockdown.
14
22/05/2020 09:38:06 16 15
bbc
What is this buffoon actually saying? He wasn't on the committee then so it's easy to criticise. He doesn't say ministers didn't follow the best recommendations at the time? He would have liked them to have had different advice? Or gone against recommendations? What is this idiot on about? What a useless and divisive intervention
15
22/05/2020 09:38:47 14 5
bbc
And next from the Ministry of the Bleeding Obvious?
16
22/05/2020 09:39:17 10 7
bbc
'Foresight' is not future 'hindsight', conservatives. Spin away - only fooling a few simpletons.
17
22/05/2020 09:39:17 7 4
bbc
If lockdown works, why are infection rates still so high in some parts of the country? And would an earlier lockdown have stopped the NHS spreading it within hospitals and to carehomes?
18
22/05/2020 09:39:17 11 2
bbc
I wonder if Sir Ian was involved in the Nike case in Edinburgh in February when Nicola Sturgeon says she was told by the scientists there was no need to make anything public. I'm sure at least one scientist in the BBC programme that revealed it said that if action had been taken at that time we would possibly have saved approximately 2000 lives.
19
22/05/2020 09:39:17 9 11
bbc
Vulnerable should of been shielded better but don't believe the lockdown has achieved anything other than crash the economy.
20
22/05/2020 09:39:58 13 5
bbc
France introduced a lockdown 5 days before the UK,if Macron hadn't threatened to close the UK/French border,Johnson may not have introduced the UK lockdown when he did and even more people may have died as a result.
21
22/05/2020 09:40:07 12 14
bbc
He told The Coronavirus Newscast: "Acting very early was really important and I would have loved to have seen us acting a week or two weeks earlier and it would have made quite a big difference to the steepness of the curve of infection and therefore the death rate." Must have missed his earlier advice or is this just 20:20 vision hindsight on his part?
22
tv
22/05/2020 09:40:07 12 13
bbc
Thank you Professor hindsight !
23
22/05/2020 09:40:07 16 6
bbc
Interesting commentary comparing speed of European response to those others who suffered the worst of SARS. I have great respect for Whitty & Vallance - seem very professional & highly principled. Would like to see their advice at the very earliest stages. Could it really.be that an earlier lockdown would have caused earlier rebellion nearer peak transmission and therefore greater casualties?!?
24
22/05/2020 09:41:18 14 19
bbc
Great Headline BBC - but just in case you missed the one line in the report "He started attending Sage meetings a month ago." so 22 April. As the Prof was not a member of SAGE at the time the decisions on lock down were being made his issue is with his fellow scientists who were on SAGE for not giving the Govt the right advice I take it? Or is this not a narrative we should follow
40
22/05/2020 09:45:20 15 8
bbc
24. GreyCell ‘Great Headline BBC - but just in case you missed the one line in the report "He started attending Sage meetings a month ago." so 22 April. As the Prof was not a member of SAGE at the time the decisions on lock down were being made his issue is with his fellow scientists.’ By not being there he is not implicated, free to speak for the others. We all know gov’t delayed.
25
22/05/2020 09:41:18 32 12
bbc
We don’t need experts to tell us that the Government has been late with every response. And that most of the action they have taken has been taken by pressure from the press and the opposition. The latest being paying NHS bills for foreign nurses. The result was that nothing was planned properly and nothing worked as well as it has in other countries.
38
22/05/2020 09:45:00 9 6
bbc
@25 " nothing worked as well as it has in other countries". Like Sweden's soaring death rate?
26
ada
22/05/2020 09:41:49 112 28
bbc
Should have lockdown the airports straight away
220
22/05/2020 10:48:35 5 1
bbc
26. ada "Should have lockdown the airports straight away" Probably right. But problem is, until the virus hit; at any given moment hundreds of thousands of UK nationals had an inconvenient habit of being spread across the globe - whether on holiday or for work. So no matter when the lockdown started; all these people, some carrying the infection; had to be re-patriated.
891
23/05/2020 09:43:00 7 1
bbc
26. Posted by ada on Should have lockdown the airports straight away -- By 'straight away' do you mean early December? When first case was in France? When WHO and China lied that the virus cannot make human to human transfer? That 'straight away'?
27
22/05/2020 09:42:19 16 37
bbc
Is he a member of the left wing SAGE group which pretends to be the real one ?
2
22/05/2020 09:33:55 38 26
bbc
Although kept secret at the time, the SAGE document from 26 Feb already estimates more than 500k deaths, and 3.6M hospitalisations unless something was done to stop it. Johnson had just got back from a two week holiday, having attended no COBRA meetings up to that point. This is what happens when you elect a fantasist with history of laziness and irresponsibility.
28
22/05/2020 09:42:19 9 16
bbc
2 well_said "500k deaths" If it follows the usual pattern the coronavirus will infect 1-1/R of the population by the end of the epidemic and kill1% of them. That will be about 70% of 70 million people, 49 million infected and 490,000 dead. An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total.
50
22/05/2020 09:47:12 26 6
bbc
@28. Entropic man "An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total." Defeatist nonsense - an earlier lockdown should have given chance to get an effective testing and tracing system running (hugely effective in other countries), and time for research into other medications.
29
22/05/2020 09:42:39 68 21
bbc
When making any decision, particularly one that can have dire consequences, one must consider the consequences of getting it wrong. It is also prudent to monitor the result in real time with feedback from the front line. There was no proper monitoring and anyone reporting concerns from the front line was threatened with disciplinary measures. The command culture was completely unsuited to the task
30
22/05/2020 09:42:39 13 9
bbc
These tens of thousands of idealogically-driven tory deaths are really great, hey conservatives. Don't defend the crooks - we need legal intervention.
31
22/05/2020 09:42:39 15 36
bbc
He should have told Piers Corbyn and his loony left disciples, then the death rate might have been lower.
32
22/05/2020 09:42:49 7 11
bbc
And what did the other 50+ members of Sage say?
33
MVP
22/05/2020 09:43:09 18 10
bbc
This is extremely damaging for the government. When this is all over there needs to be a full inquiry and those responsible should face the consequences
53
22/05/2020 09:48:22 6 7
bbc
33.MVP This is extremely damaging for the government. When this is all over there needs to be a full inquiry and those responsible should face the consequences --- I'm sure there will be ....and maybe as effective as Blair's WMD
56
22/05/2020 09:49:03 76 51
bbc
33MVP This is damaging for the government When this is all over there needs to be a full inquiry and those responsible should face the consequences _ Pointless They'll just bury it. Along with 'Russia', 'Jennifer', 'Cygnus, 'Boris'n'Carrie's Dodgy Holiday Fund', and anything else 'uncomfortable' in the meantime, like 'Brexit Fallout'...... #TransparentGovernmentMyRearEnd #PopulismInAction
34
Jen
22/05/2020 09:43:30 42 9
bbc
Scientists present information, the decision to ask/tell UK citizens to act is entirely political. The scientists perhaps just underestimated how hard it is to scare these particular politicians and advisers into action.
10
22/05/2020 09:37:16 15 16
bbc
Notice he has only been in sage since April hindsight is a great friend
35
22/05/2020 09:43:50 67 43
bbc
@10.ian j “Notice he has only been in sage since April hindsight is a great friend” Seriously, how low will you BoJo apologists sink?! Do you think he or SAGE were running clueless until he joined? It’s not the same as someone like you joining and starting from a point of total, utter ignorance, he got the job on merit!
36
22/05/2020 09:44:20 12 8
bbc
The headline is not well supported by the rest of the article and misleads. Sir Ian is saying had we acted earlier the pandemic would have been less severe. He is NOT saying it was clear at an earlier time that we should have acted. Nor do the conclusions of the Sage meetings in Feb early March.
4
22/05/2020 09:35:55 27 16
bbc
So johnsons, is that 'good science' or 'bad science' ? Own your mess conservatives.
37
22/05/2020 09:44:40 10 11
bbc
4. Government takes advice from Science, in the shape of the SAGE committee. Lockdown plus action and response is based on that Science. All of this began at the beginning of March, it is now nearing June. This Scientist joined SAGE 'ONE' month ago, I.E. beginning of May. Yet another case of isn't hindsight a wonderful forecaster, dredged up by the BBC and those such as yourself fall for it.
25
22/05/2020 09:41:18 32 12
bbc
We don’t need experts to tell us that the Government has been late with every response. And that most of the action they have taken has been taken by pressure from the press and the opposition. The latest being paying NHS bills for foreign nurses. The result was that nothing was planned properly and nothing worked as well as it has in other countries.
38
22/05/2020 09:45:00 9 6
bbc
@25 " nothing worked as well as it has in other countries". Like Sweden's soaring death rate?
39
22/05/2020 09:45:00 8 8
bbc
Hidden away on the bbc in a minor report is that Italy’s social services are stating that their death figures from covid could be at least 19000 higher- any reason why
24
22/05/2020 09:41:18 14 19
bbc
Great Headline BBC - but just in case you missed the one line in the report "He started attending Sage meetings a month ago." so 22 April. As the Prof was not a member of SAGE at the time the decisions on lock down were being made his issue is with his fellow scientists who were on SAGE for not giving the Govt the right advice I take it? Or is this not a narrative we should follow
40
22/05/2020 09:45:20 15 8
bbc
24. GreyCell ‘Great Headline BBC - but just in case you missed the one line in the report "He started attending Sage meetings a month ago." so 22 April. As the Prof was not a member of SAGE at the time the decisions on lock down were being made his issue is with his fellow scientists.’ By not being there he is not implicated, free to speak for the others. We all know gov’t delayed.
41
22/05/2020 09:45:51 95 22
bbc
"Basically what we in the scientific community do is give the best advice we can based on the evidence that's available to us" Yes but the British public tend to dismiss scientific advice if it doesn't suit our own preferences, whether it be social/economic, Covid19/Brexit - sadly the science doesn't seem to matter if people don't like it and don't follow it.
941
23/05/2020 14:10:41 7 0
bbc
41 bpmkent -"Covid19/Brexit - sadly the science doesn't seem to matter if people don't like it and don't follow it" There is NO "science" on Brexit, just a lot of economists, which is a very different thing given that most economic forecasts are wildly incorrect and only tend to be right by chance The problem with CV-19 & science is that science takes time to get answers to new questions
42
DSA
22/05/2020 09:45:51 22 33
bbc
Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool and the sooner everyone recognises this the sooner the backstabbing and bullsh*t with recede. No doubt he is a Labour voter trying to make a political point.
51
22/05/2020 09:48:12 86 43
bbc
@ 42 DSA "Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool" Alas, responding to a global pandemic is a political decision. Shelving the pandemic response advice, not attending COBRA meetings, ignoring the scientific advice and heading off for 2 week holiday ultimately results in lots and lots of more dead people.
103
22/05/2020 10:09:13 7 1
bbc
42 - DSA "Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool and the sooner everyone recognises this the sooner the backstabbing and bullsh*t with recede" That argument would have carried more conviction, had the Gov. not used other countries figures in their daily briefings until they reached a point where it turned against them. You can't have it both ways!
207
22/05/2020 10:27:12 10 3
bbc
42. Posted byDSA Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool and the sooner everyone recognises this the sooner the backstabbing and bullsh*t with recede. No doubt he is a Labour voter trying to make a political point. Do you see the irony at all in what you just did? You talked about only being political point scoring, then you tried to politically point score!
951
23/05/2020 14:56:14 8 3
bbc
#42.DSA - "Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool.... No doubt he is a Labour voter trying to make a political point." No doubt you are a Tory voter trying to make a political point. And such a blatant hypocrite.
43
22/05/2020 09:45:51 16 4
bbc
Anyone with a brain cell knows that care homes and the vulnerable should have been given immediate protection. Viruses including influenza always harm the old and those with existing medical conditions. The young and healthy are least affected. We now face years of financial ruin and deaths caused by operations being cancelled and people not getting the treatment they need.
44
22/05/2020 09:46:11 23 7
bbc
Minister Therese Coffey opened the "blame game" by saying the "science was wrong, & therefore Govt made wrong decisions!" This is merely showing that "the science" isn't going to take being made Boris's latest scapegoat lying down! This is likely to get very, very interesting in the coming months!
45
22/05/2020 09:46:11 9 8
bbc
Isn't hindsight wonderful! In hindsight Germany should have delayed Operation Barbarossa and taken over the whole of Europe first
46
22/05/2020 09:46:11 9 3
bbc
The cons were warned, but ignored others Foresight. Despite being Very Obvious at the time, we can also see this in Hindsight. That was for rightwing gammon . . . maybe you have friends could explain.
47
22/05/2020 09:46:21 8 15
bbc
I can't find any record of him saying this at the time so, as usual, this is just someone puffing up their own ego with the benefit of hindsight. Now if he could only invent a time machine we could go back and do things differently but he can't so it is just noise.
48
22/05/2020 09:46:41 2 6
bbc
I'm sure he would ... in hindsight. Presumably his arguments will have been fully documented at the meeting and the reasoning behind the decision to delay lockdown will be available ? Delaying any action until everyone on every committee agrees to it would mean that no decision at all would ever be reached.
49
22/05/2020 09:46:41 5 11
bbc
could have, should have, might have, hindsight is a wonderful thing We have never had this type of thing before in Europe, obviously south asia have and were prepared better. bit obvious really
28
22/05/2020 09:42:19 9 16
bbc
2 well_said "500k deaths" If it follows the usual pattern the coronavirus will infect 1-1/R of the population by the end of the epidemic and kill1% of them. That will be about 70% of 70 million people, 49 million infected and 490,000 dead. An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total.
50
22/05/2020 09:47:12 26 6
bbc
@28. Entropic man "An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total." Defeatist nonsense - an earlier lockdown should have given chance to get an effective testing and tracing system running (hugely effective in other countries), and time for research into other medications.
67
22/05/2020 09:55:06 5 5
bbc
50 well_said @28. Entropic man "An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total." "Defeatist nonsense" * No, just reality. You are thinking only of the first wave. This will not end until we reach 70% herd immunity or get a vaccine. Either will take 18 months-2 years and four or five waves, each with its own lockdown.
102
22/05/2020 10:09:13 4 6
bbc
50. well_said "Defeatist nonsense - an earlier lockdown should have given chance to get an effective testing and tracing system running (hugely effective in other countries), and time for research into other medications." __ Anti-Gov claptrap. Lockdown and research do not correlate.
757
22/05/2020 15:33:32 5 0
bbc
"50 John G Weird people saying we are so much worse than other countries. You really are a gullible bunch if you believe the figures coming out of China, Russia and North Korea to name just a few.." -- They would be very weird. A very straw man argument - must do better! Has a single Govt critic quoted any of these countries? As likely as a Johnson apologist quoting Germany or South Korea....
42
DSA
22/05/2020 09:45:51 22 33
bbc
Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool and the sooner everyone recognises this the sooner the backstabbing and bullsh*t with recede. No doubt he is a Labour voter trying to make a political point.
51
22/05/2020 09:48:12 86 43
bbc
@ 42 DSA "Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool" Alas, responding to a global pandemic is a political decision. Shelving the pandemic response advice, not attending COBRA meetings, ignoring the scientific advice and heading off for 2 week holiday ultimately results in lots and lots of more dead people.
73
22/05/2020 09:58:37 5 2
bbc
51 Dave "Shelving the pandemic response advice" We need to wait for the public enquiry. The reason no opposition politician is suggesting this and why each of the 4 nations followed the exact same path into lockdown is because they know the gov't follows a playbook for this - it is not planned on the hoof. I doubt there will be any suggestion ministers did not follow best advice up to lockdown
913
23/05/2020 12:12:57 8 3
bbc
@51 Dave @ 42 DSA "Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool" Alas, responding to a global pandemic is a political decision. Shelving the pandemic response advice, not attending COBRA meetings, ignoring the scientific advice and heading off for 2 week holiday ultimately results in lots and lots of more dead people. ~~~ Best comment here, puts Tory Bots down!
52
22/05/2020 09:48:22 37 14
bbc
Cases quadrupled in the fortnight before lockdown. We could now be looking at a death toll 75% lower if we acted 2 weeks earlier.
33
MVP
22/05/2020 09:43:09 18 10
bbc
This is extremely damaging for the government. When this is all over there needs to be a full inquiry and those responsible should face the consequences
53
22/05/2020 09:48:22 6 7
bbc
33.MVP This is extremely damaging for the government. When this is all over there needs to be a full inquiry and those responsible should face the consequences --- I'm sure there will be ....and maybe as effective as Blair's WMD
54
22/05/2020 09:48:42 9 2
bbc
Can all those who admit they didn't have the "foresight" to see the obvious risks, have the decency to stop lecturing the rest of us about "hindsight".
64
22/05/2020 09:52:54 14 1
bbc
54. rtm3333 Can all those who admit they didn't have the "foresight" to see the obvious risks _ I would say it is pretty * obvious that care home inmates would be exceedingly vulnerable- being old and having staff and visitors an' all- as they succumb to similar 'flu' very easily indeed. Wouldn't you?
55
22/05/2020 09:49:03 7 2
bbc
Priti Patel wanted to ban flights into the UK and got slapped down Wonder who did the slapping ???? Don’t have much time for her but she had this one right
33
MVP
22/05/2020 09:43:09 18 10
bbc
This is extremely damaging for the government. When this is all over there needs to be a full inquiry and those responsible should face the consequences
56
22/05/2020 09:49:03 76 51
bbc
33MVP This is damaging for the government When this is all over there needs to be a full inquiry and those responsible should face the consequences _ Pointless They'll just bury it. Along with 'Russia', 'Jennifer', 'Cygnus, 'Boris'n'Carrie's Dodgy Holiday Fund', and anything else 'uncomfortable' in the meantime, like 'Brexit Fallout'...... #TransparentGovernmentMyRearEnd #PopulismInAction
57
22/05/2020 09:49:03 5 3
bbc
This for me is a key point and begs the question where governments given misleading information from the start? "Sir Ian suggested that the government based its initial assessment on the transmissibility of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) virus, which is less infectious than this coronavirus." Surely the Chinese knew the transmission rate was not that of Sars?!
69
22/05/2020 09:56:57 5 1
bbc
@57. Posted by OpenmindedArtist on Just now Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) virus, which is less infectious than this coronavirus." Surely the Chinese knew the transmission rate was not that of Sars?! -- Probably didn't help it offically being named Sars Cov 2! How many deaths would of been saved if we stopped travel in to uk when the Chinese stopped travel out of Wuhan. 23 Jan!
12
22/05/2020 09:37:46 74 41
bbc
Germany locked down at eighty deaths, Boris dithered until there were 360 deaths. That difference early on in the exponential growth is estimated to have cost some thirty thousand lives. It was the libertarian politics of Boris that drove that decision, not the science. Germany had the foresight, Boris did not.
58
22/05/2020 09:49:03 30 6
bbc
12 BobC "Germany locked down at eighty deaths, Boris dithered until there were 360 deaths" Death rate is irrelevant. Germany was able to identify high infection rates earlier because of a spike in young Germans returning from skiing in Italy and having an unusually large diagnostic testing industry. Their rate of infection triggers were probably the same as ours - just had more accurate data
59
22/05/2020 09:49:23 65 44
bbc
Lack of foresight rather than hindsight is to blame for the Government not acting quickly to control spread. Government continually chasing their tail no clear way ahead. One trick pony
60
22/05/2020 09:49:33 36 20
bbc
Deflect tories, Deflect ! ! ! ! Hind legs today is it ? Soz, hind sight ? How are the polls lately, and dare I say the Referendum word today ;) Crooks all.
61
tb
22/05/2020 09:49:43 119 33
bbc
The simple mathematical fact is that because there was a delay from infection to death of about 3 weeks, when the lockdown was finally called the number of infections was already huge. One week earlier would have started to reduce the R value when infections were at least half that on lockdown so deaths from three weeks or so later would have been halved. Cumulatively that is thousands.
62
22/05/2020 09:51:14 8 15
bbc
Re : 57 "Surely the Chinese knew the transmission rate was not that of Sars?! " Sure they did ... unfortunately they didn't bother to tell anyone, including WHO, too busy covering it all up.
63
22/05/2020 09:52:14 35 14
bbc
In context, lots of other countries were hit by the disease ahead of the UK, yet still we sat back and our Government were the second slowest globally to take action in response to the disease. There is no excuse for gross incompetence.
106
22/05/2020 10:09:23 10 18
bbc
63.Dave lots of other countries were hit by the disease ahead of the UK,yet still we sat back and our Government were the second slowest globally to take action in response to the disease There is no excuse for gross incompetence -- since this virus is unprecedented in the uk in modern times it was impossible to know the exact time to act but dont let that spoil your anti-government agenda
54
22/05/2020 09:48:42 9 2
bbc
Can all those who admit they didn't have the "foresight" to see the obvious risks, have the decency to stop lecturing the rest of us about "hindsight".
64
22/05/2020 09:52:54 14 1
bbc
54. rtm3333 Can all those who admit they didn't have the "foresight" to see the obvious risks _ I would say it is pretty * obvious that care home inmates would be exceedingly vulnerable- being old and having staff and visitors an' all- as they succumb to similar 'flu' very easily indeed. Wouldn't you?
68
22/05/2020 09:55:56 8 3
bbc
@64. Oars Leveler "I would say it is pretty * obvious that care home inmates would be exceedingly vulnerable- being old and having staff and visitors an' all- as they succumb to similar 'flu' very easily indeed. Wouldn't you?" Of course, I agree. Hardly any part of this fiasco was not easily predictable (and predicted).
65
22/05/2020 09:42:05 4 9
bbc
SAGE, as at early May 2020, the bloke who pushed for this blasted lockdown + encouraged his bit on the side to break it; the bloke who said CCJ, Swine Flu + Covid19 was going to create mayhem with 1/2 a million dying was wildly wrong, + he's still on the panel! It is the over reaction to the virus which has caused so much heartache, lost jobs, fear from the media, + still media scare us...why?
66
22/05/2020 09:55:06 8 3
bbc
Get the tory apologists - all mobilised bless. It's not 'hindsight' 'leave'. It's foresight you lack. And concern.
50
22/05/2020 09:47:12 26 6
bbc
@28. Entropic man "An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total." Defeatist nonsense - an earlier lockdown should have given chance to get an effective testing and tracing system running (hugely effective in other countries), and time for research into other medications.
67
22/05/2020 09:55:06 5 5
bbc
50 well_said @28. Entropic man "An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total." "Defeatist nonsense" * No, just reality. You are thinking only of the first wave. This will not end until we reach 70% herd immunity or get a vaccine. Either will take 18 months-2 years and four or five waves, each with its own lockdown.
75
22/05/2020 09:59:38 13 1
bbc
@67. Entropic man "You are thinking only of the first wave." No, I'm not. As I said, if you keep infections low, and have an aggressive testing and tracing program in place, and measures to limit importing new infections, you keep it under control. You snuff out new outbreaks locally and don't get any waves.
64
22/05/2020 09:52:54 14 1
bbc
54. rtm3333 Can all those who admit they didn't have the "foresight" to see the obvious risks _ I would say it is pretty * obvious that care home inmates would be exceedingly vulnerable- being old and having staff and visitors an' all- as they succumb to similar 'flu' very easily indeed. Wouldn't you?
68
22/05/2020 09:55:56 8 3
bbc
@64. Oars Leveler "I would say it is pretty * obvious that care home inmates would be exceedingly vulnerable- being old and having staff and visitors an' all- as they succumb to similar 'flu' very easily indeed. Wouldn't you?" Of course, I agree. Hardly any part of this fiasco was not easily predictable (and predicted).
57
22/05/2020 09:49:03 5 3
bbc
This for me is a key point and begs the question where governments given misleading information from the start? "Sir Ian suggested that the government based its initial assessment on the transmissibility of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) virus, which is less infectious than this coronavirus." Surely the Chinese knew the transmission rate was not that of Sars?!
69
22/05/2020 09:56:57 5 1
bbc
@57. Posted by OpenmindedArtist on Just now Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) virus, which is less infectious than this coronavirus." Surely the Chinese knew the transmission rate was not that of Sars?! -- Probably didn't help it offically being named Sars Cov 2! How many deaths would of been saved if we stopped travel in to uk when the Chinese stopped travel out of Wuhan. 23 Jan!
70
tb
22/05/2020 09:56:57 12 1
bbc
Any competent mathematician can explain the effects of exponential growth and the R value. They can also analyse the drag effects of time from infection to symptoms to recovery or death. It has been obvious (with hindsight) to me that the main difference between high deaths and low deaths was speed (and discipline) of lockdown. Days did matter when infection opportunities were many.
111
22/05/2020 10:10:34 6 0
bbc
70 tb "and Discipline" ----------- I believe that to be the crux of the matter. If anyone dreamed (and it would have to have been a dream) that we as a nation had the discipline to adhere to a lockdown for a very lengthy period, he would have been on something you can't get over the counter.
71
22/05/2020 09:57:27 9 4
bbc
The primary problem that has resulted in so many deaths, is the NHS policy to protect itself and return geriatric patients to the community and care homes without regard to their possible infection with Covid-19. The secondary issue was not having any reasonable viral pandemic planning in place. The enforced use of masks on public transport would have curtailed the early spread of infection.
72
22/05/2020 09:58:07 4 11
bbc
'Hindlegs' tories, 'Hindlegs' !! Get IT done !! Work Harder !! We're All in IT together !! etc - guppies.
51
22/05/2020 09:48:12 86 43
bbc
@ 42 DSA "Covid-19 is a disease, not a political point scoring tool" Alas, responding to a global pandemic is a political decision. Shelving the pandemic response advice, not attending COBRA meetings, ignoring the scientific advice and heading off for 2 week holiday ultimately results in lots and lots of more dead people.
73
22/05/2020 09:58:37 5 2
bbc
51 Dave "Shelving the pandemic response advice" We need to wait for the public enquiry. The reason no opposition politician is suggesting this and why each of the 4 nations followed the exact same path into lockdown is because they know the gov't follows a playbook for this - it is not planned on the hoof. I doubt there will be any suggestion ministers did not follow best advice up to lockdown
74
22/05/2020 09:59:38 8 7
bbc
Did the adviser comment on when we locked down compared to other countries? Germany full lockdown on 22 March. UK full lockdown started on 23 March.
116
22/05/2020 10:12:15 18 1
bbc
74. Posted byhatebbcharassinglicenseletterson "Did the adviser comment on when we locked down compared to other countries? Germany full lockdown on 22 March. UK full lockdown started on 23 March." Germany had track and trace in place. Still waiting for it in the UK 2 months later
67
22/05/2020 09:55:06 5 5
bbc
50 well_said @28. Entropic man "An earlier lockdown would have reduced deaths to date, but will not affect the final deaths total." "Defeatist nonsense" * No, just reality. You are thinking only of the first wave. This will not end until we reach 70% herd immunity or get a vaccine. Either will take 18 months-2 years and four or five waves, each with its own lockdown.
75
22/05/2020 09:59:38 13 1
bbc
@67. Entropic man "You are thinking only of the first wave." No, I'm not. As I said, if you keep infections low, and have an aggressive testing and tracing program in place, and measures to limit importing new infections, you keep it under control. You snuff out new outbreaks locally and don't get any waves.
76
22/05/2020 09:59:58 8 7
bbc
When Scotland gets it's independence Prof Boyd can give his valuable hindsight to the likes of Ms Sturgeon and let England find someone who can deliver perfect foresight loud and clear. Out here in the real world he refers to iro Cummings, I'm positive that had we had lockdown earlier our beaches and parks would have been invaded earlier and we would have been in far worse condition than we are.
77
Rob
22/05/2020 10:00:18 12 10
bbc
Whats the point of this news article? We didnt so shut it
77. Rob. "Whats the point of this news article? We didnt so shut it" Oooh quality debating technique! Good to see Moscow Dom's daily e-mail brieding at work! Removed
78
22/05/2020 10:00:38 12 5
bbc
Many lives throughout the world could have been saved if China had acted with responsibility and humanity.
85
22/05/2020 10:04:21 5 7
bbc
78. Posted by pompey41 on 2 minutes ago Many lives throughout the world could have been saved if China had acted with responsibility and humanity. _ OOOOOWAH! OOOOOWAH! Put all smoke generators on full power!!! Activate Deflectors at warp speed!!!
79
22/05/2020 10:00:49 10 16
bbc
This is an appalling piece of reporting by Kuenssberg and co. The so-called statements by the scientific advisor were in response to rhetorical questioning and what he said would have been more appropriate "with hindsight". For example: "Sir Ian also called on ministers to stop saying they are "led" by the science". He didn't call on ministers to do this at all. He ws answering a question.
80
22/05/2020 10:00:49 3 4
bbc
If as is thought that CV was present in UK end-2019, then why didn't we lockdown in say Nov, stopped all flights and travel etc. until ...when, deaths
81
MVP
22/05/2020 10:01:09 12 5
bbc
It is clear from these statements that decisions made by those at the top has resulted in a human cost of this pandemic being higher than it could have been. And that is a travesty.
507
22/05/2020 12:41:36 11 4
bbc
81. Paul Genetics, geography, experience make it impossible to compare us to other countries. -- There is a clear pattern - Early action = low death rate. Tardy response= high death rate. The evidence is clear for all to see, the plain fact is the UK failed to deal with this correctly from the outset and is in real danger of compounding its failures by rushing to open up.
82
22/05/2020 10:01:09 14 5
bbc
As I have already said many times on this subject, our government has not been proactive on anything and only reactive when it is nearly too late to do anything. This is most likely linked to public opinion - because all someone cares about his public image, witness yesterdays U-turn on charging Health and social care works from oversees to access the NHS.
Models suggested that lockdown would result in 150,000 deaths from untreated cancer/domestic violence/suicide It was right not to lockdown earlier. IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT COVID
84
22/05/2020 10:03:30 11 8
bbc
Yeah we know, still waiting for Boris Johnsons apology for not acting earlier and being responsible for thousands of people dying... ...stop hiding Boris. Its cowardly...
78
22/05/2020 10:00:38 12 5
bbc
Many lives throughout the world could have been saved if China had acted with responsibility and humanity.
85
22/05/2020 10:04:21 5 7
bbc
78. Posted by pompey41 on 2 minutes ago Many lives throughout the world could have been saved if China had acted with responsibility and humanity. _ OOOOOWAH! OOOOOWAH! Put all smoke generators on full power!!! Activate Deflectors at warp speed!!!
86
tb
22/05/2020 10:04:51 2 2
bbc
Mathematical Fact - earlier shutdown would have reduced infections and death by a significant number. Mathematical Fact - without shutdown Many Many more would have died - the half million suggestion was not fictitious. Hypothesis - earlier shutdown would have reduced death by 10000 (or any other number) Hypothesis - no shutdown would have resulted in 500000 deaths
87
22/05/2020 10:04:51 2 3
bbc
(Somehow post 80 truncated) ..at what point would all you experts out there suggest would have been best to lockdown given rebellion after 8 weeks and an indeterminate peak transmission date?
88
22/05/2020 10:04:51 5 3
bbc
"Sir Ian suggested that the government based its initial assessment on the transmissibility of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) virus, which is less infectious than this coronavirus. " --- Who gave this initial assessment if it wasn't Sage? Did Sage advise a different course of action which the government ignored? It sounds like some blame-shifting is going on here.
105
22/05/2020 10:09:13 9 3
bbc
88. Hugh Pugh "Did Sage advise a different course of action which the government ignored? " As far as I remember that was known a couple of months ago.
89
22/05/2020 10:05:31 5 5
bbc
More expert analysis with the benefit of hindsight
90
22/05/2020 10:05:31 8 0
bbc
It's a pity the PM and ministers couldn't admit at the outset that they were unsure what to do, but would try and do their best but might get some things wrong; and also would explain how they reached their decisions. But politicians don't do honesty and humility.
91
22/05/2020 10:05:51 4 6
bbc
... what an individual thinks on an advisory group is irrelevant ... it is the consensus view that the govt follows ... with 20 people you will get 20 differing personal opinions ... it's a collective advice and this man should support thstxadvice or leave the group entirely
92
MVP
22/05/2020 10:05:51 21 7
bbc
The United Kingdom was in a fortunate position in February in that it was able to observe the actions taken by other nations to mitigate the impact of this pandemic. Despite this, our government failed in its responsibilities and this has cost us greatly.
93
22/05/2020 10:06:11 6 0
bbc
22 Jan Chinese tell their people to stop travel in and out of Wuhan. The UK remove arrivals to an isolated terminal. Still let the possibly infected out in the community though. 23 Jan China stopped all flights in and out of Wuhan. They probably saved a few thousand UK lives right their. The Chinese that is!
94
22/05/2020 10:06:11 10 4
bbc
Blaming the scienctific advisors, tells us that the govt have not got a clue about organising most things. The two main advisors Vallance. and Prof Chris Whitty. are lead by the ministers to say what they are told to say. The lack of proper leadership to get things done is also a big problem. The govt is very slow to do things and thats why we have lost a lot of good people to this virus.
95
22/05/2020 10:07:12 1 0
bbc
What does "Will" say ?
96
HD
22/05/2020 10:07:12 14 5
bbc
Let's be honest , Boris is a chancer!
97
22/05/2020 10:07:32 2 1
bbc
Does anyone else remember the phrase 'lockdown fatigue'?
119
22/05/2020 10:13:26 8 6
bbc
97.alice chang "Does anyone else remember the phrase 'lockdown fatigue'?" Yes, and that has turned out to be the case, which has just proved the fact that had the lockdown started earlier, we would be coming out of it much better place.
98
22/05/2020 10:08:02 5 11
bbc
Here we go...the media desperate to get a story to divide and cause bad feeling.... again! Isn't it about time that the media and journo's in particular realise that the vast majority DO NOT WANT this Pandemic politicising. A thorough look at what went right or wrong can come when it's over.
99
22/05/2020 10:08:43 11 2
bbc
This shows the weakness of not publishing the minutes of Sage meetings. No one will know whether the govt followed scientific advice or not and will undoubtedly blame the scientists for the shambles.
100
22/05/2020 10:08:53 8 9
bbc
Oh no Mr Scientist you are not being let of the hook. You have all loved every minute being front and centre of this catastrophe but now the data and information is no longer looking so positive towards the great disaster you were modelling (god help us) you want to run for the hills, afraid not....science led it was and science led it is. The Great Blame Game is about to begin.